{"id":39549,"date":"2026-03-09T10:59:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T10:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39549\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T10:59:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T10:59:04","slug":"%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e9%a3%86%e7%a0%b4100%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/analysis\/39549\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u7834100\u7f8e\u5143"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil5-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41760\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff0c\u5317\u6d77\u57fa\u6e96\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u958b\u76e4\u5c31\u7a81\u7834<strong>100 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u5230<strong>119.50 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u7576\u65e5\u4e0a\u6f32<strong>25%<\/strong>\u3002\u81ea\u5ddd\u666e\u4e0b\u4ee4\u653b\u64ca\u4f0a\u6717\u5f8c\uff0c\u7d2f\u8a08\u6f32\u5e45\u9054<strong>60%<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u539f\u6cb9\uff08US crude\uff0fWTI\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u57fa\u6e96\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u540c\u6a23\u5927\u5e45\u8df3\u6f32\u81f3<strong>104.880<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32<strong>+26.011\uff08+32.98%\uff09<\/strong>\uff1b\u77ed\u671f\u5230\u9577\u671f\u7684\u5747\u7dda\uff08MA\uff0c\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff1a\u628a\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u770b\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u5206\u5225\u70ba<strong>MA5 85.182<\/strong>\u3001<strong>MA10 76.122<\/strong>\u3001<strong>MA20 70.277<\/strong>\u3001<strong>MA30 68.146<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff08Risk assets\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u843d\u3001\u9700\u8981\u627f\u64d4\u8f03\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5982\u80a1\u7968\uff09\u5927\u8dcc\uff1a<strong>\u65e5\u7d93\u6307\u6578\u7d04 -7%<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u5357\u97d3\u7d04 -8%<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u53f0\u7063\u7d04 -5%<\/strong>\uff1b<strong>\u6b50\u6d32\u80a1\u6307\u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff1a\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e0b\u8dcc 1% \u5230 3%<\/strong>\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u80a1\u671f\u8ca8\u7d04 -2%<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u56e0\u7d20\uff08macro input\uff1a\u5f71\u97ff\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u8b8a\u6578\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u300c\u9650\u5236\u689d\u4ef6\u300d\uff08constraint\uff1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5361\u4f4f\u6210\u672c\u8207\u4f9b\u7d66\uff09\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u958b\u76e4\u7a81\u7834<strong>100 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u5f8c\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u885d\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u5230<strong>119.50 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e0a\u6f32<strong>25%<\/strong>\uff1b\u82e5\u6536\u76e4\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u55ae\u65e5\u6f32\u5e45\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8b93\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u5728\u5ddd\u666e\u4e0b\u4ee4\u653b\u64ca\u4f0a\u6717\u5f8c\u7684\u7d2f\u8a08\u6f32\u5e45\u9054<strong>60%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil just smashed through $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict enters its second week. Ruth Carson breaks down what\u2019s driving the surge as supply fears rattle markets: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nG4cG3rY6m\">https:\/\/t.co\/nG4cG3rY6m<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/v0zFMZQ7B5\">pic.twitter.com\/v0zFMZQ7B5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2030910664957440499?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u8d70\u52e2\u5e38\u898b\u65bc\u8870\u9000\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u540c\u300c\u8b8a\u76f8\u52a0\u7a05\u300d\uff1a\u904b\u8f38\u3001\u7528\u96fb\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u90fd\u6703\u88ab\u63a8\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u5feb\u901f\u6253\u64ca\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u6bcf\u55ae\u4f4d\u7522\u51fa\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u6bd4 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u8981\u4f9b\u61c9\u300c\u54bd\u5589\u9ede\u300d\uff08chokepoint\uff1a\u95dc\u9375\u901a\u9053\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u53d7\u963b\u5c31\u6703\u5361\u4f4f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u904b\u8f38\uff09\u51fa\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u88dc\u4e0a\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u73fe\u5728\u5728\u5b9a\u50f9\u300c\u6642\u9593\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff08duration risk\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u62d6\u5f97\u8d8a\u4e45\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u7576\u6210\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u4e2d\u65b7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5\u539f\u6cb9\u4ecd\u63a5\u8fd1\u55ae\u65e5<strong>25%<\/strong>\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u627f\u58d3\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6703\u7528\u907f\u96aa\uff08hedge\uff1a\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u4f4d\u62b5\u6d88\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u4f86\u9762\u5c0d\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u8def\u5f91\u8207\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u6210\u9577\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u5f88\u5feb\u8dcc\u56de 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u300d\uff08risk premium\uff1a\u56e0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u800c\u984d\u5916\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff09\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u822a\u904b\u91cf\u660e\u986f\u6062\u5fa9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u8b93\u300c\u50f9\u683c\u66b4\u885d\u300d\u8b8a\u6210\u300c\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3b\u56e0\u5728\u822a\u904b\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u7522\u6cb9\u5730\u5c64\u3002\u6cb9\u8f2a\u4e0d\u6562\u901a\u904e\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e5f\u61f7\u7591\u5728\u6230\u4e8b\u5347\u6eab\u6642\uff0c\u4fdd\u96aa\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u5426\u9858\u610f\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u50f9\u683c\u627f\u4fdd\u9019\u4e9b\u822a\u7dda\u3002\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u822a\u904b\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u904b\u8f38\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u505c\u64fa\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8b8a\u6162\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Saudi Aramco has offered prompt crude supply through a series of rare tenders, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz traps shipments and forces a rerouting of flows via the Red Sea <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KYt9roSAOx\">https:\/\/t.co\/KYt9roSAOx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2030877924761522344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6cb9\u904b\u4e0d\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u5132\u6cb9\u69fd\u5c31\u6703\u5f88\u5feb\u88ab\u585e\u6eff\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u6ce2\u7063\u570b\u5bb6\u63a5\u8457\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u6e1b\u7522\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u88dd\u4e0d\u51fa\u8ca8\u3002\u9019\u5f88\u95dc\u9375\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u95dc\u4e95\u518d\u91cd\u555f\u5e38\u9700\u6642\u9593\u8207\u8b39\u614e\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6cb9\u7530\u672c\u8eab\u6c92\u6709\u53d7\u640d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5\u6cb9\u8f2a\u6d41\u91cf\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u4ecd\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u5931\u5e8f\uff0c\u50f9\u5dee\uff08spreads\uff1a\u5169\u500b\u50f9\u683c\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd1\u6708\u8207\u9060\u6708\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u6cb9\u7a2e\uff09\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u82e5\u6d77\u8ecd\u91cd\u65b0\u6253\u901a\u5b89\u5168\u822a\u9053\u3001\u4fdd\u96aa\u6062\u5fa9\u627f\u4fdd\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u6025\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u770b\u5230\u904b\u8f38\u91cf\u7a69\u5b9a\u524d\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u71c3\u6599\u5e02\u5834\u6700\u5148\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u58d3\u529b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u6642\uff0c\u6210\u54c1\u6cb9\uff08refined products\uff1a\u7531\u539f\u6cb9\u63d0\u7149\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u5982\u6c7d\u6cb9\u3001\u67f4\u6cb9\u3001\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\uff09\u5e38\u6bd4\u539f\u6cb9\u66f4\u65e9\u53cd\u6620\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u5e02\u5834\u8a0a\u865f\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7d04\u4e00\u534a\u6b50\u6d32\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u8981\u7d93\u904e\u8a72\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u5df2\u5275<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5sb4bBM7Gl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">\u65b0\u9ad8<\/a>\uff0c\u6298\u5408\u7d04<strong>\u6bcf\u6876 190 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u6f32\u5e45\u6703\u5728\u5e7e\u5929\u5167\u6253\u64ca\u822a\u7a7a\u3001\u8ca8\u904b\u3001\u65c5\u904a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u624d\u53cd\u6620\uff1b\u4e5f\u6703\u900f\u904e\u904b\u8f38\u6210\u672c\u704c\u9032\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u3002\u822a\u7a7a\u516c\u53f8\u8abf\u6574\u7968\u50f9\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff1b\u7269\u6d41\u8abf\u6574\u904b\u8cbb\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u8f49\u5ac1\u5230\u5546\u54c1\u552e\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6298\u5408<strong>\u6bcf\u6876 190 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u822a\u7a7a\u8207\u65c5\u904a\u76f8\u95dc\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u7e8c\u8dcc\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u9700\u6c42\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u627f\u53d7\u300c\u8f38\u5165\u578b\u901a\u81a8\u300d\uff08imported inflation\uff1a\u56e0\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6280\u8853\u9762\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08<strong>CL-OIL<\/strong>\uff0c\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4ee3\u78bc\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u98c6\u5347\u81f3<strong>104.88 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u55ae\u65e5\u4e0a\u6f32<strong>+32.98%<\/strong>\u3002\u9019\u6ce2\u66b4\u6f32\u7531 80 \u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u5340\u9593\u5f37\u52e2\u7a81\u7834\u5f8c\u5f15\u7206\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u5ea6\u885d\u5230<strong>119.43 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5c0f\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u5c11\u898b\u7684\u55ae\u65e5\u5f37\u52e2\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cb7\u76e4\u52d5\u80fd\uff08bullish momentum\uff1a\u504f\u5411\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u6280\u8853\u9762\u770b\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u9ad8\u65bc\u5404\u671f\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7a81\u7834\u6709\u6548\u4e14\u529b\u5ea6\u5f88\u5f37\u3002<strong>5 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0885.18\uff09<\/strong>\u3001<strong>10 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0876.12\uff09<\/strong>\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5f4e\uff1b<strong>20 \u65e5\uff0870.27\uff09<\/strong>\u8207<strong>30 \u65e5\uff0868.15\uff09<\/strong>\u4ecd\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-9-1024x472.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43837\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u5747\u7dda\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u4e56\u96e2\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6f32\u52e2\u975e\u5e38\u731b\u70c8\uff0c\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u8655\u5728\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u653e\u5927\u968e\u6bb5\uff08high-volatility expansion\uff1a\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a81\u7136\u8b8a\u5927\u3001\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\u62c9\u9577\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u77ed\u7dda\u4f86\u770b\uff0c<strong>119.40 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u58d3\u529b\u4f4d\uff08resistance\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u5230\u67d0\u5340\u57df\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u5361\u4f4f\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u80fd\u7ad9\u7a69\u4e26\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f80<strong>120\u2013125 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u5340\u9593\u63a8\u9032\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u65b9\u652f\u6490\uff08support\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230\u67d0\u5340\u57df\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u6b62\u8dcc\uff09\u5148\u770b<strong>95\u2013100 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