{"id":40371,"date":"2026-03-18T11:01:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:01:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40371\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T11:01:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:01:08","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e6%b1%ba%e7%ad%96%e5%89%8d%ef%bc%8c%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%93%a1%e5%9c%a8%e6%99%ae%e9%81%8d%e7%96%b2%e5%bc%b1%e8%88%87%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40371\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5728\u666e\u904d\u75b2\u5f31\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u63a8\u4f4e\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff09\u9023\u8dcc\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\uff0c\u9031\u4e8c\u6536\u5728 99.57\uff0c\u7d04\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.1%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u516c\u5e03\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\u5148\u884c\u8abf\u6574\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f Fed \u5c07\u5728\u9031\u56db\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u6642\u9593\u51cc\u6668 2 \u9ede\u628a\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u7126\u9ede\u5728\u65bc\uff1a\u82e5\u6230\u4e8b\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u50f9\uff08\u901a\u81a8\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u62d6\u7d2f\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u6c7a\u7b56\u5b98\u54e1\u6703\u600e\u9ebc\u56de\u61c9\u3002\n\n<h3>Fed Statement Watch<\/h3>\nFed \u8072\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u5230\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u4e8b\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\uff08rate path\uff0c\u6307\u672a\u4f86\u5347\u606f\u6216\u964d\u606f\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u8207\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u4e0a\u63a1\u7528\u66f4\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u3002\u8072\u660e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\u6709\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u6709\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8f49\u5f31\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\u300d\uff08Summary of Economic Projections\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 SEP\uff0cFed \u5c0d\u6210\u9577\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u8207\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u4eca\u5e74\u7684 PCE \u901a\u81a8\u9810\u6e2c\u6703\u660e\u986f\u4e0a\u4fee\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\uff08activity\uff0c\u6307\u6574\u9ad4\u6210\u9577\u8207\u9700\u6c42\u8868\u73fe\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u4fee\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u9810\u671f\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u9810\u6e2c\u6703\u986f\u793a\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01%\uff0c25 bps = 0.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002\n\n\u56de\u9867 2025 \u5e74\u521d\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u5728 Fed \u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\u5df2\u5448\u73fe\u666e\u904d\u8d70\u5f31\u3002DXY \u9023\u8dcc\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u81f3 99.57\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u592e\u884c\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\u8abf\u6574\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u800c\u8f49\u8da8\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u5143\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\n\n\u7576\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f Fed \u6703\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u800c CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u7528\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5347\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u8d85\u904e 90%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u53ea\u9810\u671f\u7576\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97 Fed \u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6bd4\u300c\u662f\u5426\u8abf\u6574\u5229\u7387\u300d\u66f4\u95dc\u9375\u3002\n\n<h3>Volatility Hedging Strategies<\/h3>\n\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u63a8\u5347\u4e86\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u6307\u5f9e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\uff0cVIX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u6a19\u666e 500 \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff09\u8df3\u5347\u81f3 20 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8cb7\u4fdd\u8b77\u8f03\u5408\u9069\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165\u5ee3\u6cdb\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6578\uff08broad equity indices\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u591a\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5927\u76e4\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5982 SPX\uff08\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08puts\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7372\u5229\u6216\u7528\u4f86\u4fdd\u96aa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u65b0\u805e\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u7a81\u767c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u512a\u5148\u8003\u616e\u907f\u96aa\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\n\n\u9019\u5834\u885d\u7a81\u4e5f\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u300c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u300d\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4f86\u81ea\u539f\u6cb9\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u4e0a\u5e36\u4f86\u6a5f\u6703\uff1b\u7576\u6642 WTI \u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u5f9e\u6bcf\u6876 80 \u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u6f32\u903c\u8fd1 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u539f\u6cb9\u8207\u80fd\u6e90 ETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u50cf\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u6a23\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u660e\u986f\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u9019\u4ecd\u662f\u7528\u4f86\u56e0\u61c9\u4f9b\u7d66\u9762\u885d\u64ca\uff08supply-side shocks\uff0c\u56e0\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u6216\u6e1b\u5c11\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f48\u5c40\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\n\n\u8003\u91cf Fed \u540c\u6642\u8981\u58d3\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u53c8\u8981\u9867\u53ca\u5c31\u696d\u8f49\u5f31\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5340\u9593\u5167\u53cd\u8986\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\uff08currency pairs\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 EUR\/USD \u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u8ce3\u51fa\u52d2\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u50f9\u5916\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u50f9\u5916\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u8cfa\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u50f9\u683c\u4e0d\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u3002\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u8d81\u6ce2\u52d5\u504f\u9ad8\u6642\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u7b49\u5f85 Fed \u7d66\u51fa\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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