{"id":39678,"date":"2026-03-10T12:01:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T12:01:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39678\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T12:01:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T12:01:37","slug":"carsten-brzeski-%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c1-%e6%9c%88%e5%87%ba%e5%8f%a3%e8%88%87%e9%80%b2%e5%8f%a3%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e5%b9%85%e4%b8%8b%e6%bb%91%e5%89%8a%e5%bc%b1%e4%ba%86%e5%b0%8d%e5%be%b7%e5%9c%8b-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/39678\/","title":{"rendered":"Carsten Brzeski \u8868\u793a\uff0c1 \u6708\u51fa\u53e3\u8207\u9032\u53e3\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u5c0d\u5fb7\u570b 2026 \u5e74\u5fa9\u7526\u524d\u666f\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u60c5\u7dd2"},"content":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b 1 \u6708\u51fa\u53e3\u8f03\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u6ed1 2.3%\uff0c\u5148\u524d 12 \u6708\u66fe\u4e0a\u5347 4.0%\u3002\u9032\u53e3\u8f03\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u6ed1 5.9%\uff0c\u4f7f\u8cbf\u6613\u9806\u5dee\u5347\u81f3 212 \u5104\u6b50\u5143\uff0c\u70ba 2024 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002  \n\n1 \u6708\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u958b\u5c40\u75b2\u5f31\u3002\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u3001\u5efa\u7bc9\u8207\u8cbf\u6613\u5728 1 \u6708\u90fd\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u51fa\u53e3\u9006\u98a8\u52a0\u5287<\/h3>  \n\u7531\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\uff08\u5c0d\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u7684\u7a05\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u9ad8\u6cd5\u9662\u88c1\u6c7a\uff08\u6700\u9ad8\u53f8\u6cd5\u6a5f\u95dc\u7684\u5224\u6c7a\uff09\u5f8c\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u74b0\u5883\u4ecd\u7136\u8271\u96e3\u3002\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u58d3\u529b\u4f86\u81ea\u4e2d\u570b\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\u3001\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u6b50\u76df\u5167\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7a00\u571f\uff08\u88fd\u9020\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u8ecd\u5de5\u7b49\u7522\u54c1\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4e00\u7d44\u95dc\u9375\u91d1\u5c6c\u539f\u6599\uff09\u4f9d\u8cf4\u3002  \n\n\u8003\u91cf\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 DAX \u6307\u6578\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8ce3\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08Put options\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7372\u5229\u6216\u4f5c\u70ba\u4fdd\u96aa\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u9078\u5728 4 \u6708\u8207 5 \u6708\uff0c\u4ee5\u5c0d\u6c96\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff08Hedge\uff0c\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u7b46\u4ea4\u6613\u964d\u4f4e\u640d\u5931\uff09\u30022 \u6708\u6700\u65b0 Ifo \u4f01\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\uff08\u5fb7\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8abf\u67e5\uff09\u5df2\u964d\u81f3 85.2\uff0c\u800c 2 \u6708\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u5de5\u5ee0\u8a02\u55ae\uff08\u4f01\u696d\u6536\u5230\u7684\u65b0\u8a02\u55ae\uff09\u4e5f\u4e0b\u6ed1 1.5%\uff0c\u770b\u7a7a\uff08Bearish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff09\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u63d0\u4f9b\u660e\u78ba\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u640d\u5931\u4e0a\u9650\u6e05\u695a\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u628a\u63e1\u66f4\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5f31\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u70ba\u8f49\u5411\u907f\u96aa\u800c\u5e03\u5c40<\/h3>  \n\u5fb7\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f15\u64ce\u7684\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u62d6\u7d2f\u6b50\u5143\u3002\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u9df9\uff08Hawkish\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dca\u7e2e\u3001\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4f7f\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6211\u5011\u770b\u597d\u653e\u7a7a\uff08Shorting\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09EUR\/USD \u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff08Futures contracts\uff0c\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u8a72\u532f\u7387\u5c0d\u53ef\u80fd\u56de\u6e2c\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u4f4e\u9ede\u3002  \n\n\u9019\u985e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5e38\u5f15\u767c\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u907f\u96aa\uff08Flight to safety\uff0c\u628a\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u5fb7\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u516c\u50b5\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728 2011 \u5e74\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u98a8\u96aa\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u671f\u9593\u898b\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u64a4\u96e2\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u6642\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08Yields\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff09\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u8cb7\u5165 10 \u5e74\u671f\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7684\u7a69\u5065\u5c0d\u6c96\u5de5\u5177\u3002  \n\n\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u8207\u4f86\u81ea\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u77ed\u671f\u96e3\u4ee5\u5316\u89e3\uff0c\u4ecd\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7a00\u571f\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5176\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u5728\u6211\u5011\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u554f\u984c\uff08\u9577\u671f\u4e14\u4e0d\u6613\u8fc5\u901f\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff09\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u652f\u6301\u7dad\u6301\u5be9\u614e\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u4fdd\u6301\u9632\u79a6\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\uff09\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5fb7\u570b1\u6708\u9032\u51fa\u53e3\u9f4a\u8dcc\u3001\u9806\u5dee\u5275\u590f\u5b63\u65b0\u9ad8\u537b\u96e3\u63a9\u958b\u5c40\u75b2\u5f31\uff01\u95dc\u7a05\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u9700\u6c42\u62d6\u7d2f\u51fa\u53e3\uff0cIfo\u8207\u8a02\u55ae\u8f49\u5f31\uff1b\u5efa\u8b70\u4ee5DAX\u8ce3\u6b0a\u3001\u653e\u7a7a\u6b50\u5143\u3001\u8cb7\u5fb7\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u907f\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}