{"id":47281,"date":"2026-05-14T03:09:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T03:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/47281\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T03:09:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T03:09:09","slug":"%e5%8d%a1%e4%bb%80%e5%8d%a1%e9%87%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e9%9c%8d%e7%88%be%e6%9c%a8%e8%8c%b2%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%bd%e8%8b%a5%e5%8f%97%e5%b9%b2%e6%93%be%e6%88%96%e4%bb%a4%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e9%80%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/47281\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u91cc\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u82e5\u53d7\u5e72\u64fe\u6216\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u3000\u5e02\u5834\u6599\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u606f\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5730\u5340\u5206\u884c\uff09\u884c\u9577\u5c3c\u723e\uff0e\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u5229\uff08Neel Kashkari\uff09\u5468\u4e09\u5728\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u8056\u4fdd\u7f85\uff08St. Paul\uff09\u5730\u5340\u5546\u6703\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\u662f\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u9053\uff09\u6703\u95dc\u9589\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9700\u8981\u628a\u901a\u8139\u62c9\u56de2%\uff08\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e0c\u671b\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u901a\u8139\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u7a31\u4e0d\u61c9\u6539\u8b8a\u9019\u500b2%\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u95dc\u9589\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u885d\u64ca\uff08inflation shock\uff0c\u7531\u5916\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7a81\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u50f9\uff09\u4e0d\u6703\u6e1b\u8f15\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u4f46\u6703\u4ee4\u5de5\u4f5c\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u6b63\u56de\u843d\u81f32%\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u901a\u8139\u524d\u666f\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\uff08labour market\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u8207\u62db\u8058\u60c5\u6cc1\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\u6a6b\u884c\uff0c\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u300c\u6eab\u6eab\u5730\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u770b\u4f86\u4ecd\u80fd\u6490\u4f4f\uff1b\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e0d\u80af\u5b9a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5c0d\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\uff08mortgage rates\uff0c\u623f\u5c4b\u501f\u8cb8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7522\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u90e8\u7f72\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387<\/h3>\n

2025\u5e74\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u4ee4WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08West Texas Intermediate\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u57fa\u6e96\u539f\u6cb9\uff09\u50f9\u683c\u5347\u7a7f\u6bcf\u6876120\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u5176\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u7d0495\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\uff08geopolitical risk premium\uff0c\u56e0\u6230\u4e8b\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a69\u800c\u984d\u5916\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7684\u300c\u9644\u52a0\u6210\u672c\u300d\uff09\u5df2\u660e\u986f\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e2d\u6771\u4e00\u65e6\u518d\u6709\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u5bb9\u6613\u518d\u6025\u5347\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08long-dated call options\uff0c\u8f03\u9577\u5230\u671f\u3001\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u7528\u6295\u8cc7\u5de5\u5177\u6e1b\u4f4e\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u901a\u8139\u8b8a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u300c\u9ecf\u300d\uff08sticky inflation\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u7de9\u6162\u3001\u96e3\u4ee5\u964d\u6eab\uff09\u3002\u4ee52026\u5e744\u6708\u7684\u6700\u65b0CPI\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u91cf\u5ea6\u901a\u8139\uff09\u5831\u544a\u8a08\uff0c\u6309\u5e74\u53473.4%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u9019\u5370\u8b49\u4e862025\u5e74\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff1a\u5916\u90e8\u885d\u64ca\u6703\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u56de\u52302%\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u5b9c\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u91cb\u653e\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy easing\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u5c11\u6536\u7dca\u529b\u5ea6\uff09\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8f03\u5408\u7406\u7684\u662f\u7e7c\u7e8c\u90e8\u7f72\u300c\u9ad8\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u4ecd\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eca\u5e74\u8f03\u5f8c\u6642\u9593\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u5f37\u97cc\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ef6\u5f8c\u3002\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u4ee5SOFR\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u9694\u591c\u6709\u62b5\u62bc\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u4f5c\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff08options strategies\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u90e8\u7f72\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u88ab\u8feb\u628a\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u5e74\u5e95\u6642\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u6240\u7a31\u7684\u300c\u6eab\u6eab\u5730\u300d\u8207\u300c\u4ecd\u53ef\u6490\u4f4f\u300d\u5927\u81f4\u7b26\u5408\u73fe\u6cc1\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u65b0\u589e21\u842c\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57283.8%\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u5c31\u696d\u70ba\u7531\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u6027\u3002\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u628a\u91cd\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u58d3\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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