{"id":40199,"date":"2026-03-16T22:01:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40199\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T22:01:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:01:49","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e7%9a%84%e8%90%8a%e6%81%a9%e3%83%bb%e9%ba%a5%e5%87%b1%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%b4%85%e6%b5%b7%e5%92%bd%e5%96%89%e8%a6%81%e9%81%93%e6%94%b9%e8%ae%8a%e6%b2%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40199\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u840a\u6069\u30fb\u9ea5\u51f1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d05\u6d77\u54bd\u5589\u8981\u9053\u6539\u8b8a\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u51fa\u53e3\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u8da8\u7dca"},"content":{"rendered":"\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u8207\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Bab El-Mandeb\uff0c\u7d05\u6d77\u901a\u5f80\u4e9e\u4e01\u7063\u7684\u72f9\u7a84\u822a\u9053\uff09\u5468\u908a\u7684\u4e2d\u65b7\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u8b8a\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u539f\u6cb9\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ca8\u7269\u6539\u9053\uff08reroute\uff0c\u628a\u904b\u6cb9\u8def\u7dda\u6539\u8d70\u5176\u4ed6\u901a\u9053\uff09\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\u7d04 1,600\u20131,700 \u842c\u6876\uff08m b\/d\uff0cmillion barrels per day\uff0c\u6bcf\u65e5\u767e\u842c\u6876\uff09\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u7d93\u7531\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u904b\u8f38\u5df2\u88ab\u8feb\u505c\u6b62\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d04\u6bcf\u5929 700 \u842c\u6876\u53ef\u7e5e\u904e\u8a72\u6d77\u5cfd\u3002\n\n\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u5728\u6771\u897f\u7ba1\u7dda\uff08East-West pipeline\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u6771\u90e8\u6cb9\u7530\u5230\u897f\u5cb8\u7d05\u6d77\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u9678\u4e0a\u8f38\u6cb9\u7ba1\uff09\u76f8\u8f03\u6230\u524d\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u7d04\u6709\u6bcf\u5929 500\u2013550 \u842c\u6876\u7684\u984d\u5916\u53ef\u7528\u7e5e\u9053\u904b\u80fd\uff0c\u53ef\u8b93\u539f\u6cb9\u5f9e\u7d05\u6d77\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u6771\u897f\u7ba1\u7dda\u770b\u4f86\u5df2\u6eff\u8f09\u904b\u8f49\uff1b\u5ef6\u5e03\uff08Yanbu\uff0c\u7d05\u6d77\u6e2f\u53e3\uff09\u672c\u9031\u6392\u7a0b\u986f\u793a\u539f\u6cb9\u88dd\u8239\u51fa\u53e3\u7d04 1,300 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\uff0c\u4e0b\u9031\u8d85\u904e 500 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5ef6\u5e03\u51fa\u53e3\u66b4\u9732\u65bc\u7d05\u6d77\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n\u4f9d\u6392\u7a0b\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u82e5\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\uff08Houthi\uff0c\u8449\u9580\u7684\u6b66\u88dd\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u6d3b\u52d5\u5f71\u97ff\u7d05\u6d77\uff0c\u5ef6\u5e03\u7d04 70\u201375% \u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5e72\u64fe\u3002\u5ef6\u5e03\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\uff0c90% \u8a08\u756b\u7531 VLCC \u88dd\u8f09\uff08VLCC\uff0cVery Large Crude Carrier\uff0c\u8d85\u5927\u578b\u539f\u6cb9\u8f2a\uff09\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11 80% \u9810\u8a08\u904b\u5f80\u4e9e\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u7684\u8cc8\u8d0a\u7149\u6cb9\u5ee0\uff08Jazan refinery\uff0c\u6c99\u570b\u897f\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u5927\u578b\u7149\u6cb9\u8a2d\u65bd\uff09\u3002\n\n\u6eff\u8f09\u7684 VLCC \u7121\u6cd5\u901a\u884c\u8607\u4f0a\u58eb\u904b\u6cb3\uff08Suez Canal\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u8207\u7d05\u6d77\u7684\u904b\u6cb3\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8a31\u591a\u8ca8\u8f09\u5fc5\u9808\u7a7f\u8d8a\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\u3002\u6392\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684 VLCC \u6d41\u91cf\u6bcf\u5929\u6700\u9ad8\u7d04 200\u2013250 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8d70\u5317\u4e0a\u5230\u827e\u56e0\u8607\u8d6b\u7d0d\uff08Ain Sukhna\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\u7d05\u6d77\u5cb8\u7684\u6e2f\u5340\uff09\uff0c\u518d\u63a5 SUMED \u7ba1\u7dda\uff08\u57c3\u53ca\u7684\u8f38\u6cb9\u7ba1\uff0c\u628a\u7d05\u6d77\u5074\u8f38\u5230\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u5074\uff09\u5230\u897f\u8fea\u514b\u91cc\u723e\uff08Sidi Kerir\uff0c\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u51fa\u53e3\u6e2f\uff09\uff1b\u6b64\u8def\u7dda\u540d\u76ee\u904b\u80fd\u7d04 250\u2013280 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\u4e0a\u9650\u7d04\u7565\u53ea\u770b\u5f97\u5230 200 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\u3002\n\n\u5728\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u4e2d\u65b7\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9762\u81e8\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\uff08supply shock\uff0c\u4f9b\u7d66\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u9020\u6210\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u4f9b\u9700\u5287\u70c8\u8b8a\u52d5\uff09\uff0c\u6539\u9053\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u6c7a\u3002\u6c99\u570b\u6771\u897f\u7ba1\u7dda\u901a\u5f80\u7d05\u6d77\u5df2\u5728\u6975\u9650\u904b\u4f5c\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u504f\u591a\uff08bullish\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u770b\u6f32\uff09\u7684\u7406\u7531\u660e\u78ba\u3002\u9019\u5df2\u4e0d\u662f 2024 \u8207 2025 \u5e74\u90a3\u7a2e\u300c\u5ef6\u8aa4\u300d\u7b49\u7d1a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5347\u7d1a\u3002\n\n\u6539\u9053\u5f8c\u539f\u6cb9\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u975e\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u73fe\u5728\u5fc5\u9808\u901a\u904e\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\u3002\u4e0a\u6708\u8a72\u6c34\u9053\u50b3\u51fa\u4e00\u8258 VLCC \u906d\u98db\u5f48\u300c\u5dee\u9ede\u64ca\u4e2d\u300d\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u5b9a\u50f9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u4e00\u5ea6\u8df3\u5347\u5230\u6bcf\u6876 115 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002CBOE \u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578 OVX\uff08OVX\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u539f\u6cb9\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u3001\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u5728\u7d04 55 \u7684\u9ad8\u6a94\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u5fc3\u6cb9\u8f2a\u88ab\u76f4\u63a5\u64ca\u4e2d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\n\n<h3>\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n\u9019\u4e9b\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u5ef6\u5e03\u6d41\u91cf\u6700\u9ad8\u9054 75%\uff09\u7531\u7121\u6cd5\u901a\u884c\u8607\u4f0a\u58eb\u904b\u6cb3\u7684 VLCC \u88dd\u8f09\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u8239\u96bb\u5357\u4e0b\u7a7f\u8d8a\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u5340\u624d\u80fd\u5230\u4e9e\u6d32\u3002\u6539\u8d70\u57c3\u53ca SUMED \u7ba1\u7dda\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u8def\u5f91\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u5403\u7dca\uff0c\u6700\u591a\u50c5\u80fd\u8655\u7406\u7d04\u6bcf\u65e5 250 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u986f\u74f6\u9838\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u9032\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u8fd1\u6708\u671f\u8ca8\uff08front-month\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5230\u671f\u6708\u4efd\uff09\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1b\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u4f86\u5403\u5230\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u9650\u5236\u5728\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u8207 WTI\uff08WTI\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u5b9a\u50f9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u50f9\u5dee\u5df2\u64f4\u5927\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1 9 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u70ba 2024 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e2d\u6771\u539f\u6cb9\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\uff1b\u6b64\u50f9\u5dee\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u64f4\u5927\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u7d50\u69cb\uff08market structure\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u8ca8\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6392\u5217\uff09\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u6b64\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u671f\u8ca8\u66f2\u7dda\u5448\u73fe\u9661\u5ced\u7684\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\uff08backwardation\uff0c\u8fd1\u6708\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9060\u6708\uff0c\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u77ed\u671f\u4f9b\u61c9\u7dca\u7f3a\uff09\u3002\u8fd1\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u6ea2\u50f9\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6301\u6709 2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u6216 6 \u6708\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u591a\u55ae\uff08long positions\uff0c\u770b\u6f32\u6301\u5009\uff09\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u7dca\u7f3a\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u4eba\u60f3\u5230 2019 \u5e74\u6c99\u570b\u8a2d\u65bd\u9047\u8972\u5f8c\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6b21\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u8207\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\u52d5\u76ea\u8feb\u4f7f\u6c99\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u6539\u9053\uff1a\u6771\u897f\u7ba1\u7dda\u6eff\u8f09\u3001\u5ef6\u5e03\u4e03\u6210\u51fa\u53e3\u66dd\u96aa\uff0cSUMED\u6210\u74f6\u9838\u3002VLCC\u96e3\u907f\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u822a\u9053\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\u63a8\u5347\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u3001\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u50f9\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40199\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}