{"id":47248,"date":"2026-05-13T10:45:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T10:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/47248\/"},"modified":"2026-05-13T10:45:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T10:45:21","slug":"%e6%ad%90%e5%85%83%e5%85%8c%e8%8b%b1%e9%8e%8a%e4%b8%8a%e6%8f%9a%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e9%a0%98%e5%b0%8e%e5%b1%a4%e5%8b%95%e7%9b%aa%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e5%9c%8b%e5%82%b5%e5%ad%b3%e6%81%af%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/47248\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u82f1\u938a\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u52d5\u76ea\u63a8\u9ad8\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e26\u52a0\u5287\u82f1\u938a\u6ce2\u52d5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u82f1\u938a\u53d7\u82f1\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u52a0\u5287\u62d6\u7d2f\u800c\u8d70\u5f31\uff0cEUR\/GBP \u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u903e 90 \u540d\u570b\u6703\u8b70\u54e1\uff08MP\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u4e0b\u8b70\u9662\u8b70\u54e1\uff09\u8981\u6c42\u9996\u76f8\u65bd\u7d00\u8ce2\uff08Starmer\uff09\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u53e6\u6709\u56db\u540d\u5927\u81e3\u8fad\u8077\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u9054 80 \u540d\u5de5\u9ee8\u8b70\u54e1\u4ea6\u8981\u6c42\u65bd\u7d00\u8ce2\u8fad\u8077\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u516d\u540d\u90e8\u9577\u52a9\u7406\u8acb\u8fad\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u56e0\u6182\u616e\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u66f4\u66ff\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u8f49\u5411\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u62d6\u7d2f\u82f1\u938a<\/h3>\n<p>\u50b5\u5e02\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u65b0\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u53ef\u80fd\u63a1\u53d6\u8f03\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u958b\u652f\u6216\u6e1b\u7a05\uff0c\u4ee4\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c30 \u5e74\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff08Gilt\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u884c\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5347\u81f3 1998 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u9010\u6b65\u8a08\u5165\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff09\u66f4\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\uff08Prediction markets\uff0c\u4ee5\u8ced\u76e4\/\u5408\u7d04\u53cd\u6620\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u65bd\u7d00\u8ce2\u65bc 6 \u6708\u524d\u96e2\u4efb\u6a5f\u7387\u7d04 70%\uff0c\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u7d04 85%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4ea4\u6613\u5f71\u97ff\u8207\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u8a8d\u70ba\u9996\u76f8\u65bc 6 \u6708\u524d\u8fad\u8077\u6a5f\u7387\u9ad8\u9054 70%\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u984c\u3002\u82f1\u938a\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u532f\u7387\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u7d66\u4e88\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff093 \u500b\u6708\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u5012\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f3 12% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u70ba 2022 \u5e74\u9810\u7b97\u6848\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 EUR\/GBP \u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\uff0fcall\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u5347 EUR\/GBP \u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u6700\u5927\u8667\u640d\u4e4b\u4e0b\u53c3\u8207\u884c\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u50b5\u5e02\u4ea6\u767c\u51fa\u58d3\u529b\u8a0a\u865f\uff1a\u82f1\u570b 10 \u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5347\u7a7f 4.85%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6182\u616e\u65b0\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u6216\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6b64\u53cd\u61c9\u4ee4\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9700\u8a08\u5165\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u58d3\u5236\u6f5b\u5728\u901a\u8139\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u6cbd\u51fa\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Gilt futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u82f1\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u90e8\u7f72\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u82f1\u938a\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u653f\u5c40\u9707\u76ea\u5f15\u7206\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u62bd\u5347\u3001\u907f\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u6ce2\u5e45\u64f4\u5927\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7dca\u76ef\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}