\u9031\u4e8c\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\uff0cNZD\/USD \u65bc0.5865\u20130.5860\u9644\u8fd1\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e09\u65e5\u53d7\u6cbd\u58d3\u3002\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u81ea\u5169\u9031\u9ad8\u4f4d0.5925\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u8a72\u4f4d\u540c\u6642\u5c6c\u6a6b\u884c\u963b\u529b\uff08\u5373\u904e\u53bb\u591a\u6b21\u89f8\u53ca\u4f46\u672a\u80fd\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u963f\u806f\u914b\uff08UAE\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u9632\u7a7a\u7cfb\u7d71\u6514\u622a\u4f86\u81ea\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u5c0e\u5f48\u8972\u64ca\u53ca\u4f86\u8972\u7121\u4eba\u6a5f\u3002\u7f8e\u4f0a\u8ac7\u5224\u9032\u5c55\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u907f\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\uff08risk concerns\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u5c11\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u8f49\u6295\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u4f0a\u5c0d\u5cd9\u63a8\u9ad8\u9694\u591c\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Crude Oil\uff0c\u5373\u672a\u7d93\u63d0\u7149\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\uff09\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u52a0\u5287\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\uff08inflation\uff0c\u5373\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u6182\u616e\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u66f4\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\uff08US Treasury yields\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f01\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u592e\u884c\uff08Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ\uff09\u5c07\u4fdd\u6301\u5be9\u614e\uff0c\u6216\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u56de\u52302%\u76ee\u6a19\u4e2d\u9ede\u3002\u9019\u6216\u53ef\u70ba\u7d10\u5143\uff08NZD\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e26\u9650\u5236\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6280\u8853\u8d70\u52e2\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u591a\u6b21\u57280.5920\u20130.5925\u5340\u9593\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u672a\u80fd\u4f01\u7a69200\u65e5\u7c21\u55ae\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff08200-day SMA\uff0c\u5373\u904e\u53bb200\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u6536\u5e02\u50f9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u5224\u65b7\u4e2d\u9577\u7dda\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u4ecd\u5b9c\u89c0\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u8ddf\u9032\u6cbd\u552e\u300d\uff08follow-through selling\uff0c\u5373\u8dcc\u52e2\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e26\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u8ce3\u76e4\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570bISM\u670d\u52d9\u696dPMI\uff08\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u666f\u6c23\uff09\u3001JOLTS\u8077\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u3001\u65b0\u5c4b\u92b7\u552e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u5373\u5236\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u6210\u54e1\u8b1b\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u986f\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\uff08policy divergence\uff0c\u5373\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u6216\u53d6\u614b\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\u3002\u4e0a\u5b63GDP\uff08\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff09\u50c5\u589e0.2%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u8a08\u5165RBNZ\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u7d10\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u8f03\u4f4e\u606f\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u9ad8\u606f\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165NZD\/USD\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u6216\u5230\u671f\u6642\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u9031\u4e0b\u8a660.5750\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u4f4e\u3002\u9019\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u9650\u5236\u5728\u5df2\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u65bc\u5730\u7de3\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u63a8\u9ad8\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u6210\u672c\u6216\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u8f03\u5177\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u8a8d\u6cbd\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08bear put spread\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u6cbd\u3001\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb70.5800 put\u4e26\u540c\u6642\u6cbd0.5650 put\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e\u521d\u59cb\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728\u532f\u50f9\u5982\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u4ecd\u5177\u76c8\u5229\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n
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