{"id":40468,"date":"2026-03-19T07:58:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T07:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40468\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T07:58:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T07:58:55","slug":"%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%b1%ba%e8%ad%b0%e5%89%8d%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e9%8e%8a%e5%8d%87%e5%90%91-1-3290%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e8%88%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40468\/","title":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u6c7a\u8b70\u524d\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u5347\u5411 1.3290\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u8207\u9df9\u6d3e\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u9650\u5236\u6f32\u5e45"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u9031\u56db\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u7d04 1.3290\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u65e9\u76e4\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8a72\u6c34\u6e96\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff08BoE\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\uff09\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u8b70\uff08\u592e\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u662f\u5426\u5347\u606f\u3001\u964d\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff09\u3002\n\n\n\u6cb9\u50f9\u56e0\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0cWTI\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u63a5\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u907f\u96aa\uff08\u8cc7\u91d1\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u5347\u9ad8\u6642\u8f49\u5411\u76f8\u5c0d\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u8cc7\u7522\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u652f\u6490\u3002\u5f6d\u535a\u5831\u5c0e\u7a31\uff0c\u5728\u4f0a\u6717\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u9769\u547d\u885b\u968a\uff08IRGC\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u8b66\u544a\u5c07\u9396\u5b9a\u80fd\u6e90\u8a2d\u65bd\u3001\u4e14\u5357\u5e15\u723e\u65af\uff08South Pars\uff09\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7530\u8a2d\u65bd\u906d\u653b\u64ca\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u8207\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u4e92\u76f8\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u8a2d\u65bd\u767c\u52d5\u6253\u64ca\u3002\n\n<h3>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9<\/h3>\n\u9031\u4e09\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.50%\u20133.75% \u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\uff08Summary of Economic Projections\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u4ecd\u986f\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff1b\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u56e0\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u524d\u666f\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5728 3 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5c07\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.75%\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\uff08Bank of America\uff09\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u4f30\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5728 6 \u6708\u8207 9 \u6708\u5404\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u8f03\u539f\u5148\u9810\u671f\u5ef6\u5f8c\u3002\n\n\u82f1\u570b\u52de\u52d5\u6578\u64da\u4e5f\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u9810\u4f30 1 \u6708 ILO \u5931\u696d\u7387\uff08\u4f9d\u570b\u969b\u52de\u5de5\u7d44\u7e54\u5b9a\u7fa9\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff09\u70ba 5.3%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc 12 \u6708\u7684 5.2%\u3002\u82f1\u938a\u53ef\u8ffd\u6eaf\u81f3\u897f\u5143 886 \u5e74\uff0c\u7d04\u5360\u5916\u532f\uff08FX\uff0c\u5916\u5e63\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 12%\uff1b\u4ee5 2022 \u5e74\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u65e5\u4ea4\u6613\u984d\u7d04 6,300 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u5360 11%\u3001\u82f1\u938a\/\u65e5\u5713\u5360 3%\u3001\u6b50\u5143\/\u82f1\u938a\u5360 2%\u3002\n\n\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u63a8\u5347\u6cb9\u50f9\u903c\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u770b\u5230\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u7531\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cCboe \u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08VIX\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5df2\u8df3\u5347\u5230 20 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8f03\u5e74\u521d\u8f03\u5e73\u7a69\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\u660e\u986f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cb7\u9032\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u672a\u4f86\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u52d2\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8f03\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u4e0d\u62bc\u6ce8\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u5143\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u8207\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u7dca\u7684\u5229\u7387\u7acb\u5834\u3002\u9451\u65bc 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u9054 3.4%\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u504f\u9df9\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u66f4\u6709\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f37\u5316\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8b93\u90e8\u4f4d\u504f\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\uff08basket\uff0c\u4e00\u7d44\u591a\u7a2e\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff09\u5176\u4ed6\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u8d70\u5f37\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u91dd\u5c0d\u82f1\u938a\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u524d\u666f\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u986f\u843d\u5dee\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5929\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d 6 \u6708\u958b\u59cb\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u8207 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u9810\u4f30\u82f1\u570b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5347\u81f3 5.3%\u3001\u5275\u8fd1\u4e94\u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u82f1\u938a\u504f\u7a7a\uff08bearish\uff0c\u770b\u8dcc\uff09\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\n\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u504f\u9df9\u3001\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\uff08cautious\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u5148\u89c0\u671b\u3001\u8f03\u4e0d\u6025\u8457\u7dca\u7e2e\uff09\u7684\u843d\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4f7f\u7528\u53ef\u5f9e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7372\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u9032\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u718a\u5e02\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bear put spread\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u524d\u671f\u6210\u672c\uff09\u4f86\u63a7\u5236\u6210\u672c\u3002\u76ee\u524d 1.3290 \u9644\u8fd1\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u9019\u985e\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\n\n\u56de\u9867\u4f86\u770b\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u5229\u5dee\uff08interest rate differentials\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u570b\u5bb6\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u64f4\u5927\u5e36\u52d5\u532f\u7387\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4f7f\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry 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href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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