{"id":39475,"date":"2026-03-07T03:00:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T03:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39475\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T03:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T03:00:20","slug":"bny-%e7%9a%84-bob-savage-%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e9%9a%a8%e8%91%97%e5%b0%8d%e6%b2%96%e9%83%a8%e4%bd%8d%e8%a7%a3%e9%99%a4%e4%b8%94%e5%a4%96%e6%b4%be%e5%9b%9e%e6%b5%81%e9%a9%85%e5%8b%95%e7%9a%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/39475\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY \u7684 Bob Savage \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5c0d\u6c96\u90e8\u4f4d\u89e3\u9664\u4e14\u5916\u6d3e\u56de\u6d41\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u96e2\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u9060\u671f\u8207\u5373\u671f\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u5206\u6b67"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7d10\u7d04\u6885\u9686\u9280\u884c\uff08BNY\uff09\u5e02\u5834\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7b56\u7565\u4e3b\u7ba1 Bob Savage \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\uff08CNY\uff09\u9060\u671f\uff08forward\uff0c\u6307\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u67d0\u5929\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u4ea4\u5272\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u8207\u5373\u671f\u532f\u7387\uff08spot rate\uff0c\u6307\u7576\u4e0b\u6210\u4ea4\u7684\u532f\u7387\uff09\u4e4b\u9593\u51fa\u73fe\u5f88\u5927\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u907f\u96aa\u90e8\u4f4d\u89e3\u9664\uff08hedge unwinding\uff0c\u6307\u539f\u672c\u7528\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u532f\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u88ab\u5e73\u5009\/\u64a4\u56de\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\uff08asset outflows\uff0c\u6307\u8cc7\u91d1\u96e2\u958b\u672c\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u76f8\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u540c\u985e\u8ca8\u5e63\uff08peer currencies\uff0c\u6307\u7d93\u6fdf\u7d50\u69cb\u6216\u5340\u57df\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff09\u8868\u73fe\u8f03\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u8cc7\u6599\uff08spot flow data\uff0c\u6307\u5373\u671f\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u9032\u51fa\uff09\u986f\u793a\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u5916\u79fb\uff08expatriation\uff0c\u6307\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\/\u8cc7\u91d1\u79fb\u5230\u5883\u5916\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u3002  \n\n\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5929\u51fa\u73fe\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u5916\u79fb\u6216\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f8c\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u63db\u532f\u4ea4\u6613\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u81ea\u885d\u7a81\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u9060\u671f\u8207\u63db\u532f\u6389\u671f\uff08swap\uff0c\u6307\u540c\u6642\u505a\u4e00\u7b46\u5373\u671f\u8207\u4e00\u7b46\u9060\u671f\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u8abf\u6574\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1\/\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff09\u6d3b\u52d5\u5e36\u4f86\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u4e26\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5148\u524d\u7684\u5f37\u52e2\u8d70\u52e2\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u7dad\u6301\u532f\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u627f\u8afe<\/h3>  \n\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u9280\u884c\uff08PBoC\uff09\u884c\u9577\u6f58\u529f\u52dd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u900f\u904e\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\uff08currency depreciation\uff0c\u6307\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u5f31\uff09\u4f86\u63d0\u5347\u8cbf\u6613\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5927\u81f4\u7a69\u5b9a\uff08broadly stable\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u53ef\u63a7\u5340\u9593\u5167\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u8cbf\u6613\u722d\u7aef\uff08trade disputes\uff0c\u6307\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6216\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\u5de5\u5177\u3002  \n\n\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u898b\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04\u8207\u5373\u671f\u50f9\u683c\u660e\u986f\u5206\u6b67\uff1a\u5373\u671f\u5728\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u8d70\u5f31\u30022026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u8ca1\u65b0\u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI\uff08Caixin Manufacturing PMI\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u9805\u4ee5\u4f01\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\/\u751f\u7522\u72c0\u6cc1\u8861\u91cf\u666f\u6c23\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff1b50 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\u300150 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u7e2e\uff09\u964d\u81f3 49.5\uff0c\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u64d4\u5fc3\u3002\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u300c\u5be6\u969b\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u300d\u8207\u300c\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u532f\u7387\u7684\u9810\u671f\u300d\u51fa\u73fe\u62c9\u626f\u3002  \n\n\u5373\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u75b2\u5f31\u4f3c\u4e4e\u76f4\u63a5\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u5916\u79fb\u6709\u95dc\uff1b\u8fd1\u4e00\u9031\u51fa\u73fe\u4eca\u5e74\u6700\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u5916\u6d41\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5916\u532f\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\uff08SAFE\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u9019\u9ede\uff1a2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u6de8\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5916\u6d41\uff08net portfolio outflows\uff0c\u6307\u80a1\u7968\/\u50b5\u5238\u7b49\u8b49\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\u8cc7\u91d1\u6de8\u6d41\u51fa\uff09\u5347\u81f3\u8d85\u904e 320 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u9019\u7a2e\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u626e\u6f14\u907f\u96aa\u8ca8\u5e63\uff08safe haven\uff0c\u6307\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u5b89\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u50be\u5411\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff09\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u61f7\u7591\u3002  \n\n\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u9060\u671f\u8207\u6389\u671f\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u537b\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u66f4\u5f37\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b98\u65b9\u6703\u51fa\u624b\u7dad\u7a69\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u9280\u884c\u9664\u4e86\u53e3\u982d\u8868\u614b\uff0c\u4e5f\u7528\u884c\u52d5\u914d\u5408\uff1a\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u6301\u7e8c\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u6bcf\u65e5\u4e2d\u9593\u50f9\uff08USD\/CNY reference rate\uff0c\u6307\u5b98\u65b9\u6bcf\u5929\u516c\u5e03\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u5f15\u5c0e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u532f\u7387\uff09\u8a2d\u5b9a\u5f97\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u5f37\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5b98\u65b9\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u662f\u907f\u514d\u532f\u7387\u66f4\u6df1\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u529b\u91cf\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u610f\u6db5<\/h3>  \n\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u8207 2025 \u5e74\u591a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u76f8\u4f3c\uff1a\u5b98\u65b9\u53cd\u5c0d\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5b8c\u5168\u963b\u6b62\u3002\u518d\u5f80\u524d\u770b\uff0c2015 \u8207 2023 \u5e74\u7684\u300c\u7ba1\u7406\u5f0f\u8cb6\u503c\u300d\uff08managed devaluations\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5f15\u5c0e\u4e0b\uff0c\u8b93\u532f\u7387\u9010\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff1a\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u58d3\u529b\u671f\u5bb9\u8a31\u7de9\u6162\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u7576\u524d\u5916\u6d41\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u9a57\u9019\u9805\u9577\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u3002  \n\n\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u6307\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u532f\u7387\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3001\u9060\u671f\u3001\u6389\u671f\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u62c9\u626f\u66f4\u9069\u5408\u505a\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u800c\u975e\u62bc\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8cb7\u9032\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u6642\u53ef\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u5426\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165 USD\/CNH \u770b\u6f32\u50f9\u5dee\uff08call spreads\uff0c\u6307\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u770b\u6f32\u3001\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u770b\u6f32\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff1bCNH \u6307\u96e2\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u5e03\u5c40\u4e00\u65e6\u592e\u884c\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u8b8a\u5f31\u800c\u51fa\u73fe\u6025\u5287\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6210\u672c\uff08cost of volatility\uff0c\u6307\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u4e2d\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u5728\u5b9a\u50f9\u300c\u7a69\u5b9a\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u6b63\u5728\u6311\u6230\u9019\u7a2e\u5047\u8a2d\u3002  \n\n\u8ce3\u51fa USD\/CNH \u9060\u671f\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6ea2\u50f9\uff08premium\uff0c\u6307\u5408\u7d04\u50f9\u683c\u4e2d\u53ef\u8cfa\u53d6\u7684\u50f9\u5dee\/\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u96d6\u7136\u8a98\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5373\u671f\u7a81\u7136\u52a0\u901f\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\uff08asymmetric risk\uff0c\u6307\u53ef\u80fd\u640d\u5931\u5927\u65bc\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\uff09\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u8f03\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u80fd\u660e\u78ba\u9650\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9818\u53e3\u7b56\u7565\uff08collars\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u4e26\u8ce3\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u5074\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u63db\u53d6\u8f03\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3001\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u7372\u5229\/\u98a8\u96aa\u5340\u9593\uff09\u3002\u9019\u80fd\u8b93\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u300c\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u6297\u300d\u7684\u9707\u76ea\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u61c9\u5c0d\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u9060\u671f\u8207\u5373\u671f\u56b4\u91cd\u80cc\u96e2\uff1a\u907f\u96aa\u64a4\u56de\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u62d6\u7d2f\u5373\u671f\u3002\u592e\u884c\u53e3\u982d\u8207\u5f37\u52e2\u4e2d\u9593\u50f9\u529b\u633a\uff0c\u4f46PMI\u8f49\u5f31\u3001\u5916\u6d41\u5347\u6eab\uff1b\u5b9c\u505a\u6ce2\u52d5\u7b56\u7565\u9632\u6025\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39475\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}