{"id":45919,"date":"2026-04-24T23:26:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T23:26:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45919\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T23:26:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T23:26:04","slug":"%e9%87%8e%e6%9d%91%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e8%8b%b1%e5%80%ab%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e6%96%bc3-75%ef%bc%8c%e5%84%98%e7%ae%a1%e6%86%82%e6%85%ae%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/45919\/","title":{"rendered":"\u91ce\u6751\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.75%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6182\u616e\u80fd\u6e90\u554f\u984c\uff1bPill \u7368\u81ea\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7d50\u679c8\u6bd41"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u91ce\u6751\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\uff08\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u5728\u4e0b\u5468\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u8a02\u7acb\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c07\u628a\u9280\u884c\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u57283.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u91ce\u6751\u4f30\u8a08\u6295\u7968\u7d50\u679c\u70ba8\u7968\u8d0a\u6210\u7dad\u6301\u30011\u7968\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dHuw Pill\u5c07\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u5b9a\u53ca\u6700\u65b0\u9810\u6e2c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u5468\u56db\u4e2d\u5348\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u91ce\u6751\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6703\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u540c\u6642\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7565\u70ba\u8f49\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

Nomura View On The Upcoming Decision<\/h3>\n

\u91ce\u6751\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u76f4\u81f32027\u5e74\u5e95\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u4ea6\u6307\u51fa\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u4e0d\u5e73\u5747\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u8f03\u5f8c\u671f\u5247\u5b58\u5728\u6e1b\u606f\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u5e74\u5167\u52a0\u606f\u8d85\u904e\u5169\u6b21\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5c314\u670830\u65e5\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6697\u793a\u52a0\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u67092\u81f33\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bp\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u55ae\u4f4d\uff1b1bp\u7b49\u65bc0.01\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\u88fd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u95b1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u96a8\u8457\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u4e0b\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u81e8\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u5176\u5c07\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u73fe\u6c34\u5e734.25%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u518d\u5ea6\u53cd\u6620\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7dca\uff08\u5373\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u5be6\u73fe\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u8207\u592e\u884c\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u884c\u52d5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u843d\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

Trading Implications For Rates Volatility<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u5011\u57282025\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u66fe\u898b\u904e\u76f8\u8fd1\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u7576\u6642\u9280\u884c\u5229\u7387\u70ba3.75%\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u6620\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u6216\u591a\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002MPC\u7576\u6642\u7dad\u6301\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u767c\u51fa\u660e\u78ba\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4e0d\u9858\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u5f31\u4e0b\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8a72\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u8207\u8f03\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u51fa\u73fe\u5206\u6b67\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u6642\u6578\u64da\u652f\u6301\u7e7c\u7e8c\u66ab\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u82f1\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08ONS\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u7d71\u8a08\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u8a08\u5165\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff09\u56de\u843d\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u9805\u76ee\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff09\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u589e\u9577\u50c50.2%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u7d93\u6fdf\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u66f4\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff08\u5373\u5229\u7387\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u878d\u8cc7\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u4f46\u4ecd\u504f\u9ecf\u3001\u589e\u9577\u505c\u6eef\u300d\u7684\u7d44\u5408\u4ee4MPC\u8655\u5883\u70ba\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u610f\u5473\u5728\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u8ce3\u51fa\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u5e45\u6703\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u6216\u8f03\u70ba\u5408\u9069\u3002\u82e5\u592e\u884c\u5927\u6a5f\u6703\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u77ed\u671fSONIA\uff08\u82f1\u938a\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6578\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u7121\u62b5\u62bc\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u606f\u7684\u53c3\u8003\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u8ce6\u4e88\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6b0a\u5229\u4f46\u975e\u7fa9\u52d9\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6cbd\u51fa\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08short straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6cbd\u51fa\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u53ca\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0d\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6216\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u975e\u5c0d\u7a31\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u51fa\u73fe\u504f\u9df9\u610f\u5916\uff08hawkish surprise\uff0c\u5373\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6536\u7dca\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u4ee4\u8cb7\u5165\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\uff09\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u9632\u7bc4\u592e\u884c\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u901a\u8139\u6548\u61c9\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u5de5\u8cc7\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7b49\u628a\u901a\u8139\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u7684\u9023\u9396\u53cd\u61c9\uff09\u800c\u63a1\u53d6\u300c\u4fdd\u96aa\u5f0f\u300d\u6536\u7dca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u592e\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5c6c\u9700\u8981\u65e5\u5f8c\u626d\u8f49\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u57282026\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u62162027\u5e74\u521d\u51fa\u73fe\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\uff08policy pivot\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u52a0\u606f\u8f49\u70ba\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u7531\u7dca\u7e2e\u8f49\u70ba\u5bec\u9b06\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u90e8\u7f72\u4ee5\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u65e5\u66c6\u50f9\u5dee\uff08calendar spreads\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u671f\u9650\u7d50\u69cb\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u8868\u9054\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5efa\u7acbVT Markets\u771f\u5be6\u6236\u53e3<\/a>\u00a0\u4e26\u00a0\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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