{"id":40539,"date":"2026-03-20T00:58:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T00:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40539\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T00:58:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T00:58:28","slug":"%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e9%80%b2%e4%b8%80%e6%ad%a5%e4%b8%8b%e6%8c%ab%ef%bc%9b%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e9%a3%86%e5%8d%87%e5%8a%a0%e5%8a%87%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%81%9c%e6%bb%af%e6%80%a7%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e7%96%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40539\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u5e02\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u632b\uff1b\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u5347\u52a0\u5287\u7f8e\u570b\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u81a8\u7591\u616e\uff0c\u9053\u74ca\u8dcc\u783446,000\u9ede"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u9031\u56db\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u9053\u74ca\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u7834 46,000 \u9ede\u3002\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d04 0.8%\uff0c\u81ea 5 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u8dcc\u7834 200 \u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff08\u904e\u53bb 200 \u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\uff1b\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d04 1%\u3002\n\n\u8ce3\u58d3\u904d\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u7f85\u7d20 2000 \u6307\u6578\u81ea 52 \u9031\u9ad8\u9ede\uff08\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6700\u9ad8\u9ede\uff09\u56de\u843d\u63a5\u8fd1 10%\uff0c\u903c\u8fd1\u300c\u4fee\u6b63\u5340\u300d\uff08\u4e00\u822c\u6307\u5f9e\u9ad8\u9ede\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d04 10%\uff09\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u6307\u6578\u8f03 50,500 \u9ede\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u9ede\u56de\u843d\u7d04 9%\uff0c\u4e5f\u8dcc\u7834\u5176 200 \u65e5\u6307\u6578\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff08EMA\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u8fd1\u50f9\u683c\u6b0a\u91cd\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684 200 \u65e5\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u8f03\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u8fd1\u671f\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u7d04 46,700 \u9ede\u3002\n\n

\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u91cd\u5275\u5e02\u5834<\/h3>\n\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4e00\u5ea6\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 118 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u7d04 112 \u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u7d1a\u539f\u6cb9\uff08WTI\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u4e0a\u6f32\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1 97 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u885d\u7a81\u4f7f\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08\u91cd\u8981\u6d77\u904b\u8981\u9053\uff09\u822a\u904b\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u6bcf\u65e5\u7d04 2,000 \u842c\u6876\u4f9b\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u4f9b\u7d66\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u6b50\u6d32\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u50f9\u683c\u6700\u9ad8\u4e0a\u6f32 35%\u3002\n\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u4ee5 11 \u6bd4 1 \u6295\u7968\uff0c\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.50%\u20133.75%\u3002\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u4ecd\u986f\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff080.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6709 7 \u4f4d\u5b98\u54e1\u9810\u671f\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\uff1b2026 \u5e74\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\uff08\u6838\u5fc3\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u98df\u7269\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\u7531 2.5% \u4e0a\u4fee\u81f3 2.7%\u3002\n\nCME FedWatch\uff08\u6839\u64da\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5347\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5230 12 \u6708\u524d\u5373\u4f7f\u53ea\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4e5f\u4f4e\u65bc 60%\u3002\u521d\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u6e1b\u5c11 8,000 \u4eba\u81f3 205,000\uff1b\u7e8c\u9818\u4eba\u6578\u589e\u52a0 10,000 \u4eba\u81f3 185.7 \u842c\uff1b\u8cbb\u57ce\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6307\u6578\uff08\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u8abf\u67e5\uff09\u7531 16.3 \u5347\u81f3 18.1\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u5149\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d04 7%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6bcf\u80a1\u76c8\u9918\uff08EPS\uff0c\u6bcf\u80a1\u8cfa\u5230\u7684\u9322\uff09\u70ba 12.20 \u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u71df\u6536 238.6 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e74\u589e 196%\uff0c\u4e26\u628a 2026 \u5e74\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff08capex\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u5ee0\u623f\u8a2d\u5099\u7b49\u7684\u652f\u51fa\uff09\u4e0a\u8abf 50 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6ce2\u97f3\u4e0b\u8dcc\u903e 3%\uff0c\u5361\u7279\u5f7c\u52d2\u4e0b\u8dcc\u903e 2%\uff0cSalesforce \u4e0a\u6f32\u903e 1.5%\u3002\n\n

\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u90e8\u4f4d<\/h3>\n\u5e02\u5834\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5927\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u8207\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08\u91cd\u8996\u6253\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u50be\u5411\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3b\u5c0e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002CBOE \u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578 VIX\uff08\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4fd7\u7a31\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\uff09\u98c6\u5347\u81f3 32 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u70ba 2025 \u5e74\u521d\u9280\u884c\u696d\u4e0d\u7a69\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u6ce2\u52d5\u9577\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u4ee3\u8868\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08\u8cb7\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u6602\u8cb4\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u505a\u591a\uff08\u55ae\u7d14\u8cb7\u9032\uff09\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u3001\u98a8\u96aa\u4e5f\u5927\u3002\n\n\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u6a19\u666e 500 \u5df2\u8dcc\u7834 200 \u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u3002\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u5728\u53cd\u5f48\u6642\u9022\u9ad8\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff08\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u718a\u5e02\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cb7\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bear call spread\uff1a\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u4f86\u63a7\u5236\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u8dcc\u7834 46,000 \u986f\u793a\u58d3\u529b\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u82e5\u53cd\u5f48\u81f3\u5df2\u8dcc\u7834\u7684 46,700 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u504f\u7a7a\u5e03\u5c40\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u8f49\u5411\u9632\u79a6\u578b\u985e\u80a1\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u914d\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\uff08pair trade\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u505a\u591a\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u7684\u3001\u505a\u7a7a\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u7684\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u6574\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u5f71\u97ff\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u505a\u591a\u80fd\u6e90\u985e\u80a1\uff08XLE\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u985e\u80a1 ETF\uff09\uff0c\u53d7\u60e0\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u63a5\u8fd1 2022 \u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\u540c\u6642\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u505a\u7a7a\u5de5\u696d\u985e\u80a1\uff08XLI\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u985e\u80a1 ETF\uff09\u8207\u975e\u5fc5\u9700\u6d88\u8cbb\u985e\u80a1\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\n\n\u76ee\u524d\u74b0\u5883\u5e38\u88ab\u62ff\u4f86\u8207 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u81a8\u300d\uff08\u505c\u6eef\uff1d\u6210\u9577\u8b8a\u6162\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\uff1d\u7269\u50f9\u4ecd\u9ad8\uff09\u76f8\u6bd4\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u65bc 2025 \u5e74\u591a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u66f4\u96e3\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u58d3\u901a\u81a8\u5373\u4f7f\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5f31\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u904e\u53bb\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7684\u300c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8b77\u76e4\u300d\uff08Fed put\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u76f8\u4fe1\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6703\u5728\u5927\u8dcc\u6642\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6490\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\n\n\u5728\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u504f\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u8cb7\u9032\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u8f03\u504f\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08put debit spread\uff1a\u8cb7\u5165\u4e00\u500b\u8ce3\u6b0a\u3001\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7372\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728 SPDR \u6a19\u666e 500 ETF\uff08SPY\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e64\u6a19\u666e 500 \u7684 ETF\uff09\u4e0a\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u9032\u5834\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4fdd\u8b77\u9700\u6c42\u5f88\u5f37\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0f\u8cb7\u6b0a\u6bd4\uff08put-to-call ratio\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u770b\u7a7a\u9700\u6c42\u5f37\u5f31\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5347\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6050\u614c\u662f\u90e8\u4f4d\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u529b\u3002\n

\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 – \u9ede\u64ca\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6cb9\u50f9\u885d\u64ca\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u504f\u9df9\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5168\u9762\u4e0b\u632b\uff1a\u9053\u74ca\u8dcc\u783446,000\u3001\u6a19\u666e\u5931\u5b88200\u65e5\u7dda\uff0cVIX\u98c6\u783432\u3002\u9632\u79a6\u8f2a\u52d5\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u9022\u9ad8\u504f\u7a7a\u8207\u50f9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\u6210\u7126\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40539\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}