{"id":39668,"date":"2026-03-10T09:04:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T09:04:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39668\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T09:04:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T09:04:44","slug":"john-velis-%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e3%80%81%e5%89%8a%e5%bc%b1%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%b5%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/39668\/","title":{"rendered":"John Velis 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3.1%\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u4e0b\u4fee\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed funds futures\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u5230 12 \u6708\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u53ea\u6709 40%\u3002\n\n<h3>\u4ea4\u6613\u907f\u96aa\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5<\/h3>\n\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u91cd\u9ede\u5728\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u8feb\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\uff08nonfarm payrolls\uff0c\u4e0d\u542b\u8fb2\u696d\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\uff09\u53ea\u589e\u52a0 15 \u842c\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff1b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0a\u5347\u5230 4.1%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u4eca\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8207\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivatives traders\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b49\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08interest rate futures\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u3002SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options on SOFR futures\uff1bSOFR \u662f\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f5c\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff1b\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u662f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u53d6\u5f97\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u6703\u7372\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8207\u6211\u5011\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u82e5\u5e03\u5c40\u300c\u9060\u671f\u66f2\u7dda\u300d\uff08forward curve\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u5229\u7387\/\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5e45\u5ea6\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u60f3\u50cf\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\n\n\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u8457\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578 VIX\uff08Cboe Volatility Index\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u66fe\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1 12 \u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5247\u9010\u6b65\u588a\u9ad8\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u9032 VIX \u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08calls\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u8cb7\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08call spreads\uff0c\u7528\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8207\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\u4f86\u63a7\u6210\u672c\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u56e0\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6216\u75b2\u5f31\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u6025\u8dcc\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u504f\u9ad8\u5e36\u4f86\u96d9\u5411\u98a8\u96aa\uff1a\u82e5\u5c40\u52e2\u7a81\u7136\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u8dcc\uff1b\u82e5\u885d\u7a81\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u5927\u6f32\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u539f\u6cb9 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