{"id":17234,"date":"2024-10-22T03:14:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T03:14:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/hk\/?p=14175"},"modified":"2024-10-22T03:14:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T03:14:11","slug":"%e6%af%8f%e9%80%b1%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e9%bb%9e%e8%a9%95%ef%bc%9a%e6%a0%b8%e5%bf%83cpi%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e5%9b%9e%e8%90%bd-%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%88%96%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/outlook\/17234\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bcf\u9031\u5e02\u5834\u9ede\u8a55\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u9810\u671f\u56de\u843d \u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u6216\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u672c\u5468\uff0cVT Markets\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5c07\u63a2\u8a0e\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u7522\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5104\u842c\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6700\u4f4e\u6240\u5f97\u7a05\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u71d9\u624b\u5c71\u828b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u82e6\u82e6\u61c9\u5c0d\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u4ee5\u548c\u4e0d\u65b7\u64f4\u5927\u7684\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a72\u63d0\u6848\u5efa\u8b70\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u8d85\u904e1\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5bb6\u5ead\u5fb5\u653620%\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u623f\u7522\u7b49\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u800c\u6b64\u524d\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u7522\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u51fa\u552e\u4e26\u514c\u73fe\u5229\u6f64\u6642\u624d\u9700\u8981\u7d0d\u7a05\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u60f3\u50cf\u57c3\u9686\u00b7\u99ac\u65af\u514b (Elon Musk) \u7684\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u80a1\u50f9\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u5f9e 1,200 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u8e8d\u5347\u81f3 1,500 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4e0d\u51fa\u552e\u4efb\u4f55\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u70ba\u9019 300 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u589e\u9577\u7d0d\u7a05\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e2e\u5c0f\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd<\/h2>\n

\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u5f9e 2025 \u5e74\u5230 2034 \u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5e36\u4f86 5030 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u91d1\u5c07\u7528\u65bc\u5152\u7ae5\u4fdd\u80b2\u652f\u63f4\u548c\u9996\u6b21\u8cfc\u623f\u8005\u63f4\u52a9\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u54c8\u88e1\u65af\u5805\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\u9019\u4e00\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u5979\u8868\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u8207\u89e3\u6c7a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5747\u7684\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u8b70\u7a0b\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002 2022 \u5e74 YouGov \u7684\u4e00\u9805\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c57% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u5104\u842c\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6c92\u6709\u652f\u4ed8\u61c9\u5f97\u7684\u4efd\u984d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u516c\u773e\u5c0d\u6b64\u8868\u793a\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u904e\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bcc\u88d5\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u7a05\u6536\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u5f9e\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7e2e\u5c0f\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u70ba\u4e2d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8a08\u756b\u63d0\u4f9b\u8cc7\u91d1\u652f\u63f4\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u8209\u63aa\u5c07\u5f97\u5230\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u7684\u8a8d\u53ef\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u64d4\u5fc3\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u52a0\u5287\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u6975\u5927\u963b\u7919\uff0c\u963b\u7919\u4e0d\u50c5\u4f86\u81ea\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\uff0c\u9084\u4f86\u81ea\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u5167\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u9662\uff0c\u4f46\u63d0\u6848\u4ecd\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u904e\u6703\u4e2d\u9806\u5229\u901a\u904e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4fbf\u6700\u7d42\u7372\u5f97\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9762\u81e8\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u6b64\u524d\u5f9e\u672a\u5c0d\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u6536\u76ca\u9032\u884c\u5fb5\u7a05\u3002\u62dc\u767b\u66fe\u5617\u8a66\u5c07\u5176\u7d0d\u5165 2023 \u30012024 \u548c 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u672a\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u6216\u5c07\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u9023\u9396\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u5bcc\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5728\u6bcf\u500b\u7d0d\u7a05\u5e74\u5ea6\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u552e\u8cc7\u7522\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u5e33\u55ae\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u751a\u81f3\u5d29\u76e4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bcc\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u7684\u51fa\u9003<\/h2>\n

\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0a\u5e02\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8907\u96dc\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u6563\u6236\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6216\u5275\u65b0\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u90a3\u4e9b\u8d85\u7d1a\u5bcc\u8c6a\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4ee5\u8cc7\u7522\u4f5c\u62b5\u62bc\u501f\u6b3e\u4f86\u7e73\u7d0d\u7a05\u6b3e\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u8cc7\u672c\u5916\u9003\uff0c\u5373\u5bcc\u4eba\u5c07\u8cc7\u91d1\u6216\u696d\u52d9\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u7a05\u6cd5\u66f4\u512a\u60e0\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u840e\u7e2e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5104\u842c\u5bcc\u7fc1\u5011\u5c0d\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u53cd\u61c9\u6d88\u6975\u3002\u99ac\u514b\u00b7\u5eab\u73ed\u5728\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u96d6\u7136\u8ca1\u5bcc\u731b\u589e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u624b\u982d\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u73fe\u91d1\u4f86\u70ba\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7e73\u7a05\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u7d04\u7ff0\u00b7\u4fdd\u723e\u68ee\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6703\u5c07\u8cc7\u91d1\u64a4\u51fa\u7f8e\u570b\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u6301\u6709\u73fe\u91d1\u548c\u9ec3\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u6b64\u985e\u7a05\u6536\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u76ee\u524d\u91dd\u5c0d\u7684\u662f\u8d85\u7d1a\u5bcc\u8c6a\uff08\u6700\u5bcc\u6709\u7684 0.01%\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6b77\u53f2\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7a05\u6536\u653f\u7b56\u5230\u4f4d\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e0d\u7981\u5f15\u767c\u6c11\u773e\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u5373\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u611f\u5230\u624b\u982d\u62ee\u636e\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u7a05\u6536\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u53ca\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7d93\u6fdf\u5931\u8861\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u3002<\/p>\n

\u54c8\u88e1\u65af\u5c0d\u5104\u842c\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6700\u4f4e\u7a05\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6b63\u597d\u7b26\u5408\u5979\u89e3\u6c7a\u8ca1\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5747\u7684\u4f7f\u547d\uff0c\u4f46\u969c\u7919\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u9019\u9805\u7a05\u6536\u80fd\u5920\u514b\u670d\u6240\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u969c\u7919\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u5275\u65b0\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u8207\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/h2>\n

\u672c\u5468\uff0c\u5e7e\u4ef6\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u9031\u4e8c\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u76ee\u5149\u90fd\u5c07\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u5b89\u5fb7\u9b6f\u00b7\u8c9d\u5229\u7684\u8b1b\u8a71\u4e0a\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5c07\u5c0b\u627e\u6709\u95dc\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4f9d\u7136\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u8c9d\u5229\u6697\u793a\u9df9\u6d3e\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u4e0a\u76e4\u6574\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u66f4\u52a0\u8b39\u614e\u7684\u57fa\u8abf\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8b93\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u8655\u65bc\u6301\u6709\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u9031\u4e09\u767c\u4f48\u5229\u7387\u8072\u660e\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u964d\u606f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u5f9e 4.25% \u964d\u81f3 3.75%\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u7d93\u6d88\u5316\u4e86\u6b64\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5728\u516c\u544a\u767c\u4f48\u5f8c\u5c0b\u6c42\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u52a0\u5143\u7684\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u96e2\u9810\u671f\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n

PMI \u9810\u8a08\u70ba 40.7\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6301\u7e8c\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u800c\u670d\u52d9\u696d PMI \u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5728 50.6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u6578\u64da\u8207\u9019\u4e9b\u9810\u6e2c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5411\u4e0a\u76e4\u6574\u3002\u5728\u82f1\u570b\uff0c\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u548c\u670d\u52d9\u696d PMI \u521d\u503c\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u8868\u73fe\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u5206\u5225\u70ba 51.5 \u548c 52.3\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u7dad\u6301\u4e0a\u884c\u8ecc\u8de1\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7f8e\u5143\u65e5\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u81e8\u4e0b\u884c\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da<\/strong>\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u5916\u4fdd\u6301\u8b39\u614e\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u672c\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\u767c\u8868\u8072\u660e\u5f8c\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u6708\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e 0.9% \u653e\u7de9\u81f3 0.5%\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u52a0\u5143\u6210\u70ba\u7126\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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