EUR\/USD \u5468\u4e09\u4e9e\u6d32\u65e9\u6bb5\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u7d04 1.1715\uff0c\u7f8e\u532f\u5728\u4e2d\u6771\u53ef\u80fd\u505c\u706b\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0b\u7372\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u805a\u7126\u5468\u4e09\u7a0d\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Fed\uff0c\u4ea6\u7a31\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u8b70\u606f\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u8981\u6c42\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u8ac7\u5224\u7d50\u675f\u5169\u500b\u6708\u6230\u4e8b\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u89e3\u9664\u5c0d\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u6ce2\u65af\u7063\u8207\u5916\u6d77\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u822a\u9053\uff09\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u5c01\u9396\u3002CNN \u5831\u9053\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u8abf\u505c\u65b9\u9810\u671f\u4f0a\u6717\u5c07\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5929\u63d0\u4ea4\u4fee\u8a02\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f0a\u6717\u7a31\u53ea\u8981\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c01\u9396\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u958b\u653e\u822a\u9053\u3002\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728 4 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u65bc 3.50% \u81f3 3.75%\uff08\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5340\u9593\uff09\uff0c\u5c6c\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u6703\u7559\u610f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u8a18\u8005\u6703\uff0c\u5224\u65b7\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u5f8c\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u5468\u56db\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u8b70\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u671f\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\u7684\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff08\u5373\u8a9e\u6c23\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u6253\u64ca\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u65bc 6 \u6708\u6216 7 \u6708\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u9810\u6e2c 6 \u6708\u53ca 9 \u6708\u5404\u52a0 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u56de\u5347\u81f3 2.50%\u3002<\/p>\n
2022 \u5e74\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u4f54\u5916\u532f\uff08FX\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u8ca8\u5e63\u514c\u63db\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u7d04 31%\uff0c\u6bcf\u65e5\u6210\u4ea4\u903e 2.2 \u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002EUR\/USD \u7d04\u4f54\u5916\u532f\u6210\u4ea4 30%\uff1bEUR\/JPY 4%\u3001EUR\/GBP 3%\u3001EUR\/AUD 2%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe 2025 \u5e74\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u5f71\u5b50\uff1a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u63a8\u52d5\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u6b50\u5143\u69cb\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u3002EUR\/USD \u76ee\u524d\u5728 1.05 \u9644\u8fd1\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u518d\u8d77\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u907f\u96aa\uff08safe-haven\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u50be\u5411\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u518d\u6b21\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u984c\u3002\u672c\u5468\u592e\u884c\u8b70\u606f\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u95dc\u9375\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.00% \u81f3 4.25%\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5340\u9593\uff09\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08core CPI\uff1b\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u790e\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u4e0a\u5b63\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc 3%\uff0c\u4ee4\u77ed\u671f\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u5ef6\u5f8c\u3002\u6b64\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\u6709\u5229\u7f8e\u5143\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u97cc\u6027\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff1b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u589e\u9577\u5831 2.1%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b50\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u9810\u671f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.00%\uff0c\u4f46\u56f0\u96e3\u5728\u65bc\uff1a\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e4f\u529b\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5fb7\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff1b\u4ee5\u4f01\u696d\u8abf\u67e5\u53cd\u6620\u666f\u6c23\uff0c50 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u7e2e\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u56db\u500b\u6708\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4ee4\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u653f\u7b56\u8f03\u96e3\u5408\u7406\u5316\u3002\u7f8e\u6b50\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u8981\u6301\u7e8c\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0d\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08derivatives\uff1b\u50f9\u503c\u8ddf\u96a8\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08owning volatility\uff1b\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u5411\u5347\u8dcc\uff09\u6216\u662f\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5728 EUR\/USD \u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff1b\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u300c\u8cb7\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08long straddle\uff1b\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u770b\u6f32\u8207\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u300c\u8cb7\u5165\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08long strangle\uff1b\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u770b\u6f32\u53ca\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u770b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u8f03\u5927\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u65b9\u5411\u5747\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5229\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1b\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f3 8.2%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08realized volatility\uff1b\u4e8b\u5f8c\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u771f\u5be6\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u82e5\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u65b9\u5411\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u963b\u529b\u8f03\u5c0f\u7684\u8def\u5f91\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u6b50\u5143\u504f\u5f31\u3002\u5229\u7387\u5dee\uff08interest rate differential\uff1b\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u6216\u50b5\u606f\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5169\u5e74\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u8f03\u5fb7\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff08bunds\uff1b\u5fb7\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u9ad8\u903e 120 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u505a\u7a7a EUR\/USD \u6709\u6b63\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u76ca\uff08positive carry\uff1b\u6301\u5009\u53ef\u8cfa\u53d6\u5229\u606f\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u82e5\u5168\u7403\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u610f\u5916\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u6025\u901f\u53cd\u5f48\uff08relief rally\uff1b\u58de\u6d88\u606f\u6d88\u9000\u5f8c\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4efb\u4f55\u505a\u7a7a\u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff1b\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u9060\u671f\uff08forwards\uff1b\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u985e\u4f3c\u3001\u4f46\u591a\u70ba\u5834\u5916\u8a02\u88fd\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u5009\u4f4d\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u56b4\u683c\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n
\u958b\u7acb VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u6236\u53e3<\/a>\u00a0\u4e26\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u4e2d\u6771\u505c\u706b\u4ecd\u5b58\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u907f\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u5347\u6eab\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\u9700\u6c42\uff1b\u4e9e\u6d32\u65e9\u6bb5\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u56de\u5410\uff0c\u56de\u843d\u81f31.1700\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u805a\u7126\u5730\u7de3\u98a8\u96aa\u5f8c\u7e8c\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46197\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}