{"id":39341,"date":"2026-03-05T22:58:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T22:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39341\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T22:58:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T22:58:31","slug":"%e8%8b%b1%e9%8e%8a%e5%85%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e8%b5%b0%e5%bc%b1%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e8%88%87%e5%bc%b7%e5%8b%81%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%b0%b1%e6%a5%ad%e6%95%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/39341\/","title":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\uff1a\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u8207\u5f37\u52c1\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u62d6\u7d2f\u82f1\u938a"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u9031\u56db\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u5831 1.3337\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.25%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5728\u9031\u4e94\u300c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u300d\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 NFP\uff1b\u6307\u7f8e\u570b\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u8b39\u614e\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u9032\u5165\u7b2c\u516d\u5929\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u958b\u76e4\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002\u300c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08US Dollar Index\uff0cDXY\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u9023\u6f32\u7b2c\u4e09\u5929\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32 0.25% \u81f3 99.00\u3002\n\n<h3>\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37<\/h3>\n\u622a\u81f3 2 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u7576\u9031\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u521d\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u300d\uff08Initial 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\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u8b93\u4eba\u61f7\u7591\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7d93\u5b8c\u6210\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\uff08\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300dhawkish \u6307\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u81a8\u3002\uff09\n\n\u82f1\u570b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\uff1b\u5de5\u9ee8\u5728\u66fc\u5fb9\u65af\u7279\u5730\u65b9\u9078\u8209\u5931\u5229\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b NFP \u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u589e 5.9 \u842c\u500b\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5931\u696d\u7387 4.3%\u3002\n\n\u5f9e\u8d70\u52e2\u5716\u770b\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u5728 1.3331 \u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u7d04 1.3500 \u7684\u300c\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u300d\uff08moving averages\uff1b\u7528\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\u5e73\u6ed1\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u3002\u4e0a\u65b9\u58d3\u529b\uff08resistance\uff1b\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u96e3\u518d\u5f80\u4e0a\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff09\u5728 1.3400 \u8207 1.3500\uff1b\u4e0b\u65b9\u652f\u6490\uff08support\uff1b\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u6b62\u8dcc\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff09\u5728 1.3300\u30011.3250 \u8207 1.3200\u3002\n\n<h3>\u91cd\u65b0\u6574\u7406\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u96d6\u4ecd\u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u518d\u50cf 2025 \u5e74\u90a3\u6a23\u5f37\u52c1\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708 NFP \u986f\u793a\u65b0\u589e 18.5 \u842c\u500b\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5c0f\u5e45\u5347\u81f3 3.8%\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u964d\u6eab\u964d\u4f4e\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u300c\u8cb7\u7f8e\u5143\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u300d\uff08long dollar call options\uff1b\u8cb7\u9032\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\uff08\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u300doptions \u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff0c\u4ed8\u51fa\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u5f8c\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u6216\u8ce3\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff1b\u300c\u770b\u6f32\u300dcall \u662f\u770b\u597d\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\uff09\n\n\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u5f9e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u8d8a\u9ad8\u4ee3\u8868\u9810\u671f\u8d8a\u9707\u76ea\uff09\u4e5f\u6bd4 2025 \u5e74\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u6642\u671f\u660e\u986f\u4e0b\u964d\u3002Cboe\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08VIX\uff1b\u4ee5\u6a19\u666e 500 \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\/\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5728 14.5\uff0c\u5c6c\u76f8\u5c0d\u5e73\u7a69\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u300d\uff08option premium\uff1b\u8cb7\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9069\u5408\u8ce3\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3002\uff08\u8ce3\u65b9\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u627f\u64d4\u8f03\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\uff09\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u5340\u9593\u76e4\u6574\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u505a\u300c\u9435\u5140\u9df9\u300d\uff08iron condor\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e00\u7d44\u50f9\u5916\u770b\u8dcc\u8207\u50f9\u5916\u770b\u6f32\u3001\u4e26\u5404\u81ea\u7528\u66f4\u50f9\u5916\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u90e8\u4f4d\u505a\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u5340\u9593\u5167\uff0c\u8cfa\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u65b0\u6d88\u606f\u5e36\u52d5\u884c\u60c5\u3002\n\n\u82f1\u570b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7126\u9ede\u5f9e 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u65b0\u805e\u8f49\u5411\u7d93\u6fdf\u504f\u5f31\uff1a\u6700\u65b0 GDP\uff08\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a\u4e0a\u5b63\u50c5\u6210\u9577 0.2%\u3002\u82f1\u570b\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u5728 3.1%\uff0c\u8b93\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff0cBoE\uff1b\u82f1\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u66f4\u96e3\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u82f1\u938a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u504f\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u53cd\u5f48\u53ef\u80fd\u5bb9\u6613\u906d\u5230\u8ce3\u51fa\uff1b\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u82f1\u938a\u770b\u8dcc\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u300d\uff08GBP put options\uff1b\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u938a\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u4f5c\u70ba\u907f\u96aa\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\uff08\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u300dhedge \u6307\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u90e8\u4f4d\u62b5\u6d88\u539f\u6709\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\uff09\n\n\u6280\u8853\u9762\uff08technical outlook\uff1b\u7528\u50f9\u683c\/\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7b49\u5716\u8868\u8a0a\u865f\u5224\u65b7\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u96e3\u4ee5\u7a81\u7834 1.3000 \u9019\u500b\u300c\u5fc3\u7406\u95dc\u5361\u300d\uff08psychological level\uff1b\u6574\u6578\u50f9\u4f4d\u5e38\u5f15\u767c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u96c6\u4e2d\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7d50\u69cb\u8868\u9054\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u300c\u504f\u7a7a\u4f46\u4fdd\u5b88\u300d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u770b\u8dcc\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08bear put spread\uff1b\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u3001\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4e26\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7372\u5229\/\u8667\u640d\uff09\uff1a\u8cb7 1.2800 \u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u4e26\u8ce3 1.2650 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