{"id":46644,"date":"2026-05-04T21:33:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46644\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T21:33:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:33:33","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e5%b1%80%e5%b0%87%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8b%95%e8%87%b39%e6%9c%88%ef%bc%8c%e9%97%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/46644\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u81f39\u6708\uff0c\u95dc\u6ce8\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u53ca\u901a\u8139\u8d70\u52e2"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6 Oscar Munoz \u53ca Eli Nir \u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\uff08Fed\uff09\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u4e26\u8ffd\u8e64\u901a\u8139\u8d70\u52e2\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u5c07\u628a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u76f4\u81f3 9 \u6708\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u5373\u8ca0\u8cac\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u5167\u90e8\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u6216\u4ee4\u6e1b\u606f\u5ef6\u5f8c\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Fed funds rate\uff0c\u5373\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u5728\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u65bc\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f91\u672a\u4f5c\u660e\u78ba\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u63d0\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u900f\u904e\u63aa\u8fad\u5f15\u5c0e\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6709\u671b\u8f49\u5411\u300c\u96d9\u5411\u300d\u7acb\u5834\uff08two-sided stance\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u627f\u8a8d\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\u7686\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u53ea\u504f\u5411\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u6307\u51fa\uff0c4 \u6708\u6709\u4e09\u540d\u5730\u5340\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577\u6295\u53cd\u5c0d\u7968\u4e26\u652f\u6301\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u505a\u6cd5\u6216\u5148\u7531\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u8072\u660e\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u5c55\u671b\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c 2026 \u5e74\u5171\u6e1b\u606f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0cbp\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc 2027 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u518d\u6e1b 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u63d0\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u8def\u5f91\uff1a9 \u6708\u53ca 12 \u6708\u5404\u6e1b 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08\u5408\u5171 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc 2027 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u518d\u6e1b 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u4ee4\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3 3.00%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u8868\u793a\uff0c9 \u6708\u82e5\u8981\u91cd\u555f\u5bec\u9b06\uff08easing\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u653e\u9b06\u91d1\u878d\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\uff0c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u901a\u8139\u56de\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\uff08normalisation\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u8f03\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u5f71\u97ff\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u5c07\u7559\u610f\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577 John Williams \u7684\u516c\u958b\u8b1b\u8a71\uff0c\u5c0b\u627e\u662f\u5426\u63d0\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u8abf\u6574\u8072\u660e\u63aa\u8fad\u3002<\/p>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u885d\u7a81\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u6599\u6700\u5c11\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u81f3 9 \u6708\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u540c\u6642\u6d88\u5316\u6700\u65b0 4 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\uff09\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5373\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9805\u76ee\uff09\u4ecd\u9054 3.8%\uff0c\u8f03\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u96e3\u56de\u843d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9700\u91cd\u65b0\u5be9\u8996\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eca\u590f\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5be9\u614e\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u58d3\u529b\u672a\u6e1b\uff0c\u4ee4\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u81ea 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u521d\u6b21\u885d\u64ca\u4ee5\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u9ad8\u4f01\u65bc\u6bcf\u6876 105 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u96e3\u4f5c\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u6368\u3002\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\u66fe\u65bc 2022 \u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f15\u767c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u592e\u884c\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u53ca\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u555f\u793a<\/h3>\n

\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5c55\u671b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u590f\u5b63\u6708\u4efd SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures\uff1bSOFR \u70ba\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u56de\u8cfc\u4f5c\u62b5\u62bc\u7684\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\uff09\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u5411\u904e\u5ea6\u770b\u597d\u6e1b\u606f\uff08too dovish\uff0c\u5373\u4f4e\u4f30\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u884c\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u3002\u5982\u8981\u90e8\u7f72\u300c\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u6cbd\u51fa 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u4fee\u6b63\u5c0d\u904e\u65e9\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u5167\u90e8\u5206\u6b67\u52a0\u6df1\u4ea6\u589e\u6dfb\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff1a2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u51fa\u73fe\u4e09\u7968\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u672a\u898b\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u5e45\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6b0a\uff08straddle\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u53ca\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u5c07\u51fa\u73fe\u8f03\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u653f\u7b56\u8072\u660e\u6216\u6709\u610f\u5916\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u82e5\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u6027\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u4ee4\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\uff08yield curve\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u671f\u50b5\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u6392\u5217\uff09\u8da8\u65bc\u5e73\u5766\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u77ed\u606f\u53d7\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u727d\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u8f03\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u589e\u9577\u6182\u616e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u66f2\u7dda\u8da8\u5e73\u4ea4\u6613\uff08yield curve flattening trades\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u8207\u9577\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u6536\u7a84\uff09\uff0c\u82e5 2 \u5e74\u671f\u8207 10 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u606f\u5dee\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u90e8\u7f72\u6709\u671b\u53d7\u60e0\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9700\u7559\u610f\u672c\u5468\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u6216\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f Williams \u7684\u767c\u8a00\uff0c\u6216\u6210\u70ba\u89f8\u767c\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6216\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u81f39\u6708\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7dca\u76ef\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5347\u6eab\u8207\u901a\u8139\u53bb\u5411\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u6dfb\u8b8a\u6578\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9808\u9632\u6ce2\u52d5\u518d\u64f4\u5927\u3001\u8cc7\u7522\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46644\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}