{"id":46949,"date":"2026-05-07T11:57:57","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T11:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46949\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T11:57:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T11:57:57","slug":"%e6%ad%90%e5%85%83%e5%8d%80%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e8%b7%b3%e5%8d%87%e8%87%b33%ef%bc%8c%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e7%87%83%e6%96%99%e6%80%a5%e5%8d%87%e4%bb%a4%e6%ad%90%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/46949\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u8139\u8df3\u5347\u81f33%\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u9ad8\u71c3\u6599\u6025\u5347\u4ee4\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u606f\u524d\u666f\u8499\u9670"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08\u5373\u628a\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u5167\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff09\u75312\u6708\u6309\u5e741.9%\u5347\u81f34\u6708\u6309\u5e743.0%\u3002\u5347\u5e45\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u50b3\u5c0e\u81f3\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\uff08\u5373\u6cb9\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u96f6\u552e\u6c7d\u6cb9\u3001\u67f4\u6cb9\u7b49\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f30\u7b97\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u81ea2\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u71c3\u6599\u50f9\u683c\u70ba\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u8ca2\u737b\u7d041.1\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002\u5728\u57fa\u6e96\u60c5\u666f\uff08baseline scenario\uff0c\u5373\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e3b\u60c5\u666f\uff09\u4e0b\uff0c\u82e5\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u904b\u8981\u9053\uff09\u5728\u6578\u5468\u5167\u91cd\u958b\uff0c\u71c3\u6599\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u901a\u8139\u63a8\u5347\u6548\u61c9\u9810\u8a08\u5df2\u65bc4\u6708\u898b\u9802\u3002<\/p>\n

2027\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n

4\u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u5347\u81f33%\uff0c\u70ba2023\u5e74\u672b\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\u9810\u671f\u900f\u904e\u9593\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u53ca\u300c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u5373\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5f15\u767c\u5de5\u8cc7\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u518d\u4e0a\u8abf\uff0c\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u5c07\u65bc2027\u5e74\u521d\u63a8\u9ad8\u81f3\u7d043.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8ff0\u56e0\u7d20\u4ea6\u6599\u63a8\u9ad8\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5373\u6263\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u9805\u76ee\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c2027\u5e74\u521d\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7d04\u70ba\u6309\u5e742.6%\u3002\u5c55\u671b\u8207\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff08\u4ee4\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u7dca\u5f35\u3001\u5de5\u8cc7\u58d3\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u52a0\u5927\u958b\u652f\u6216\u6e1b\u7a05\u4ee5\u63a8\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u98a8\u96aa\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u76f8\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n

\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u4f86\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u660e\u986f\u6539\u8b8a\u901a\u8139\u5f62\u52e2\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u53404\u6708\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u90543.0%\uff0c\u8f032\u67081.9%\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u52d5\u3002\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Eurostat\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u300c\u5feb\u901f\u4f30\u7b97\u300d\uff08flash estimate\uff0c\u5373\u521d\u6b65\u6578\u64da\uff09\u986f\u793a\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6309\u5e74\u98c6\u534715%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u6b63\u8fc5\u901f\u5f71\u97ff\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4ee4\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u66f4\u96e3\u8003\u616e\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u6e1b\u5c11\u62bc\u6ce8\u8ca8\u5e63\u5bec\u9b06\uff08monetary easing\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4e26\u8f49\u5411\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u7acb\u5834\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u63db\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e2d\u300c\u652f\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u300d\uff08paying fixed\uff0c\u5373\u652f\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6536\u53d6\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9810\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\uff09\u3002\u56de\u98672022\u5e74\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u96e3\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u591a\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u6709\u524d\u8eca\u4e4b\u9451\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8139\u73fe\u9810\u6e2c\u65bc2027\u5e74\u521d\u898b\u9802\u7d043.5%\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08inflation protection\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u4fdd\u503c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6216\u6301\u5009\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u300c5\u5e74\u671f\u30015\u5e74\u9060\u671f\u300d\u901a\u8139\u6389\u671f\uff085-year, 5-year forward inflation swap\uff0c\u5373\u53cd\u6620\u672a\u4f86\u67d0\u4e00\u6bb5\u9577\u671f\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5df2\u56e0\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u5347\u81f32.4%\u3002\u9019\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5e36\u4f86\u90e8\u7f72\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u4ee4\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u7dca\u5f35\uff08\u5373\u62db\u8058\u56f0\u96e3\u3001\u5de5\u8cc7\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fb7\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u9ad8\u4f01\u4ea6\u610f\u5473\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u6216\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u53ef\u5229\u7528VSTOXX\u6307\u6578\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options on the VSTOXX index\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u6b50\u6d32\u80a1\u7968\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u61c9\u5c0d\u6b50\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u4ea6\u9700\u7559\u610f\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6703\u5426\u628a\u7d93\u6fdf\u63a8\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u8def\u5f91\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684PMI\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u300c\u5feb\u901f\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\uff08flash PMI manufacturing survey\uff0c\u5373\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u8b80\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u666f\u6c23\uff09\u82e5\u6025\u8dcc\uff0c\u6216\u53cd\u6620\u9700\u6c42\u88ab\u9ad8\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u6291\uff08demand destruction\uff0c\u5373\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u56e0\u6210\u672c\u904e\u9ad8\u800c\u7e2e\u6e1b\uff09\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u6703\u6301\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5efa\u7acb\u4f60\u7684VT Markets\u771f\u5be6\u5e33\u6236<\/a>\u00a0\u4e26\u65bc\u00a0\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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