{"id":40369,"date":"2026-03-18T11:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40369\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T11:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:00:07","slug":"%e4%b8%b9%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%97%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%ac%e5%82%b5%e6%ae%96%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e8%b5%b0%e4%bd%8e%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%ef%bc%8c%e6%ad%90%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40369\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e39\u65af\u514b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\uff0f\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u5fa9 1.15\uff1b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ef\u80fd\u7b49\u5f85\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u60c5\u52e2\u66f4\u660e\u6717\u518d\u884c\u52d5"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD \u56de\u5347\u5230 1.15 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5eab\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08Treasury 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Reserve\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u89c0\u671b\u300d\uff08wait-and-see\uff1b\u5148\u770b\u6578\u64da\u8207\u5c40\u52e2\u518d\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u722d\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u9810\u671f\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a EUR\/USD \u7684\u65b9\u5411\u5224\u65b7\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u570b 2 \u6708\u751f\u7522\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08PPI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u5de5\u5ee0\u7aef\/\u6279\u767c\u7aef\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5c07\u5728\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u5340 2 \u6708\u6700\u7d42\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u4e5f\u6703\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff1b\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u6703\u78ba\u8a8d\u5148\u524d\u7684\u300c\u521d\u503c\u300d\uff08flash estimates\uff1b\u5148\u884c\u5feb\u901f\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff09\u3002\n\n\u56de\u9867 2025 \u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u56e0\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u885d\u7a81\u63a1\u53d6\u89c0\u671b\uff0c\u8b93 EUR\/USD \u7dad\u6301\u5728 1.15 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5728\u5916\u90e8\u885d\u64ca\u4e0b\u66ab\u505c\u52d5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u80cc\u666f\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u3002\n\n\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cEUR\/USD \u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u7d04\u5728 1.08 \u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u300c\u5229\u7387\u5206\u6b67\u300d\uff08interest rate divergence\uff1b\u7f8e\u6b50\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\uff09\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u504f\u5411\u652f\u6490\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u76ee\u524d\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u8f49\u5411\uff08pivot\uff1b\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u8f49\u70ba\u964d\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u900f\u904e CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5347\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u7d04\u6703\u964d\u606f 75 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01%\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u5e03\u5c40<\/h3>\n\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5c0d\u6bd4\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u76ee\u524d\u8b39\u614e\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u8b93\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\uff08options market\uff1b\u7528\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u8cb7\u8ce3\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u51fa\u73fe\u6a5f\u6703\u3002EUR\/USD \u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1b\u7531\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7d04\u5728 6.5%\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u504f\u5411\u9b06\u61c8\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u7528\u300c\u8cb7\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\uff08buying volatility\uff1b\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u8b8a\u5927\uff09\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff1b\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u8207\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u7b49\u5f85\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u767c\u51fa\u660e\u78ba\u8f49\u5411\u8a0a\u865f\u5f8c\u7684\u6025\u5287\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\n\n\u985e\u4f3c 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e5f\u6709\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7591\u616e\u8207\u885d\u7a81\u5f71\u97ff\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\uff08commodity prices\uff1b\u5982\u539f\u6cb9\u3001\u91d1\u5c6c\u3001\u8fb2\u7522\u54c1\uff09\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e0d\u6562\u592a\u5feb\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u5361\u5728 2.9%\u3002\u9019\u9ad8\u65bc\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684 HICP \u901a\u81a8\uff08HICP\uff1b\u6b50\u76df\u7528\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u5df2\u964d\u5230 2.4%\uff0c\u4f7f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u6709\u7a7a\u9593\u5148\u8003\u616e\u964d\u606f\uff08easing\uff1b\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002\n\n\u9019\u7a2e\u901a\u81a8\u5dee\u7570\u610f\u5473\u7f8e\u5143\u77ed\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5f37\u52e2\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u7528\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04\uff08forward contracts\uff1b\u96d9\u65b9\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u4ea4\u5272\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5b63\u7f8e\u6b50\u5229\u5dee\u6703\u64f4\u5927\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u7dca\u76ef\u6bcf\u4e00\u9805\u65b0\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b PPI\u3002\n\n\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u300c\u770b\u6578\u64da\u300d\uff08data-dependent\uff1b\u653f\u7b56\u4f9d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u8abf\u6574\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u901a\u81a8\u6216\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u504f\u96e2\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u660e\u986f\u300c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u300d\uff08repricing\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u8abf\u6574\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u65b0\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff09\u3002\u5f9e 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u770b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u9577\u6642\u9593\u4e0d\u52d5\u4f5c\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u505a\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff1b\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u532f\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u61c9\u7dad\u6301\u907f\u96aa\uff08hedged\uff1b\u7528\u90e8\u4f4d\u62b5\u6d88\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u7a81\u7834\u76ee\u524d\u5340\u9593\uff08trading range\uff1b\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\uff09\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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