{"id":47185,"date":"2026-05-12T15:41:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T15:41:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/47185\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T15:41:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T15:41:22","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8badp%e5%9b%9b%e5%91%a8%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e6%96%b0%e5%a2%9e%e8%81%b7%e4%bd%8d%e9%99%8d%e8%87%b33-3%e8%90%ac%ef%bc%8c%e5%bc%b7%e5%8c%96%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%b0%8d%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/47185\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570bADP\u56db\u5468\u5e73\u5747\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\u964d\u81f33.3\u842c\uff0c\u5f37\u5316\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u6df1\u5ea6\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570b ADP \u5c31\u696d\u8b8a\u52d5\uff08ADP Employment Change\uff0c\u6307\u7531 ADP \u79c1\u71df\u85aa\u916c\u670d\u52d9\u5546\u6309\u5176\u50f1\u4e3b\u6578\u64da\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u6e1b\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u89c0\u5bdf\u79c1\u71df\u5c31\u696d\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff094 \u9031\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u65bc 4 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u964d\u81f3 3.3 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u70ba 3.925 \u842c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8f03\u4e0a\u4e00\u500b 4 \u9031\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6e1b\u5c11 0.625 \u842c\u4eba\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u6db5\u84cb\u622a\u81f3 4 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u7684\u6700\u8fd1\u56db\u661f\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>ADP \u56db\u9031\u8da8\u52e2\u8207\u5b8f\u89c0\u8a0a\u865f<\/h3>\n<p>\u56de\u9867\u6b77\u53f2\uff0cADP 4 \u9031\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u65bc 2025 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u964d\u81f3 3.3 \u842c\uff0c\u5c6c\u7d93\u6fdf\u660e\u986f\u653e\u6162\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u6b64\u8da8\u52e2\u5176\u5f8c\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u9577\u591a\u6b21\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u3002\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u6301\u7e8c\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u4ee4\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u4e2d\u671f\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u56de\u843d\u81f3 2.3%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\u4fc3\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u65bc 2025 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u6e1b\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u3001\u6bcf\u6b21 0.25 \u5398\uff0c\u5373\u5408\u5171 0.75 \u5398\uff0875 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff1b\u57fa\u9ede basis point \u6307 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7528\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u8f03\u9ad8\u4f4d\u56de\u843d\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u73fe\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\uff08fully priced in\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u8ca8\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u5de5\u5177\u50f9\u683c\u5df2\u8a08\u5165\uff09\u5230 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u81f3\u5c11\u518d\u6e1b\u5169\u6b21\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08interest rate derivatives\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u8ddf\u96a8\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u6389\u671f\uff09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u90e8\u7f72\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u53cd\u6620\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u6e1b\u606f\u7bc0\u594f\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 SOFR\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u56de\u8cfc\u4ea4\u6613\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\uff09\u6216\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed Funds futures\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u8cb7\u65b9\u6709\u6b0a\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u5f31\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3001\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u5feb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u8a72\u7b56\u7565\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u4e00\u822c\u5229\u597d\u589e\u9577\u578b\u677f\u584a\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u975e\u5fc5\u9700\u6d88\u8cbb\u76f8\u95dc\u6307\u6578\uff08consumer discretionary\uff0c\u6307\u53ef\u9078\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\uff09\u5982\u7d0d\u65af\u9054\u514b 100\uff08Nasdaq 100\uff09\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u8fd1\u65e5\u5347\u81f3 4.4%\uff0c\u5b9c\u4ee5\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u76f8\u53cd\u6216\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u5009\u4f4d\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3001\u50f9\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff0c\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u5c0d\u8cb7\u65b9\u4e0d\u5229\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u9760\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u7372\u5229\uff09\u7684 VIX \u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff1bVIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6a19\u666e 500 \u671f\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u82e5\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5dee\u6642\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8ca8\u5e63\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n<p>\u6b64\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\uff08policy divergence\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u592e\u884c\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\u4ea6\u5e36\u4f86\u5916\u532f\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08currency derivatives\uff0c\u8207\u532f\u7387\u639b\u920e\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5982\u5916\u532f\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u9060\u671f\uff09\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u7576\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u592e\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08U.S. dollar\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u6613\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u671f\u6b0a\u90e8\u7f72\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u514c\u65e5\u5713\u53ca\u745e\u58eb\u6cd5\u90ce\u7b49\u5229\u7387\u8f03\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ADP\u56db\u5468\u5e73\u5747\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\u8dcc\u81f33.3\u842c\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u8f49\u5f31\u8a0a\u865f\u660e\u78ba\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u6df1\u5ea6\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53d7\u58d3\u3001\u7f8e\u50b5\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u77ed\u7dda\u6216\u53d7\u63d0\u632f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}