{"id":31378,"date":"2025-11-14T08:31:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/31378\/"},"modified":"2025-11-14T08:31:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:31:38","slug":"%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e5%b0%8d%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e6%8c%81%e4%bf%9d%e7%95%99%e6%85%8b%e5%ba%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/analysis\/31378\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6536\u76ca\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u964d\u606f\u6301\u4fdd\u7559\u614b\u5ea6"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image_fx_-67-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16622\" \/><\/figure><p><strong>\u91cd\u9ede<\/strong><\/p><!-- \/wp:post-content --><ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><!-- wp:list-item --><li>\u6839\u64da CME FedWatch \u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c<strong>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/strong>\u5f9e\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u7684<strong>63%<\/strong>\u964d\u81f3<strong>50.7%<\/strong> \u3002<\/li><!-- \/wp:list-item --><li> <strong>10 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387<\/strong>\u6500\u5347\u81f3<strong>4.121%<\/strong> \uff0c\u800c<strong>2 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387<\/strong>\u5347\u81f3<strong>3.593%<\/strong> \u3002<\/li><!-- \/wp:list-item --><\/ul><!-- \/wp:list --><p>\u904e\u53bb24\u5c0f\u6642\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u4e0b\u8abf\u4e86<strong>\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u670312\u6708\u964d\u606f<\/strong>\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e94\u4e94\u958b\u3002\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9df9\u6d3e\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u63d0\u524d\u653e\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u7834\u6ec5\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u4e86\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>\u8056\u8def\u6613\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c<\/strong>\u4e3b\u5e2d<strong>\u963f\u723e\u8c9d\u6258\u00b7\u7a46\u85a9\u840a\u59c6<\/strong>\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5192\u904e\u5ea6\u5bec\u9b06\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u300c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u9b06\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>\u514b\u5229\u592b\u862d\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8c9d\u7d72\u00b7\u54c8\u99ac\u514b<\/strong>\u88dc\u5145\u8aaa\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5fc5\u9808\u4fdd\u6301\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u58d3\u529b\uff1b\u800c<strong>\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5c3c\u723e\u00b7\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u5229<\/strong>\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u4ed6\u53cd\u5c0d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u5c0d12\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u964d\u606f\u4ecd\u672a\u505a\u51fa\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch \u7684<\/a><\/strong>\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u671f<strong>12 \u6708 10 \u65e5\u7684<\/strong>\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a<strong>\u964d\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede<\/strong>\u7684<strong>\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba 50.7%<\/strong> \uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u7684<strong>63%<\/strong> \u3002 <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5805\u633a\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u8edf<\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>10 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08US10Y\uff09<\/strong>\u5f9e\u524d\u4e00\u65e5\u7684<strong>4.111%<\/strong>\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3<strong>4.121%<\/strong> \uff0c\u800c<strong>2 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387<\/strong>\u5f9e<strong>3.589%<\/strong>\u5347\u81f3<strong>3.593%<\/strong> \uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u8abf\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5f37\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08USDX\uff09<\/strong>\u4ecd\u4e0b\u8dcc<strong>0.1%<\/strong>\u81f3<strong>99.13<\/strong> \uff0c\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u6708\u5ea6\u4f4e\u9ede\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u75b2\u8edf\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u5f9e\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e2d\u7372\u76ca\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578<\/strong>\u8868\u73fe\u75b2\u8edf\uff0c\u51f8\u986f\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u56f0\u5883\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u52a0\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\uff08USNote10Y\uff09<\/strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u683c\u5728<strong>112.71<\/strong>\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32<strong>0.01%<\/strong> 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has-medium-font-size\">\u8b39\u614e\u9810\u6e2c<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u548c\u8fd1\u671f\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u9078\u64c7\u572812\u6708<strong>\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a<\/strong>\u3002\u82e510\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u7a81\u7834<strong>4.12%<\/strong>\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u5e36\u4f86\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u800c<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578<\/strong>\u8d70\u5f31\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u90e8\u5206\u7de9\u89e3\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u95dc\u6ce8\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u4f48\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u4fee\u6b63\u503c\u548c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4ecd\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph 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