\u745e\u58eb ZEW \u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c4 \u6708\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u671f\u5347\u81f3 -30.3\uff0c\u4e0a\u6b21\u70ba -35\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u65b0\u745e\u58eb ZEW \u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c4 \u6708\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u671f\u6539\u5584\u81f3 -30.3\uff0c\u8f03\u4e0a\u6b21\u7684 -35 \u660e\u986f\u56de\u5347\u3002ZEW \u8abf\u67e5\u662f\u4ee5\u554f\u5377\u65b9\u5f0f\u5411\u5e02\u5834\u53ca\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u54e1\u6536\u96c6\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u300c\u60c5\u7dd2\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4e3b\u89c0\u9810\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u6578\u503c\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u504f\u60b2\u89c0\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u8d70\u52e2\u8f49\u597d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u60c5\u7dd2\u6216\u6b63\u5728\u6e1b\u9000\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u8996\u70ba\u745e\u58eb\u8cc7\u7522\u53ef\u80fd\u958b\u59cb\u300c\u898b\u5e95\u300d\uff08\u8dcc\u52e2\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u9010\u6b65\u7a69\u5b9a\uff09\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c31\u745e\u58eb\u6cd5\u90ce\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u7d44\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u8f15\u745e\u58eb\u570b\u5bb6\u9280\u884c\uff08SNB\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u592e\u884c\uff09\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u770b\u5230\u6cd5\u90ce\u514c\u6b50\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u745e\u90ce\uff08EUR\/CHF\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868 1 \u6b50\u5143\u53ef\u514c\u63db\u7684\u745e\u90ce\u6578\u91cf\uff09\u6700\u8fd1\u7d04\u5728 0.9850 \u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u7576\u6642 SNB \u63a1\u53d6\u8f03\u300c\u504f\u9d3f\u300d\u7acb\u5834\uff08\u5373\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u653e\u5bec\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u66f4\u9858\u610f\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u6cbd\u51fa EUR\/CHF \u7684\u300c\u50f9\u5916\u300d\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u5373\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u3001\u9700\u8981\u532f\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u7d93\u6fdf\u60b2\u89c0\u60c5\u7dd2\u6e1b\u9000\u6703\u9650\u5236\u6cd5\u90ce\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8f49\u5f31\uff08\u5373 EUR\/CHF \u4e0a\u5347\u7a7a\u9593\u53d7\u9650\uff09\u3002\u671f\u6b0a\u662f\u4ee5\u5c0f\u984d\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff1b\u6cbd\u51fa\u671f\u6b0a\u5247\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u627f\u64d4\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9019\u500b\u7565\u70ba\u6539\u5584\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u70ba\u745e\u58eb\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6578\uff08SMI\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u4e3b\u8981\u85cd\u7c4c\u80a1\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5e36\u4f86\u4e00\u5b9a\u652f\u6301\uff1bSMI \u4eca\u5e74\u8868\u73fe\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u6b50\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u6211\u5011\u7559\u610f\u5230 SMI \u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u6700\u8fd1\u56de\u843d\u81f3 3 \u500b\u6708\u4f4e\u4f4d\u7d04 14%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6212\u5fc3\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u81ea\u6eff\u3002\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u63a7\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 SMI \u7684\u300c\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u300d\u725b\u5e02\u50f9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\uff08long-dated call spreads\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4e26\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u53ef\u7372\u5229\u7a7a\u9593\u9396\u5b9a\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff09\uff0c\u90e8\u7f72\u6eab\u548c\u5fa9\u7526\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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