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\u552f\u4e00\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u985e\u80a1\uff1b\u9053\u5316\u516c\u53f8\uff08Dow Inc\uff09\u4e0a\u6f32\u903e 4%\uff0c\u96ea\u4f5b\u9f8d\uff08Chevron\uff09\u662f\u9053\u74ca\u5c11\u6578\u4e0a\u6f32\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6cb9\u50f9 3 \u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u903e 50%\uff0c\u662f 2020 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u55ae\u6708\u6f32\u5e45\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u5e02\u5834\u7b56\u7565\u8207\u907f\u96aa\u505a\u6cd5<\/h3>  \n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u986f\u793a\uff1a3\/17\u20133\/18 \u6703\u8b70\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387 97%\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5340\u9593 3.50%\u20133.75%\uff1b\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387 3%\uff0c\u8f03 2 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u7d04 23% \u660e\u986f\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u6cb9\u50f9\u6bcf\u4e0a\u6f32 20 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u589e\u52a0 0.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3001\u8b93 GDP\uff08\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u6e1b\u5c11 0.1%\uff1b\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08yields\uff0c\u6307\u300c\u6301\u6709\u50b5\u5238\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\u300d\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c2 \u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff08NFP\uff0c\u975e\u8fb2\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u770b\u5c31\u696d\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u5c11\u4e86 9.2 \u842c\u4eba\u3002  \n\n\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff1a2 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u7269\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\uff09\u9810\u4f30\u6708\u589e 0.3%\uff08\u524d\u503c 0.2%\uff09\u3001\u5e74\u589e 2.4%\uff1b\u6838\u5fc3 CPI\uff08\u6263\u9664\u98df\u7269\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u6708\u589e 0.2%\uff08\u524d\u503c 0.3%\uff09\u3001\u5e74\u589e 2.5%\u3002\u9031\u4e94\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\uff08\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5e38\u770b\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6708\u589e 0.4%\u3001\u5e74\u589e 3.0%\uff1b\u7b2c 4 \u5b63 GDP 1.4%\uff1b\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b78\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff08Michigan sentiment\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u6c11\u773e\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8207\u652f\u51fa\u610f\u9858\uff0955.0\uff08\u524d\u503c 56.6\uff09\u3002  \n\n\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u8dcc\u3001\u6cb9\u50f9\u5927\u6f32\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5f8c\u7e8c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0b\u884c\u58d3\u529b\u8207\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u5927\u76e4\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u770b\u8dcc\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1b\u4ed8\u51fa\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u7528\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\uff09\u4f86\u907f\u96aa\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 SPY\uff08\u8ffd\u8e64\u6a19\u666e 500 \u7684 ETF\uff09\u8207 QQQ\uff08\u8ffd\u8e64\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b 100 \u7684 ETF\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u300c\u63a8\u7b97\u300d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u5927\u5c0f\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14 VIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff09\u5f9e\u4eca\u5e74\u4f4e\u9ede 15 \u5347\u5230 28\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u7528\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08put debit spread\uff0c\u8cb7\u4e00\u500b\u8ce3\u6b0a\u3001\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u66f4\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7372\u5229\uff09\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u9032\u5834\u6210\u672c\u3002  \n\n\u53ef\u95dc\u6ce8\u6700\u53d7\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7522\u696d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u822a\u7a7a\u8207\u90f5\u8f2a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u985e\u80a1\u6b63\u5728\u5e36\u982d\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u50cf\u806f\u5408\u822a\u7a7a\uff08UAL\uff09\u8207\u5609\u5e74\u83ef\uff08CCL\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\u7279\u5225\u5f31\uff0c\u9069\u5408\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u718a\u5e02\u8cb7\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bear call spread\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u8cfa\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0d\u6703\u5927\u6f32\uff09\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u904b\u8f38\u6307\u6578\u5927\u8dcc\u662f\u5e38\u898b\u8b66\u8a0a\uff0c\u56e0\u904b\u8f38\u80a1\u8f49\u5f31\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u666f\u6c23\u53ef\u80fd\u8f49\u5dee\u7684\u524d\u5146\u3002  \n\n\u504f\u591a\u65b9\u5411\uff08long side\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\uff09\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u570b\u9632\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u76f8\u5c0d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u53ef\u7528\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1b\u4ed8\u51fa\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u7528\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6d1b\u514b\u5e0c\u5fb7\u99ac\u4e01\uff08LMT\uff09\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u985e ETF\uff1aXLE\uff08Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e64\u7f8e\u570b\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u8ce3\u51fa\u73fe\u91d1\u64d4\u4fdd\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08cash-secured put\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u8ce3\u6b0a\u4e26\u6e96\u5099\u8db3\u5920\u73fe\u91d1\u5728\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff09\u4f86\u6536\u53d6\u76ee\u524d\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3002  \n\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5982\u4eca\u66f4\u96e3\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u5347\u7269\u50f9\uff0c3\/18 \u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u672c\u9031 CPI \u662f\u95dc\u9375\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u82e5\u901a\u81a8\u504f\u71b1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f37\u5316\u300c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u66f4\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u53ef\u7528\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5 ETF \u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 TLT\uff0c\u9577\u5929\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5 ETF\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff1b\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u50b5\u5238\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002  \n\n\u6211\u5011\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u521d\u4e5f\u898b\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u9020\u6210\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4e26\u63a8\u52d5\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7684\u718a\u5e02\uff08bear 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