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\u6b50\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0cEUR\/USD\u65bc1.1370\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u5fb7\u570bIFO\u5546\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\u9810\u6e2c\u70ba86.1\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u524d\u503c85.6\uff1b\u6b50\u5143\u5340HICP\u901a\u8139\u9810\u8a08\u6309\u5e742.9%\uff0c\u524d\u503c2.8%\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u6599\u70ba2.4%\u3002GBP\/USD\u7d04\u65bc1.3325\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7b49\u5f85BoE\u8b70\u606f\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff09\u65bc3.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff1b\u4e0a\u6b21\u6295\u7968\u70ba7\u6bd42\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\u53ca\u66f4\u65b0\u9810\u6e2c\u3002USD\/JPY\u65bc163.80\u9644\u8fd1\u4f01\u7a69\uff0cBoJ\u8b70\u606f\u5728\u5373\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u73871.00%\uff1b\u6771\u4eacCPI\uff08\u6487\u9664\u65b0\u9bae\u98df\u54c1\uff09\u9810\u8a08\u6309\u5e741.8%\uff0c\u524d\u503c1.6%\uff1b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u6599\u70ba2.5%\uff1b\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u589e\u9577\u9810\u8a082.8%\uff0c\u524d\u503c5.3%\u3002AUD\/USD\u63a5\u8fd10.6980\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u6708\u5ea6CPI\u9810\u6e2c\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u53470.3%\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u70ba-0.7%\uff1b\u6309\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u70ba4.0%\uff0c\u7d93\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\uff08trimmed mean\uff09\u6309\u5e743.6%\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u6708\u5ea6\u6307\u6a19\u9810\u8a080.4%\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u9810\u6e2c\u70ba49.9\uff0c\u524d\u503c50.3\uff1b\u975e\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u9810\u6e2c50.0\uff0c\u524d\u503c50.2\u3002WTI\u65bc\u6bcf\u687689.20\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u7d04\u58314,065\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u592e\u884c\u8b70\u606f\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

2026\u5e74\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u5c0d\u671f\u6b0a\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u6700\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u661f\u671f\u5373\u5c07\u5c55\u958b\uff0cFed\u3001BoE\u53caBoJ\u6e96\u5099\u516c\u5e03\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u591a\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u592e\u884c\u8b70\u606f\u9031\u671f\u91cd\u758a\u6642\uff0cG10\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff09\u5f80\u5f80\u986f\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u6578\u5929\u7d2f\u5347\u903e15%\u3002\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u70ba\u6355\u6349\u671f\u6b0a\u6ea2\u50f9\u64f4\u5f35\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662fEUR\/USD\u53caUSD\/JPY\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3b\u8981\u592e\u884c\u81ea7\u670829\u65e5\u8d77\u5c07\u9678\u7e8c\u516c\u5e03\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728Fed\u9810\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\u5c07\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u63aa\u8fad\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u672c\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6700\u65b0\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08dot plot\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u8b70\u606f\u8072\u660e\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u5c07\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e73\u5e38\u3002\u65bc\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u9577\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7a81\u767c\u8d70\u52e2\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u5468\u56db\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u8139\u62162.3%\u7684GDP\u9810\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u4e0d\u53ca\u9810\u671f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

BoE\u5468\u56db\u9810\u671f\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3001\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.75%\uff0c\u70ba\u671f\u6b0a\u6ea2\u50f9\u8ce3\u65b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u8f03\u4f73\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u53ef\u9810\u671f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e0a\u6b217\u6bd42\u7684\u6295\u7968\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5728\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u89f8\u767c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u843d\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u65bc\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577Andrew Bailey\u8b1b\u8a71\u524d\uff0c\u5728GBP\/USD\u90e8\u7f72\u9435\u5140\u9df9\uff08iron condor\uff09\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u64e0\u58d3\u300d\uff08volatility crush\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u65bc163.80\u9019\u4e00\u654f\u611f\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u5c0d\u5468\u4e94BoJ\u6c7a\u5b9a\u53ca\u6771\u4eacCPI\u6578\u64da\u5c24\u5176\u654f\u611f\u3002\u82e5BoJ\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u73871.00%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u96f6\u552e\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u81f3\u9810\u6e2c\u76842.8%\uff0c\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\uff08yen carry trade\uff09\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u6025\u901f\u5e73\u5009\u3002\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\u6b64\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165USD\/JPY\u50f9\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff09\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u53ef\u5728\u532f\u50f9\u6025\u632b\u9006\u8f49\u6642\u4fdd\u8b77\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u9632\u7bc4\u660e\u986f\u4e0b\u884c\u53cd\u8f49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u4ea4\u6613\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n

\u5546\u54c1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u5728\u524d\u6240\u672a\u898b\u76844,065\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0cWTI\u539f\u6cb9\u5247\u65bc89.20\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u9ec3\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\uff08Treasury yields\uff09\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u800c\u5b73\u606f\u5c07\u53d7\u5468\u4e09Fed\u8a9e\u8abf\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u9ec3\u91d1\u90e8\u7f72\u725b\u5e02\u8a8d\u8cfc\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u671f\u6b0a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728PCE\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u504f\u8edf\u5f15\u767c\u4e0a\u5347\u884c\u60c5\u6642\u628a\u63e1\u6f5b\u5728\u5347\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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