{"id":46773,"date":"2026-05-06T02:19:37","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46773\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T02:19:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:19:37","slug":"%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af%e5%be%8c%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e5%85%83%e5%85%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e5%8d%870-25%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%a80-7150%e6%94%af%e6%8c%81%e5%ae%88%e7%a9%a9%e5%be%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/46773\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u53470.25%\uff0c\u57280.7150\u652f\u6301\u5b88\u7a69\u5f8c\u65bc0.7185\u9644\u8fd1\u4f01\u7a69"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08AUD\/USD\uff09\u5468\u4e8c\u4e0a\u53470.25%\uff0c\u81f3\u7d040.7185\u3002\u6b50\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u66fe\u57280.7150\u9644\u8fd1\u5b88\u7a69\u652f\u6301\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u4ea4\u6295\u7dad\u6301\u7a84\u5e45\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u5c0f\u578bK\u7dda\uff08\u881f\u71ed\u5716\uff1a\u4ee5\u300c\u958b\u5e02\u3001\u6536\u5e02\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u3001\u6700\u4f4e\u300d\u986f\u793a\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u53cd\u6620\u6fb3\u6d32\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff09\u8b70\u606f\u5f8c\u65b9\u5411\u611f\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n

RBA\u5468\u4e8c\u5c07\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08cash rate\uff1a\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u53ca\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\uff09\u4e0a\u8abf25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c100\u500b\u57fa\u9ede=1\u5398\uff09\uff0c\u75314.10%\u5347\u81f34.35%\u3002\u8072\u660e\u63d0\u5230\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u6301\u7e8c\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u9577\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u80fd\u58d3\u529b\u518d\u73fe\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5f37\u8abf\u5f80\u5f8c\u52a0\u606f\u8207\u5426\u5c07\u300c\u8996\u4e4e\u6578\u64da\u300d\uff08data-dependent\uff1a\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6700\u65b0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u6578\u64da\u8207\u5916\u90e8\u9700\u6c42<\/h3>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32\u8cbf\u6613\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u8cbf\u6613\u6578\u64da\u9810\u8a08\u5468\u672b\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u662f\u89c0\u5bdf\u5916\u90e8\u9700\u6c42\uff08external demand\uff1a\u6d77\u5916\u5c0d\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6279\u65e2\u5b9a\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u56e0\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1a\u4e2d\u6771\u4e3b\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u8981\u9053\uff09\u5c01\u9396\u8e0f\u5165\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u8ac7\u5224\u4ecd\u672a\u63d0\u51fa\u505c\u706b\u6642\u9593\u8868\u3002\u7f8e\u570bISM\u670d\u52d9\u696dPMI\uff08\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff1a\u9ad8\u65bc50\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\uff09\u583153.6\uff1bJOLTS\u8077\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u8077\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u53ca\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6d41\u52d5\u8abf\u67e5\uff09\u70ba687\u842c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u5468\u4e94\u7f8e\u570b\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff1a\u4e0d\u542b\u8fb2\u696d\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u70ba6\u842c\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u70ba17.8\u842c\u300215\u5206\u9418\u5716\u4e0a\uff0cAUD\/USD\u58310.7184\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u7576\u65e5\u958b\u5e020.7169\uff1b\u96a8\u6a5fRSI\uff08Stochastic RSI\uff1a\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u52d5\u80fd\u3001\u5224\u65b7\u8d85\u8cb7\u8d85\u8ce3\uff09\u70ba9.49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7dda\u5716\u4e0a\uff0cAUD\/USD\u58310.7184\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc50\u65e5EMA\uff08\u6307\u6578\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff1a\u8f03\u91cd\u8996\u8fd1\u671f\u50f9\u683c\uff090.7066\u53ca200\u65e5EMA 0.6823\u3002\u65e5\u7dda\u96a8\u6a5fRSI\u63a5\u8fd150.8\u3002<\/p>\n

2025\u5e74\u672b\u6280\u8853\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u80cc\u666f<\/h3>\n

\u56de\u98672025\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u7576\u6642RBA\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f34.35%\uff0c\u4ee4AUD\/USD\u6574\u9ad4\u504f\u5f37\u3002\u532f\u50f9\u7d04\u57280.7185\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u7a69\u5b88\u65bc\u4e3b\u8981\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u57fa\u790e\u4ecd\u5728\u3002\u7576\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u504f\u5411\u89c0\u671b\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u78ba\u8a8d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u5f8c\u6fb3\u6d32\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\uff08policy divergence\uff1a\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u532f\u50f9\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6fb3\u6d32\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u9ad8\u300d\uff08sticky\uff1a\u4e0d\u6613\u56de\u843d\uff09\uff0c2026\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff09\u70ba3.8%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bcRBA\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u3002RBA\u5176\u5f8c\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u4ee4\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5347\u81f34.85%\uff1b\u672c\u5730\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u504f\u7dca\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u9700\u6c42\u9ad8\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u50c54.1%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u56e0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u4eca\u5e74\u8f03\u65e9\u958b\u59cb\u6eab\u548c\u6e1b\u606f\uff08shallow cutting cycle\uff1a\u6e1b\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5927\u3001\u6b65\u4f10\u8f03\u6162\uff09\uff0c\u65e9\u57282025\u5e74\u672b\u504f\u8edf\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u66f4\u660e\u986f\uff0c2026\u5e744\u6708\u6700\u65b0\u8b80\u6578\u70ba2.5%\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6709\u7a7a\u9593\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6fb3\u5143\u5229\u7387\u76f8\u5c0d\u512a\u52e2\u64f4\u5927\uff08interest rate differential\uff1a\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u532f\u50f9\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u52d5\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u8da8\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u63a7\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\u4e4b\u9918\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0a\u884c\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165AUD\/USD\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1a\u770b\u597d\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u725b\u5e02\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684call\u3001\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684call\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u30022009\u81f32011\u5e74\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u76f8\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1aRBA\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3001\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u504f\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\uff08dovish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5AUD\/USD\u5347\u81f3\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u5167\uff0c\u9700\u7559\u610f\u6fb3\u6d32\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efd\u6708\u5ea6CPI\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u975e\u8fb2\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u89c0\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u6539\u8b8a\u73fe\u6709\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u82e5\u6fb3\u6d32\u901a\u8139\u610f\u5916\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u6216\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u975e\u5e38\u5f37\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u885d\u64ca\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u90e8\u7f72\u4ea4\u6613\u6642\u628a\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u653e\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u95dc\u9375\u6578\u64da\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u61c9\u5c0d\u6f5b\u5728\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u6380\u52d5\u532f\u5e02\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u5373\u53470.25%\uff1b\u57280.7150\u652f\u6301\u5b88\u7a69\u5f8c\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u73fe\u65bc0.7185\u9644\u8fd1\u4f01\u7a69\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u80fd\u5426\u518d\u7834\u95dc\u6210\u7126\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46773\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}