{"id":40437,"date":"2026-03-19T02:58:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T02:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40437\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T02:58:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T02:58:49","slug":"bny-%e7%9a%84%e4%bd%99%e5%82%91%e5%a4%ab%ef%bc%88geoff-yu%ef%bc%89%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%a8%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e7%af%84%e5%9c%8d%e5%85%a7%ef%bc%8c%e6%96%b0%e8%88%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40437\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY \u7684\u4f59\u5091\u592b\uff08Geoff Yu\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u4e9e\u592a\uff08EM 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AI\uff08\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff09\u7522\u696d\u3002\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7522\u696d\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\uff1b\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u88fd\u7a0b\u4ef0\u8cf4\u6c26\u6c23\uff08\u7528\u5728\u88fd\u9020\u8207\u51b7\u537b\u7b49\u7528\u9014\u7684\u60f0\u6027\u6c23\u9ad4\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6c26\u6c23\u4f9b\u7d66\u4e00\u65e6\u5403\u7dca\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u751f\u7522\u3002\n\n\u60e0\u8b7d\uff08Fitch\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u4fe1\u7528\u8a55\u7b49\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\u53bb\u5e74\u7d04 65% \u7684\u6c26\u6c23\u9032\u53e3\u4f86\u81ea\u5361\u9054\uff1b\u65e5\u672c\u5247\u5728\u9031\u4e00\u516c\u958b\u62ab\u9732\u5176\u5132\u5099\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u4e9e\u592a\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\uff08EM APAC\uff1b\u6307\u4e9e\u592a\u5730\u5340\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4ecd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6301\u6709\u6700\u7a69\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u800c\u5340\u5167\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6301\u6709\u5ea6\u4e5f\u6bd4\u5168\u7403\u540c\u985e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u7a69\u3002\n\n<h3>Apac Allocation Outlook<\/h3>\n\u4e9e\u592a\u914d\u7f6e\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0a\u8abf\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u9019\u6b21\u8abf\u6574\u524d\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u66dd\u96aa\u4e5f\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u57fa\u671f\u6548\u679c\uff08\u53bb\u5e74\u57fa\u6578\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u66f4\u9ad8\uff09\u8207\u984d\u5916\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u800c\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u6703\u7684\u6210\u9577\u76ee\u6a19\u672a\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3002\n\n\u77ed\u671f\u907f\u96aa\u6bd4\u7387\uff08hedge ratio\uff1b\u7528\u907f\u96aa\u5de5\u5177\u8986\u84cb\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u9810\u671f\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u570b\u969b\u6536\u652f\uff08balance of payments\uff1b\u4e00\u570b\u5c0d\u5916\u6536\u4ed8\u6b3e\u7684\u7e3d\u5e33\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5168\u7403\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08front-end yields\uff1b\u5982 2 \u5e74\u671f\u7b49\u77ed\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u5229\u7387\uff09\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u8cc7\u91d1\u5f9e\u50b3\u7d71\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f86\u6e90\u532f\u56de\uff08repatriation\uff1b\u628a\u6d77\u5916\u8cc7\u91d1\u532f\u56de\u672c\u570b\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e9e\u592a\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u80a1\u7968\u4ecd\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u6301\u6709\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0b\u4ecd\u5177\u97cc\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982 MSCI \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u4e9e\u6d32\u6307\u6578\uff08\u6db5\u84cb\u4e9e\u6d32\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff09\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u8a31\u591a\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u540c\u985e\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4ecd\u5728\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u6211\u5011\u7dad\u6301\u5c0d\u5340\u57df\u6210\u9577\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u66dd\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u7522\u696d\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\uff1b\u8a72\u7522\u696d\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u56e0\u6c26\u6c23\u800c\u51fa\u73fe\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7591\u616e\u3002\u70ba\u4fdd\u8b77\u50cf\u5357\u97d3\u3001\u53f0\u7063\u9019\u985e\u79d1\u6280\u6bd4\u91cd\u9ad8\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8cb7\u5165\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff1b\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u4f86\u5e03\u5c40\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7b49\u95dc\u9375\u6a19\u7684\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e0b\u6a94\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4f9b\u61c9\u518d\u5ea6\u4e2d\u65b7\u6642\u5f71\u97ff\u7522\u91cf\u8207\u7372\u5229\u3002\n\n<h3>Portfolio Hedging Approach<\/h3>\n\u6301\u7e8c\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7406\u7531\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u8fd1\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u52d5\u4f5c\u770b\u4f86\u5728\u652f\u6490\u9700\u6c42\u30022026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u4e2d\u570b PMI\uff08\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6578\uff1b\u9ad8\u65bc 50 \u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u666f\u6c23\u64f4\u5f35\uff09\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728 50 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u4e5f\u91cb\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u78bc\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u6301\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5f62\u6210\u4e9e\u592a\u5340\u57df\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u5167\u751f\u52d5\u80fd\uff08idiosyncratic driver\uff1b\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5168\u7403\u8da8\u52e2\u3001\u7531\u81ea\u8eab\u56e0\u7d20\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u52d5\u80fd\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4f46\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u9762\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff1b\u570b\u969b\u6cb9\u50f9\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u5728\u6bcf\u6876\u7d04 92 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e9e\u6d32\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u9032\u53e3\u570b\u7684\u570b\u969b\u6536\u652f\u9020\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6a94\u53ef\u80fd\u4fb5\u8755\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u4e26\u62d6\u7d2f\u5340\u57df\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002\n\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u6838\u5fc3\u591a\u982d\u90e8\u4f4d\uff08long positions\uff1b\u8cb7\u9032\u4e26\u671f\u5f85\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6301\u5009\uff09\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u91dd\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u505a\u907f\u96aa\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8cb7\u5165\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\uff08put spreads\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8207\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4e26\u9650\u5b9a\u4fdd\u8b77\u5340\u9593\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u5168\u7403\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b 2 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f7f\u9019\u4e9b\u7d44\u5408\u4fdd\u8b77\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u66f4\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a 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