{"id":40302,"date":"2026-03-17T20:58:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:58:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40302\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:58:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:58:56","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e5%9c%8b%e5%95%86%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e5%8d%a1%e6%96%af%e6%bb%95%c2%b7%e5%bc%97%e9%87%8c%e5%a5%87%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e4%be%9b%e6%87%89%e4%b8%ad%e6%96%b7%e3%80%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40302\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\u7684\u5361\u65af\u6ed5\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5947\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u3001\u5132\u5099\u8207\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u8b8a\u53ef\u80fd\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u63a8\u79fb\u91cd\u5851\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u9700\u5e73\u8861"},"content":{"rendered":"\u8207\u5c01\u9396\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\uff0c\u6b63\u88ab\u62ff\u4f86\u8207 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u6a5f\u76f8\u6bd4\u3002\u570b\u969b\u80fd\u6e90\u7e3d\u7f72\uff08IEA\uff0cInternational Energy Agency\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u7d71\u8a08\u8207\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u570b\u969b\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f3a\u53e3\u662f\u6709\u7d00\u9304\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u3002\n\nIEA \u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u51fa\u53e3\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u80fd\u628a\u6cb9\u904b\u51fa\u4e26\u8ce3\u5230\u570b\u969b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff09\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u6ce2\u65af\u7063\u5730\u5340\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u5df2\u88ab\u524a\u6e1b\u8d85\u904e\u6bcf\u65e5 800 \u842c\u6876\u3002\u5831\u544a\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u51dd\u6790\u6cb9\uff08condensates\uff0c\u5f9e\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u4e2d\u5206\u96e2\u51fa\u4f86\u3001\u50cf\u8f15\u8cea\u6cb9\u7684\u6db2\u614b\u70f4\uff09\u8207\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u6db2\uff08NGLs\uff0cnatural gas liquids\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e59\u70f7\u3001\u4e19\u70f7\u7b49\u53ef\u6db2\u5316\u7684\u6c23\u9ad4\u6210\u5206\uff09\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e5f\u5404\u6e1b\u5c11\u6bcf\u65e5 200 \u842c\u6876\u3002\n\n<h3>Supply Shock Compared With 1970s<\/h3>\n\u5340\u57df\u6027\u505c\u7522\u898f\u6a21\u7d04\u70ba\u6bcf\u65e5 700\u20131,000 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u6700\u591a 10%\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u662f\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\u3002\n\n\u7d93\u6fdf\u5408\u4f5c\u66a8\u767c\u5c55\u7d44\u7e54\uff08OECD\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u570b\u969b\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u570b\u5bb6\u76ee\u524d\u6301\u6709\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u63a7\u7ba1\u7684\u7dca\u6025\u5132\u5099\uff08\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6230\u7565\u6027\u5eab\u5b58\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f9b\u61c9\u8def\u7dda\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5132\u5099\u53ef\u652f\u6490\u4e2d\u6771\u539f\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f3a\u53e3\u7d04\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u3002\n\n\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u5be6\u9ad4\u7f3a\u6cb9\u300d\uff08\u771f\u6b63\u62ff\u4e0d\u5230\u6cb9\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u9577\u671f\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u5c0d\u5f8c\u7e8c\u4f9b\u7d66\u8207\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u5411\u7f3a\u4e4f\u628a\u63e1\uff09\u6703\u8b93\u6cb9\u50f9\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u6a94\u3002\n\n<h3>Trading Implications For Oil Markets<\/h3>\n\u7531\u65bc\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5c01\u9396\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u591a 10% \u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u76ee\u524d\u505c\u64fa\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f3a\u53e3\u898f\u6a21\u8207 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u6cb9\u50f9\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u5df2\u885d\u7834\u6bcf\u6876 115 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u58d3\u529b\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u60f3\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u652f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u5f8c\u53d6\u5f97\u300c\u672a\u4f86\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u9032\u300d\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6216\u8fd1\u671f\u6708\u4efd\u671f\u8ca8\uff08front-month futures\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u591a\u982d\u90e8\u4f4d\uff08long positions\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6301\u5009\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u7dca\u5f35\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u6cb9\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08OVX\uff0cOil Volatility Index\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6cb9\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u5230 60 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u793a\u300c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u6f32\u8dcc\u3001\u53ea\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c31\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u300d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6ce2\u52d5\u578b\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7d44\u5408\uff08\u5229\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u8b93\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6d88\u606f\u5e36\u4f86\u6025\u5287\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7d50\u69cb\u3002\n\n\u96d6\u7136 OECD \u570b\u5bb6\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7dca\u6025\u5132\u5099\u53ef\u652f\u6490\u7d04\u4e09\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u9577\u4e45\u4e4b\u8a08\u3002IEA \u4e0a\u9031\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6230\u7565\u5132\u5099\uff08strategic reserves\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u5c64\u7d1a\u7684\u5099\u7528\u5eab\u5b58\uff09\u5df2\u6e1b\u5c11 1,800 \u842c\u6876\uff1b\u82e5\u5371\u6a5f\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6d88\u8017\u901f\u5ea6\u6703\u524a\u5f31\u5e02\u5834\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5132\u5099\u6d88\u8017\u8d8a\u5feb\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6ea2\u50f9\u300d\uff08fear premium\uff0c\u56e0\u64d4\u5fc3\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u800c\u984d\u5916\u63a8\u9ad8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u9019\u7a2e\u6182\u616e\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u66f2\u7dda\u5df2\u8f49\u70ba\u660e\u986f\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\uff08backwardation\uff0c\u8fd1\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u6bd4\u9060\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u66f4\u8cb4\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u77ed\u671f\u5f88\u7f3a\u8ca8\uff09\u3002\u4f8b\u5982 2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u5408\u7d04\u6bd4 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u5408\u7d04\u9ad8 6 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u7d50\u69cb\u8868\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6025\u8457\u8cb7\u5230\u300c\u7acb\u523b\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u300d\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u4f9b\u8de8\u671f\u50f9\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff08calendar spread\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u6708\u4efd\u5408\u7d04\u3001\u8cfa\u53d6\u50f9\u5dee\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff09\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5c01\u9396\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u50f9\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u6703\u64f4\u5927\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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