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2.4%\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u6578\u64da\u3002EIA\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u80fd\u6e90\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7f72\uff09\u539f\u6cb9\u5eab\u5b58\u4e5f\u5c07\u65bc\u9031\u4e09\u516c\u5e03\uff1b\u524d\u6b21\u5831\u544a\u5eab\u5b58\u589e\u52a0 350 \u842c\u6876\u3002\n\nWTI \u4ea4\u6613\u5728\u7d04 $93.15 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u652f\u6490\uff08\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u6b62\u8dcc\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff09\u5728 $88.50 \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u963b\u529b\uff08\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u58d3\u56de\u843d\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff09\u5728 $95.00 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f $98.00 \u8207 $100.00\u300250 \u65e5 EMA\uff08\u6307\u6578\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff0c\u7528\u8f03\u91cd\u6b0a\u91cd\u8a08\u7b97\u8fd1\u671f\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\uff09\u7d04\u70ba $66.35\uff0c200 \u65e5 EMA \u7d04\u5728 $63.55\u3002\n\n\u55ae\u65e5\u81ea $113 \u4e0a\u65b9\u6025\u8dcc\u5230 $93\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7279\u5fb5\u662f\u300c\u6975\u7aef\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u3002\u539f\u6cb9\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u8cb7\u65b9\u7528\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u5728\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\/\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5f9e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347\uff1bOVX\uff08CBOE \u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u539f\u6cb9\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5728 70 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5275 2022 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capacity\uff0c\u53ef\u5feb\u901f\u52a0\u7522\u7684\u591a\u9918\u7522\u91cf\uff09\u4f4e\u65bc\u6bcf\u65e5 200 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4e2d\u65b7\u3002\u9019\u662f\u300c\u6b63\u5728\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f3a\u53e3\u300d\uff0c\u652f\u6490\u6cb9\u50f9\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f80\u4e0a\u8d70\u3002\n\n\u7531\u65bc\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6210\u672c\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u725b\u5e02\u8cb7\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff1a\u8cb7\u9032\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u4e5f\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7372\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u7e8c\u6f32\u7684\u540c\u6642\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u6210\u672c\u63a7\u5236\u4f4f\u3002\u82e5\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u6e2c\u5230\u7d04 $88.50 \u7684\u6280\u8853\u652f\u6490\u5340\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u9032\u5834\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u88f8\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08naked put\uff1a\u53ea\u8ce3\u51fa\u8ce3\u6b0a\u3001\u6c92\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u4f4d\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u5de8\u5927\u8667\u640d\uff09\u98a8\u96aa\u6975\u9ad8\uff0c\u61c9\u907f\u514d\u3002\n\n2022 \u5e74\u4fc4\u70cf\u885d\u7a81\u5f8c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\uff0cWTI \u4e5f\u66fe\u77ed\u66ab\u7ad9\u4e0a $100\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u6b21\u5c01\u9396\u7684\u662f\u5168\u7403\u95dc\u9375\u822a\u9053\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u3001\u5be6\u9ad4\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5236\u88c1\uff08\u4ee5\u653f\u7b56\u9650\u5236\u4ea4\u6613\uff09\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u50cf 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u90a3\u7a2e\u300c\u4f9b\u61c9\u88ab\u76f4\u63a5\u79fb\u9664\u300d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7684\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u3002\n\n\u9031\u4e09\u7684\u7f8e\u570b CPI \u662f\u91cd\u8981\u98a8\u96aa\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1b\u8fd1\u671f\u80fd\u6e90\u5927\u6f32\u6703\u660e\u986f\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\u3002\u514b\u91cc\u592b\u862d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u5373\u6642\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff08Inflation Nowcasting\uff0c\u7528\u5373\u6642\u8cc7\u6599\u4f30\u7b97\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u5df2\u9810\u4f30 2 \u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u6578\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u8df3\u5347\u5230 3.0% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u8f49\u5411\u66f4\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\/\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u58d3\u6291\u9700\u6c42\uff08\u9700\u6c42\u88ab\u7834\u58de\uff0cdemand destruction\uff1a\u56e0\u50f9\u683c\u6216\u5229\u7387\u592a\u9ad8\u800c\u4f7f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6e1b\u5c11\uff09\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u570b\u6d77\u8ecd\u8b77\u822a\u8a08\u756b\u5e36\u4f86\u300c\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\u300d\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff1a\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5fc5\u9808\u5bc6\u5207\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u82e5\u884c\u52d5\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u77ed\u66ab\u7de9\u89e3\u6050\u614c\u4e26\u5f15\u767c\u6cb9\u50f9\u6025\u8dcc\uff1b\u82e5\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u90e8\u968a\u767c\u751f\u8ecd\u4e8b\u63a5\u89f8\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u53ef\u80fd\u98c6\u7834\u8fd1\u671f $113 \u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5de8\u5927\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u9577\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u52d2\u5f0f\uff08long 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