{"id":39419,"date":"2026-03-06T11:58:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T11:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39419\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T11:58:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T11:58:30","slug":"%e4%b8%b9%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e4%ba%ba%e5%93%a1%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f-2-%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%b1%e6%a5%ad%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e6%94%be%e7%b7%a9%e3%80%81%e5%a4%b1%e6%a5%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/39419\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e39\u65af\u514b\u9280\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u9810\u671f 2 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.3%\uff0c\u4e26\u95dc\u6ce8\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8207\u52de\u52d5\u6210\u672c\u52d5\u5411"},"content":{"rendered":"\u4e39\u65af\u514b\u9280\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u516c\u5e03\u6578\u64da\u662f 2 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5e38\u7528\u5b83\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u7f8e\u5143\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5f37\u6216\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u9810\u671f\u300c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u300d\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u542b\u8fb2\u696d\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u975e\u8fb2\uff09\u6703\u5f9e 1 \u6708\u7684 13 \u842c\u653e\u7de9\u5230 7 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff08\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.3%\u3002\n\n\u8a72\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u591a\u500b\u300c\u9ad8\u983b\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff08\u66f4\u65b0\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u80fd\u66f4\u5373\u6642\u53cd\u6620\u666f\u6c23\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff09\u986f\u793a\u9032\u5165 2 \u6708\u5f8c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u7a69\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u7533\u8acb\u3001ADP \u7684\u6bcf\u9031\u6c11\u9593\u5c31\u696d\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Indeed Hiring Lab \u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u8077\u7f3a\u6578\uff08\u7dda\u4e0a\u8077\u52d9\u520a\u767b\u91cf\uff09\u3002\u622a\u81f3 2 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u7576\u9031\uff0c\u300c\u521d\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u300d\uff08\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8acb\u5931\u696d\u88dc\u52a9\u7684\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u70ba 21.3 \u842c\u3002\n\n<h3>High Frequency Labor Signals<\/h3>\n\u300c\u7e8c\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u300d\uff08\u6301\u7e8c\u9818\u53d6\u5931\u696d\u88dc\u52a9\u7684\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u30022 \u6708 Challenger \u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u88c1\u54e1\u516c\u544a\u300d\uff08\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d\u5916\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u88c1\u54e1\u8a08\u756b\uff09\u7d93\u5b63\u7bc0\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e 1 \u6708\u7684 10.8 \u842c\u964d\u81f3 4.83 \u842c\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u62db\u8058\u516c\u544a\u300d\uff08\u4f01\u696d\u5ba3\u5e03\u8981\u62db\u4eba\u7684\u8a08\u756b\uff09\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u7b2c 4 \u5b63\u300c\u52de\u52d5\u751f\u7522\u529b\u300d\uff08\u6bcf\u55ae\u4f4d\u5de5\u6642\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u6210\u9577\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u503c\uff08flash\uff0c\u6307\u5148\u884c\/\u521d\u4f30\uff09\u4ee5\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u589e\u7387\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u5f9e\u7b2c 3 \u5b63\u7684 5.2% \u653e\u7de9\u81f3 2.8%\uff0c\u540c\u6642 GDP\uff08\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u9ad4\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u6578\u5b57\u4e5f\u8f03\u5f31\u3002\u300c\u55ae\u4f4d\u52de\u52d5\u6210\u672c\u300d\uff08\u6bcf\u55ae\u4f4d\u7522\u51fa\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u6210\u672c\uff09\u6210\u9577\u4ee5\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u589e\u7387\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u5f9e\u7b2c 3 \u5b63\u7684 -1.8% \u5347\u81f3 2.8%\u3002\n\n\u8a72\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff08\u50b5\u5238\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u300c\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\u300d\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff08swap rates\uff1b\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\u662f\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u63db\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u7ba1\u7406\u5229\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\u300cVIX \u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u3001\u300cMOVE \u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08\u50b5\u5e02\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u516c\u50b5\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\uff08credit spreads\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 iTraxx\uff1b\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u662f\u4f01\u696d\/\u4fe1\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u76f8\u5c0d\u7121\u98a8\u96aa\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4fe1\u7528\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u300cSchatz ASW \u5229\u5dee\u300d\u8b8a\u52d5\u4e0d\u5927\uff08ASW\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u4ea4\u63db\u5229\u5dee\uff1a\u628a\u50b5\u5238\u5831\u916c\u63db\u6210\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u5f8c\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4ea4\u63db\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5dee\uff1bSchatz \u6307\u5fb7\u570b 2 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>Derivative Positioning For Volatility<\/h3>\n\u76ee\u524d\uff0c2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u525b\u516c\u5e03\uff1a\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u9054 27.5 \u842c\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u5f88\u5f37\uff0c\u4f46\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e5f\u610f\u5916\u5347\u5230 3.9%\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u62db\u5de5\u5f37\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u537b\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u8b93\u5916\u754c\u66f4\u96e3\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u505a\u300c\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u300d\uff08\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3001\u4ea4\u63db\u7b49\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5229\u7387\u6216\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u70ba\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u505a\u597d\u6e96\u5099\u3002\n\n\u4e0d\u540c\u65bc 2025 \u5e74\u521d\u90a3\u7a2e\u300c\u6578\u64da\u5f37 \u2192 \u6b96\u5229\u7387\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u66f4\u8907\u96dc\u3002MOVE \u6307\u6578\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u5728 105 \u9644\u8fd1\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u628a\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7b97\u9032\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u504f\u5411\u300c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4e0a\u6216\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c31\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u300d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5408\u9069\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u4e0a\u8cb7\u300c\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08straddle\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u770b\u5230\u540c\u6a23\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u8b66\u6212\u3002VIX \u76ee\u524d\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u5728\u7d04 14 \u7684\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u8f03\u653e\u9b06\uff0c\u8b93\u50cf\u6a19\u666e 500 \u9019\u985e\u6307\u6578\u7684\u300c\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u8ce3\u6b0a\u300d\uff08put options\uff0c\u4fdd\u96aa\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u9632\u8b77\uff09\u76f8\u5c0d\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u8003\u616e\u5230\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u8a0a\u865f\u4e92\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u8cb7\u9032\u9019\u7a2e\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0b\u6a94\u4fdd\u96aa\u8f03\u70ba\u7a69\u5065\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u95dc\u6ce8\u52de\u52d5\u6210\u672c\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba 2025 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5b83\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u96e3\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u6642\u85aa\u300d\uff08\u5de5\u8cc7\u6210\u9577\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u4ee5\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408 Fed 2% \u901a\u81a8\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6210\u9577\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u5728\u300c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u884d\u751f\u6027\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\u4e2d\u300c\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u300d\uff08pay fixed\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6536\u53d6\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\uff09\u3002\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u5efa\u7acb\u4f60\u7684 VT Markets \u5373\u6642\u5e33\u6236<\/a>\u00a0\u4e26\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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