BNY \u7684 Geoff Yu \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u6b50\uff08Central and Eastern Europe\uff09\u8ca1\u653f\u58d3\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u63a8\u52d5\u5340\u5167\u5916\u532f\uff08FX\uff0c\u5373\u8ca8\u5e63\u532f\u50f9\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\u53ca\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff0c\u5373\u501f\u5165\u4f4e\u606f\u8ca8\u5e63\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u9ad8\u606f\u8cc7\u7522\u8cfa\u53d6\u606f\u5dee\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5340\u5167\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u592e\u884c\u6e96\u5099\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u901a\u8139\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u8f03\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u8139\u885d\u64ca\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u58d3\u529b\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5012\u53f0\u4ee4\u77ed\u671f\u8ca1\u653f\u524d\u666f\u66f4\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002\u5176\u300c\u96d9\u8d64\u5b57\u300d\uff08twin deficits\uff0c\u5373\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ca\u7d93\u5e38\u8cec\u8d64\u5b57\uff09\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5747\u63a5\u8fd1 GDP \u7684 8%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff08real interest rates\uff0c\u5373\u6263\u9664\u901a\u8139\u5f8c\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff09\u504f\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6ce2\u862d\u53ca\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u6536\u652f\u4ea6\u6b63\u8d70\u5411\u63a5\u8fd1 GDP \u7684\u300c\u9ad8\u500b\u4f4d\u6578\u300d\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u5169\u570b\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5e74\u7d93\u5e38\u8cec\u8868\u73fe\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u800c\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u5916\u4f86\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8cc7\uff08FDI\uff0c\u5373\u6d77\u5916\u4f01\u696d\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8cc7\u5efa\u5ee0\u6216\u6536\u8cfc\uff09\u53ca\u7d93\u5e38\u8f49\u79fb\uff08current transfers\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u4ee5\u5546\u54c1\u6216\u670d\u52d9\u4ea4\u63db\u7684\u8de8\u5883\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u5982\u6b50\u76df\u8f49\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u3001\u50d1\u532f\u7b49\uff09\u652f\u6301\u878d\u8cc7\uff1b\u5308\u7259\u5229\u5728\u9078\u8209\u5f8c\u7684\u7d93\u5e38\u8f49\u79fb\u5c24\u5176\u53d7\u5230\u63d0\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n
Yu \u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53d7\u5916\u570d\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5171\u540c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u5340\u5167\u5404\u570b\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8d70\u52e2\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u4e26\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\uff08yield curve\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u671f\u50b5\u606f\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u53ca\u8ca8\u5e63\u6301\u5009\uff08currency holdings\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6301\u6709\u67d0\u7a2e\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5009\u4f4d\uff09\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u5011\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4e2d\u6771\u6b50\u8ca1\u653f\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u4ecd\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e3b\u7dda\u3002\u5340\u5167\u592e\u884c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u9858\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u8abf\u6574\u58d3\u529b\u66f4\u591a\u843d\u5728\u532f\u7387\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u90e8\u7f72\u8fce\u63a5\u5206\u5316\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u52a0\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u5931\u8861\u5e36\u4f86\u6700\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u96d9\u8d64\u5b57\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1 GDP \u7684 8%\uff0c\u6539\u5584\u4e0d\u660e\u986f\uff1b2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u521d\u6b65\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u7d9c\u5408\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u9054 7.8%\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u5217\u4f0a\uff08RON\uff09\u6700\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u592e\u884c\u4e00\u76f4\u52d5\u7528\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\uff08foreign reserves\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5916\u5e63\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u81ea 1 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u5df2\u6e1b\u5c11\u8fd1 30 \u5104\u6b50\u5143\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ba1\u7406\u8dcc\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u5217\u4f0a\uff08EUR\/RON\uff09\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u98a8\u96aa\u62bc\u6ce8\u5217\u4f0a\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4eca\u5e74\u5df2\u7531 8% \u5347\u81f3\u903e 11%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6182\u616e\u5347\u6eab\u3002\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u532f\u50f9\u6025\u5347\u6642\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u9650\u5236\u70ba\u5df2\u4ed8\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76f8\u5c0d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6ce2\u862d\u53ca\u5308\u7259\u5229\u8f03\u7a69\uff0c\u53d7\u5176\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6536\u652f\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6ce2\u862d\u7d93\u5e38\u8cec\u76c8\u9918\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u4fdd\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\uff1b\u8fd1\u671f FDI \u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u70ba\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u7522\u696d\u518d\u5438\u5f15 15 \u5104\u6b50\u5143\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u9019\u4ee4\u6ce2\u862d\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\uff08PLN\uff09\u53ca\u5308\u7259\u5229\u798f\u6797\uff08HUF\uff09\u5728\u76f8\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0b\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ea4\u6613\u5206\u5316\u8f03\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u505a\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u503c\uff08relative value\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u4e00\u7a2e\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u6cbd\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u5dee\u7570\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u900f\u904e\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04\uff08forward contracts\uff0c\u5373\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u4ea4\u6536\uff09\u505a\u591a PLN\/RON \u6216 HUF\/RON\u3002\u6b64\u505a\u6cd5\u53ef\u628a\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u5f31\u9ede\uff0c\u8207\u6b50\u5143\u6216\u7f8e\u5143\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u5206\u958b\u3002\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u8207\u6ce2\u862d 10 \u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u5dee\uff08yield spread\uff0c\u5373\u5169\u8005\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u81ea 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\u5df2\u64f4\u95ca 60 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0c1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u70ba\u5206\u5316\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8b66\u60d5\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u7684\u9ad8\u5b73\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u7576\u5730\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\u98a8\u96aa\u6975\u9ad8\uff1a\u532f\u7387\u8cb6\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5c6c\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\u5e38\u898b\u9677\u9631\u3002\u60c5\u6cc1\u4ee4\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77 2011 \u81f3 2012 \u5e74\u6b50\u6d32\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4e3b\u6b0a\u98a8\u96aa\uff08sovereign risk\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u511f\u50b5\u80fd\u529b\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u5f88\u5feb\u84cb\u904e\u8ffd\u9010\u9ad8\u606f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u53d6\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNY \u7684 Yu \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u6b50\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u5206\u6b67\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u5217\u4f0a\u6210\u5916\u532f\u53ca\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u98a8\u96aa\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6050\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u914d\u7f6e\u9700\u6025\u901f\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\uff1f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46946\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}