BNY \u7684 Geoff Yu \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u5916\u532f\u8207\u80a1\u7968\u73fe\u6642\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u5408\u4f75\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u7e3d\u56de\u5831\uff08total return\uff0c\u5373\u628a\u50f9\u683c\u5347\u8dcc\u52a0\u4e0a\u5229\u606f\uff0f\u80a1\u606f\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u4e00\u4f75\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff09\u300d\u5009\u4f4d\u3002iFlow \u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u5404\u8ca8\u5e63\u4ecd\u7136\u8655\u65bc\u300c\u6de8\u8d85\u984d\u6301\u5009\uff08net overheld\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u9ad8\u65bc\u6b63\u5e38\uff0f\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u5340\u5167\u5404\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff08sovereign bonds\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u884c\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u540c\u6a23\u5c6c\u8d85\u984d\u6301\u5009\u3002\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u50b5\u5238\u5009\u4f4d\u6b63\u958b\u59cb\u56de\u8f49\uff08reverse\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u5009\uff0f\u5e73\u5009\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5404\u570b\u6b65\u4f10\u4e0d\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5e02\u5834\u628a\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf\u7d0d\u5165\u50f9\u683c\uff08price in\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u9810\u5148\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u532f\u50f9\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u5c0d\u5916\u532f\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08FX hedging\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u6e1b\u5c11\u532f\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u640d\u76ca\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9019\u767c\u751f\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u672c\u5468\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c Banxico \u5c07\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bp\uff0cbasis point\uff0c\u5373 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff1b25bp=0.25 \u5398\uff09\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u800c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u5238\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u7136\u7a69\u5065\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u8a8d\u70ba Banxico \u6b63\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u504f\u5411\u523a\u6fc0\u8207\u589e\u9577\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u6307\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7de9\u885d\uff08real rate buffer\uff0c\u5373\u540d\u7fa9\u5229\u7387\u6263\u9664\u901a\u8139\u5f8c\u7684\u300c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u300d\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u57ab\uff0f\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u7dad\u6301\u6b63\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff08positive real rates\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7d04 100 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n
Yu \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u300c\u570b\u5225\u98a8\u96aa\uff08country-specific risk\uff0c\u5373\u91dd\u5c0d\u55ae\u4e00\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0f\u8cbf\u6613\uff0f\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u300d\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u300c\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff08less dovish\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u518d\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u5bec\u9b06\uff09\u300d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5feb\u50b3\u5c0e\uff08spillover\uff0c\u5373\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u66f4\u5feb\u5f71\u97ff\u672c\u5730\u5e02\u5834\uff09\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u8ac7\u5224\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u8b8a\u6578\u3002\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u5e02\u5834\u7e7c\u7e8c\u805a\u7126\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u5c0d\u6c96\u9700\u6c42\u6216\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u800c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\uff08fixed income\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u5229\u606f\u6536\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5982\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u5177\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff08fiscal impulse\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u900f\u904e\u958b\u652f\uff0f\u7a05\u6536\u6539\u8b8a\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u984d\u5916\u63a8\u52d5\uff09\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u8ca8\u5e63\u8207\u80a1\u7968\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u64e0\u8feb\u4ea4\u6613\uff08crowded trade\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u91d1\u540c\u5411\u62bc\u6ce8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff09\u300d\uff0c\u5340\u5167\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8ca8\u5e63\u4ecd\u88ab\u300c\u8d85\u914d\uff0f\u8d85\u6301\u6709\u300d\u3002\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u8868\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u9577\u5009\uff08long positions\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u5347\u4e26\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5009\u4f4d\uff09\u958b\u59cb\u9b06\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b65\u4f10\u4e0d\u4e00\u3002\u7576\u524d\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u60c5\u7dd2\u9006\u8f49\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u6e67\u5411\u51fa\u53e3\uff08rush for the exit\uff0c\u5373\u96c6\u9ad4\u6025\u65bc\u6e1b\u5009\u9020\u6210\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u632b\uff09\u300d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u70ba\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u606f\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f Banxico \u672c\u5468\u8b70\u606f\u5c07\u628a\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 10.75%\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u65e8\u5728\u523a\u6fc0\u589e\u9577\uff1b\u96a8\u8457 4 \u6708\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u81f3 4.5%\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u958b\u59cb\u70ba\u62ab\u7d22\u8d70\u5f31\u4f5c\u9632\u5b88\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5916\u8cc7\u5c0d\u8a72\u570b\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4ecd\u7136\u7a69\u56fa\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1 750 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9019\u5f62\u6210\u5206\u6b67\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u770b\u597d\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u4f46\u64d4\u5fc3\u62ab\u7d22\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u4e0b\u8abf\u53bb\u5e74\u4ee4\u8ca8\u5e63\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u6709\u610f\u6536\u7a84\u5229\u7387\u7de9\u885d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u5bb9\u8a31\u8ca8\u5e63\u8f03\u5f31\u4ee5\u652f\u6490\u672c\u5730\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u503c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u532f\u7387\uff0f\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u300c\u6a19\u7684\u300d\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u542b\u610f\u662f\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u5c0d\u62ab\u7d22\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 USD\/MXN \u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u8ce3\u51fa\u62ab\u7d22\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u9632\u7bc4\u62ab\u7d22\u8cb6\u503c\uff09\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04\uff08forward contracts\uff0c\u5373\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u4ea4\u6536\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u9396\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\uff09\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8b77\u73fe\u6709\u5009\u4f4d\u514d\u53d7\u8cb6\u503c\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u62ab\u7d22\uff08super peso\uff0c\u5373\u62ab\u7d22\u9577\u671f\u504f\u5f37\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff09\u300d\u8d70\u52e2\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u6eab\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7dca\u8feb\u611f\u4ea6\u53d7\u7f8e\u570b\u98a8\u96aa\u63a8\u9ad8\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u628a\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u7684\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3\u50c5\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\u69cb\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5373\u5c07\u5c55\u958b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u8ac7\u5224\uff0c\u62ab\u7d22\u74b0\u5883\u66f4\u8da8\u8907\u96dc\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ea6\u53cd\u6620\u65bc\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u62ab\u7d22 3 \u500b\u6708\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u300d\u7531\u5e74\u521d\u7d04 10% \u5347\u81f3\u903e 12.5%\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u8a2d\u8a08\u5728\u532f\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u5728\u4ecd\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u50b5\u606f\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u628a\u8ca8\u5e63\u98a8\u96aa\u7368\u7acb\u8655\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNY\u7d10\u7d04\u6885\u9686\u9280\u884c\u4f59\u6c0f\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7e3d\u56de\u5831\u4ea4\u6613\u904e\u5ea6\u64e0\u64c1\uff0c\u96a8\u6642\u9006\u8f49\uff1b\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u62ab\u7d22\u5c0d\u6c96\u9700\u6c42\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u98a8\u5411\u6709\u8b8a\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9808\u8b66\u60d5\u6ce2\u52d5\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46879\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}