{"id":40446,"date":"2026-03-19T04:58:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40446\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T04:58:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:58:24","slug":"mufg-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%b8%ab%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e8%a1%9d%e7%aa%81%e8%88%87%e8%8d%b7%e5%a7%86%e8%8c%b2%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%bd%e5%b0%81%e9%8e%96%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e4%bd%bf-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40446\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG \u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u8207\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5c01\u9396\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f 2026 \u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u8d8a\u5357\u76fe\u532f\u7387\u5347\u7834 27,000"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u9577\u671f\u5316\uff0c\u4e14\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u822a\u9053\uff09\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5c01\u9396\uff0c2026 \u5e74 USD\/VND\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u8d8a\u5357\u76fe\u532f\u7387\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u7834 27,000\u3002\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u9810\u6e2c\u70ba\uff1a2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 26,300\u30012026 \u5e74 12 \u6708 26,600\u3002\n\nUSD\/VND \u5347\u7834 27,000 \u7684\u60c5\u5883\u5047\u8a2d\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u57fa\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u7d04\u70ba\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u5247\u5047\u8a2d 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u5f8c\u5c40\u52e2\u964d\u6eab\uff08de-escalation\uff0c\u6307\u885d\u7a81\u5f37\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u885d\u7a81\u524d\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\n\n<h3>Upside Scenario For Usd Vnd<\/h3>\n\u5728\u8f03\u5dee\u60c5\u5883\uff08downside 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ex-Japan\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u6307\u4e9e\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u4f46\u6392\u9664\u65e5\u672c\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4f4e\u65bc\u5370\u5ea6\u8207\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u77ed\u7f3a\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u900f\u904e\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u8f49\u5f31\u8207\u5168\u7403\u6210\u9577\u653e\u6162\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u8d8a\u5357\u3002\n\n\u76ee\u524d\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff0c\u6307\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u7a69\u5b88\u6bcf\u6876 105 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f7f\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u7684 USD\/VND \u4e5f\u627f\u53d7\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u672c\u9031\u5373\u671f\u532f\u7387\uff08spot rate\uff0c\u6307\u7576\u4e0b\u6210\u4ea4\u532f\u7387\uff09\u5df2\u7a81\u7834 26,500\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u539f\u5148\u9810\u671f\u672c\u6708\u5e95 26,300\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u70ba\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5ef6\u9577\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4f7f\u300c\u5f88\u5feb\u964d\u6eab\u300d\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\n\n\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u80fd\u5728 USD\/VND \u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5927\u6642\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08USD call options\uff0c\u6307\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u8d8a\u5357\u76fe\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08VND put options\uff0c\u6307\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u8d8a\u5357\u76fe\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\uff08strike price\uff0c\u6307\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u53ef\u653e\u5728 27,000 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4.8%\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u8d8a\u5357\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u540c\u985e\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u66f4\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\uff0c\u4f46\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u6703\u62d6\u7d2f\u532f\u7387\u3002\n\n\u9700\u8981\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u300c\u5c3e\u7aef\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff08tail risk\uff0c\u6307\u6a5f\u7387\u4f4e\u4f46\u885d\u64ca\u6975\u5927\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09\u662f\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5168\u9762\u5c01\u9396\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u5411\u6bcf\u6876 120 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u82e5\u5982\u6b64\uff0cUSD\/VND \u8d70\u5411 27,700 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