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\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u5468\u4e8c\u8dcc\u7a7f 1.1750\uff0c\u5468\u4e00\u65bc 1.1790 \u9644\u8fd1\u672a\u80fd\u7a81\u7834\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6182\u616e\u7f8e\u4f0a\u505c\u706b\u5c40\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u6210\u7126\u9ede<\/h3>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u91cf\u5ea6\u4e00\u822c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e8c\u7a0d\u5f8c\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c4\u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08headline\uff0c\u5373\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5347 3.7%\uff0c\u70ba 2023 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff1b\u6838\u5fc3 CPI\uff08core\uff0c\u5373\u5254\u9664\u8f03\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u66f4\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u672c\u901a\u8139\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u9810\u8a08\u6309\u5e74\u5347 2.7%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc 3 \u6708\u7684 2.6%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b ZEW \u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\uff08\u7531\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4eba\u58eb\u8abf\u67e5\u5f97\u51fa\u3001\u53cd\u6620\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6a19\uff095 \u6708\u5347\u81f3 -10.2\uff0c4 \u6708\u70ba -17.2\uff0c\u4ea6\u597d\u904e\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684 -19.8\u3002\u53cd\u6620\u73fe\u6cc1\u7684\u5206\u9805\u6307\u6a19\u5247\u7531 -73.7 \u8dcc\u81f3 -77.8\uff0c\u5dee\u904e\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u7684 -77.5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f9e 4 \u5c0f\u6642\u5716\u770b\uff0c\u52d5\u80fd\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u5f37\u5f31\u6307\u6578\uff08RSI\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u8cb7\u8ce3\u529b\u5ea6\u3001\u5e38\u7528\u4f5c\u5224\u65b7\u8d85\u8cb7\u8d85\u8ce3\uff09\u7d04 47\uff1bMACD\uff08\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u6536\u6582\/\u767c\u6563\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u7528\u5169\u689d\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5224\u65b7\u8da8\u52e2\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc\u96f6\u3002\u652f\u6301\u4f4d\u5728 1.1725 \u53ca 1.1645\u20131.1675\uff1b\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\u5728 1.1790\u20131.1800 \u53ca 1.1850\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\u5de6\u53f3\u524d\u666f<\/h3>\n

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\u7f8e\u570b 2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u6700\u65b0 CPI \u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u964d\u81f3 2.9%\uff0c\u8f03 2025 \u5e74\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5f8c\u7684 3.7% \u9ad8\u4f4d\u660e\u986f\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u6642\u9593\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u6839\u64da CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u524d\u9996\u6b21\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7d04 60%\uff0c\u800c\u6642\u9593\u8868\u4ecd\u4e0d\u65b7\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u90e8\u7f72 EUR\/USD \u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u884c\u6216\u4e0a\u884c\u53d7\u9650\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7d04 1.1000\u3001\u5230\u671f\u7d04 6 \u81f3 8 \u661f\u671f\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put option\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u671f\u6b0a\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u8b93\u8cb7\u65b9\u6709\u6b0a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\uff1b\u5e38\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u53ef\u8f03\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u5c0d\u6c96\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8dcc\u52e2\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u6700\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\u6e05\u695a\u9650\u5b9a\u5728\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\u984d\u3002<\/p>\n

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