\u7f8e\u5143\/\u745e\u90ce\uff08USD\/CHF\uff09\u5468\u56db\u8b8a\u52d5\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u8d70\u52e2\u53cd\u8986\uff08\u5373\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4e0a\u843d\u983b\u5bc6\u3001\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u6e05\uff09\uff0c\u622a\u7a3f\u6642\u57280.7845\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4ea4\u6295\u5be9\u614e\uff0c\u7126\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u7f8e\u4f0a\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u9053\uff09\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u76e4\u4e2d\u4e00\u5ea6\u8f49\u5f31\u5f8c\u4ecd\u7372\u652f\u6301\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08US Dollar Index\uff0cDXY\uff1a\u91cf\u5ea6\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u5728\u65e5\u5167\u9ad8\u4f4d98.80\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4ecd\u9760\u8fd198.67\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728Truth Social\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5df2\u300c\u5b8c\u5168\u63a7\u5236\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u7a31\u5df2\u4e0b\u4ee4\u6d77\u8ecd\u300c\u5c04\u64ca\u4e26\u64ca\u6c89\u300d\u4efb\u4f55\u5728\u8a72\u8655\u5e03\u96f7\u7684\u8239\u96bb\uff0c\u53c8\u6307\u76f8\u95dc\u822a\u9053\u5728\u4f0a\u6717\u9054\u6210\u5354\u8b70\u524d\u300c\u5df2\u88ab\u56b4\u5bc6\u5c01\u9396\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u8868\u73fe\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u6a19\u666e\u5168\u7403\uff08S&P Global\uff094\u6708\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff1a\u4ee5\u4f01\u696d\u8abf\u67e5\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\uff0c50\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\uff09\u521d\u503c\u5347\u81f354\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc3\u6708\u768452.3\uff0c\u527547\u500b\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\uff1b\u670d\u52d9\u696dPMI\u5347\u81f351.3\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc3\u6708\u768449.8\uff0c\u5275\u5169\u500b\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\uff08Initial Jobless Claims\uff1a\u6bcf\u5468\u65b0\u589e\u7533\u9818\u5931\u696d\u91d1\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u5728\u622a\u81f34\u670818\u65e5\u7684\u4e00\u5468\u5347\u81f321.4\u842c\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u768421.2\u842c\uff0c\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u524d\u503c20.8\u842c\u3002\u5f9e\u65e5\u7dda\u5716\u770b\uff0cUSD\/CHF\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc100\u65e5\u7c21\u55ae\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff08SMA\uff1a\u628a\u904e\u53bbN\u65e5\u6536\u5e02\u50f9\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8da8\u52e2\u53c3\u8003\uff09\u7d040.7865\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca200\u65e5SMA\u7d040.7937\uff1b\u76f8\u5c0d\u5f37\u5f31\u6307\u6578\uff08RSI\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u5347\u8dcc\u52d5\u80fd\uff0c\u5e38\u75280-100\uff09\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u8ef8\uff1b\u5e73\u5747\u8da8\u5411\u6307\u6578\uff08ADX\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u8da8\u52e2\u5f37\u5ea6\uff0c\u6578\u503c\u8d8a\u9ad8\u8da8\u52e2\u8d8a\u660e\u986f\uff09\u572826\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u4f0a\u5c0d\u5cd9\u4ee4\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u84cb\u904eUSD\/CHF\u504f\u5f31\u7684\u6280\u8853\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6216\u6025\u5347\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5347\u8dcc\u3001\u53ea\u8981\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u884c\u60c5\u5c31\u53d7\u60e0\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n
2022\u5e74\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6230\u4e8b\u521d\u671f\u4ea6\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08Cboe Volatility Index\uff0cVIX\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u66fe\u7531\u7d0420\u5347\u81f335\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u82e5\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u51fa\u73fe\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5347\u7d1a\uff0c\u6216\u5916\u4ea4\u7a81\u7136\u53d6\u5f97\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u5916\u532f\u6ce2\u52d5\u6025\u589e\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u53cd\u8986\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u6216\u53ea\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u8d70\u52e2\u524d\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u5e73\u975c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5982\u9810\u671f\u5373\u5c07\u300c\u7834\u4f4d\u300d\uff08breakout\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7834\u5340\u9593\u6216\u95dc\u9375\u4f4d\u5f8c\u52a0\u901f\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u8cb7\u5165\u9577\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u8cfc\u53ca\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff09\u6216\u9577\u52d2\u5f0f\uff08long strangle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u9060\u7684\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\uff09\u4f86\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u843d\u3002\u4ee5\u4e3b\u8981\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u4f5c\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9760\u8fd10.7850\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u5169\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u90fd\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u62bc\u932f\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u4ee4\u55ae\u908a\u65b9\u5411\u5224\u65b7\u66f4\u96e3\uff0c\u5c0d\u73fe\u6709\u5009\u4f4d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u300c\u5c0d\u6c96\u300d\uff08hedging\uff1a\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\u6216\u76f8\u95dc\u5de5\u5177\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u8b8a\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u5347\u81f347\u500b\u6708\u65b0\u9ad854\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u504f\u5f37\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u4f46\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u5347\u81f321.4\u842c\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f86\u5be9\u614e\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u4e92\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u73fe\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff08spot market\uff1a\u5373\u6642\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3001\u76f4\u63a5\u6301\u5009\uff09\u76f4\u63a5\u505a\u591a\u6216\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u4e0a\u6f14\u5178\u578b\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u91d1\u62c9\u92f8\u300d\uff08safe-haven tug-of-war\uff1a\u8cc7\u91d1\u5728\u5169\u7a2e\u907f\u96aa\u8ca8\u5e63\u4e4b\u9593\u8f49\u79fb\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8207\u745e\u90ce\u540c\u6a23\u5177\u907f\u96aa\u5c6c\u6027\uff0c\u4ee4\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7f3a\u4e4f\u660e\u78ba\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u82e5\u5c0d\u5cd9\u6301\u7e8c\u4f46\u672a\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u6216\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6a6b\u884c\uff08range-bound\uff1a\u5728\u5340\u9593\u5167\u4e0a\u843d\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u900f\u904e\u8ce3\u51fa\u671f\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08option premium\uff1a\u8cb7\u65b9\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u4f86\u6536\u53d6\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u9435\u5140\u9df9\u300d\uff08iron condor\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e00\u7d44\u8f03\u8fd1\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\/\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u4e26\u8cb7\u5165\u4e00\u7d44\u66f4\u9060\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u653e\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u9ad8\u4f4e\u4f4d\u4ee5\u5916\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u7336\u8c6b\u4e0d\u6c7a\u6642\u8cfa\u53d6\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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