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\n\n\u7531\u65bc\u7f8e\u4f0a\u6230\u722d\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u300c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u300d\uff08\u6307\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5feb\u901f\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3001\u63db\u6210\u73fe\u91d1\uff09\u8207\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u300d\uff08\u6307\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6642\u8f03\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u516d\u7a2e\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u652f\u6490<\/h3>  \n\u8207\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\u63a8\u5347\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u52a0\u91cd\u300c\u901a\u81a8\u300d\uff08\u6307\u7269\u50f9\u666e\u904d\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea4\u6613\u591a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8a08\u50f9\uff08\u6307\u7528\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u5831\u50f9\u8207\u7d50\u7b97\u8ca8\u5e63\uff09\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002  \n\n\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4e26\u652f\u6490\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6839\u64da\u5f6d\u535a\uff08Bloomberg\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u4f30\u5230 12 \u6708\u5927\u7d04\u53ea\u6703\u964d\u606f 20 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0cbp\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u885d\u7a81\u524d\u539f\u5148\u9810\u671f\u7684\u8d85\u904e 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002  \n\n\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u4e0b\u9031\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u300d\uff08dot plot\uff1a\u986f\u793a\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u5716\uff09\u8207\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\u300d\uff08Summary of Economic Projections\uff1a\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u6210\u9577\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u3001\u5931\u696d\u8207\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u4ecd\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u9577\u671f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u8cbf\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u7591\u616e\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u8ca1\u653f\u524d\u666f\u3002  \n\n\u9451\u65bc\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u80fd\u5728\u300c\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\uff08\u6307\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\uff09\u4e2d\u7372\u5229\u7684\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\u300d\uff08options strategies\uff1a\u7528\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6b0a\u5229\u5408\u7d04\u4f86\u5e03\u5c40\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5c07\u5ef6\u7e8c\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08CBOE Volatility Index\uff0cVIX\uff1b\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u80a1\u5e02\u6050\u614c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5728 28 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1 2022 \u5e74\u521d\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u7206\u767c\u6642\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u58d3\u529b\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u9019\u8868\u793a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5728 EUR\/USD \u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u300c\u52d2\u5f0f\u300d\uff08strangle\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u4e0d\u8ad6\u65b9\u5411\u3001\u53ea\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u76f4\u63a5\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u90e8\u4f4d<\/h3>  \n\u76f4\u63a5\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\u4ecd\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba DXY \u7a69\u5b88 100.00 \u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u5011\u95dc\u6ce8\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u50f9\u5916\u300d\uff08out-of-the-money\uff1a\u76ee\u524d\u4e0d\u6703\u7acb\u523b\u7372\u5229\u7684\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\uff09\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165 EUR\/USD \u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u671f\u9650\u843d\u5728\u672a\u4f86 30 \u5230 60 \u5929\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8ca8\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08CFTC\uff1b\u76e3\u7ba1\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7684\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u8cc7\u6599\u4e5f\u5370\u8b49\u9019\u500b\u8da8\u52e2\uff1a\u975e\u5546\u696d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08\u591a\u6307\u6295\u6a5f\u8cc7\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u300c\u6de8\u591a\u55ae\u300d\uff08net long\uff1a\u591a\u55ae\u6578\u91cf\u6263\u6389\u7a7a\u55ae\u5f8c\u7684\u6de8\u90e8\u4f4d\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f3 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002  \n\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u4f7f\u300c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u300d\uff08interest rate futures\uff1a\u7528\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u51fa\u73fe\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u622a\u81f3\u672c\u9031\uff0c\u829d\u5546\u6240\uff08CME\uff09FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u4f30\u5347\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u986f\u793a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u524d\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u4f4e\u65bc 10%\uff0c\u8207\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\uff08\u885d\u7a81\u5347\u6eab\u524d\uff09\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u8a08\u7d04 75% \u7684\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u986f\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u653e\u7a7a 9 \u6708 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u4ee5\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387 SOFR \u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u7dca\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u3002  \n\n\u4e2d\u6771\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u963b\u4f7f\u300c\u80fd\u6e90\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u300d\uff08energy derivatives\uff1a\u4ee5\u539f\u6cb9\u7b49\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b49\uff09\u6210\u70ba\u7126\u9ede\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Brent crude futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff095 \u6708\u4ea4\u5272\u5408\u7d04\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 115 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165 USO \u7b49\u77f3\u6cb9 ETF \u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08oil ETF call options\uff1a\u5c0d\u8ffd\u8e64\u6cb9\u50f9\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u8cb7\u9032\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u7e8c\u6f32\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5168\u9762\u5c01\u9396\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u3002  \n\n\u5118\u7ba1\u7f8e\u5143\u76ee\u524d\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u5c0d\u6297\u5148\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u9006\u98a8\u3002\u300c\u8cb6\u503c\u6558\u4e8b\u300d\uff08debasement narrative\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u5fc3\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u60e1\u5316\u3001\u5370\u9214\u6216\u50b5\u52d9\u64f4\u5f35\u5c0e\u81f4\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u964d\u6eab\u6642\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u9577\u5929\u671f\u300d\uff08long-dated\uff1a\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u8f03\u9060\uff09\u9ec3\u91d1\u8cb7\u6b0a\u4f5c\u70ba\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8f49\u5f31\u6642\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u8d70\u5f37\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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