{"id":46494,"date":"2026-05-01T18:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T18:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46494\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T18:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T18:00:14","slug":"%e5%8d%a1%e4%bb%80%e5%8d%a1%e9%87%8c%e5%9b%a0%e9%9c%8d%e7%88%be%e6%9c%a8%e8%8c%b2%e7%9b%b8%e9%97%9c%e4%b8%8d%e7%a2%ba%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e6%8a%95%e5%8f%8d%e5%b0%8d%e7%a5%a8%ef%bc%8c%e4%bf%83%e8%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/46494\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u91cc\u56e0\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u76f8\u95dc\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u6295\u53cd\u5c0d\u7968\uff0c\u4fc3\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8072\u660e\u63d0\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u9023\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577\u5c3c\u723e\u30fb\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u91cc\uff08Neel Kashkari\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u57284\u6708\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u6295\u4e0b\u53cd\u5c0d\u7968\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u300c\u54bd\u5589\u8981\u9053\u300d\uff09\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8072\u660e\u61c9\u6307\u51fa\u52a0\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u51fa\u73fe\u8db3\u5920\u5927\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u6216\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u806f\u5132\u5c402%\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u300c\u9632\u7dda\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

Policy Dissent And Inflation Risks<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u6d77\u5cfd\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5c01\u9396\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4e26\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u4f5c\u51fa\u5f37\u786c\u56de\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u53c8\u7a31\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5f88\u5feb\u91cd\u958b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u5229\u7387\u8981\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6230\u4e8b\u7206\u767c\u524d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u652f\u6301\u4eca\u5e74\u518d\u6e1b\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff1b\u4f46\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba3\u6708\u5f62\u52e2\u8b8a\u5316\u672a\u8db3\u4ee5\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u8072\u660e\u9700\u8981\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8a00\u8ad6\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u622a\u81f3\u767c\u7a3f\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08USD Index\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u8dcc0.2%\uff0c\u583197.90\u3002<\/p>\n

Market Implications And Trade Positioning<\/h3>\n

\u6709\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u91cd\u8981\u5b98\u54e1\u53cd\u5c0d\u4e26\u4e3b\u5f35\u627f\u8a8d\u52a0\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u5f8c\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u6253\u64ca\u901a\u8139\u3001\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u606f\uff09\u7684\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u8207\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5468\u908a\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8a08\u5165\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u606f\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u60c5\u666f\u904e\u53bb\u8f03\u5c11\u88ab\u8a8d\u771f\u770b\u5f85\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\uff1a\u6bcf\u65e5\u7d042,100\u842c\u6876\u539f\u6cb9\u7d93\u6d77\u5cfd\u904b\u8f38\uff0c\u4f54\u5168\u7403\u6d88\u8017\u903e\u5169\u6210\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u5411\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\uff1bCBOE\u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08OVX\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u539f\u6cb9\u672a\u4f86\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u8fd1\u4e00\u5468\u4e0a\u5347\u903e30%\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08crude futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u672a\u4f86\u4ea4\u6536\u50f9\u8cb7\u8ce3\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u76f8\u95dcETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff1a\u7528\u8f03\u5c11\u6210\u672c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u6f5b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u4ea6\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6309\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u57282.8%\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cSOFR\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u4ee5SOFR\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u53cd\u6620\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7d0440%\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u62bc\u6ce8\u73fe\u6642\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u632b\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u6cbd\u51fa\uff08short\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u8f03\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5ETF\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5c0d\u6c96\u653f\u7b56\u91cd\u65b0\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u518d\u5b9a\u50f9\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u5e02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u52a0\u4e0a\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u70ba\u5927\u5e02\u5e36\u4f86\u660e\u986f\u963b\u529b\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08protective puts\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\u70ba\u6301\u5009\u300c\u8cb7\u4fdd\u96aa\u300d\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5411\u907f\u96aa\uff08risk aversion\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u66f4\u6015\u98a8\u96aa\u3001\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u6301\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u521d\u6bb5\u8f49\u5f31\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5408\u5e38\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u300c\u6eef\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff0c\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u540c\u6642\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\u7684\u5373\u6642\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u653f\u7b56\u5df2\u8f49\u5411\u3002\u82e5\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u56e0\u61c9\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u800c\u8a00\u8ad6\u8f49\u8da8\u5f37\u786c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u6025\u901f\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money calls\uff0c\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff1b\u6210\u672c\u4e00\u822c\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u50f9\u683c\u660e\u986f\u4e0a\u5347\u624d\u6703\u7372\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u8f03\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56de\u9867\u65e9\u65bc2025\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e00\u5ea6\u5ffd\u8996\u670d\u52d9\u901a\u8139\uff08services inflation\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u5f15\u767c\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u60c5\u6cc1\u76f8\u4f3c\uff1a\u521d\u6b65\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\u6216\u4f4e\u4f30\u6b63\u5728\u7d2f\u7a4d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5404\u985e\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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