{"id":45677,"date":"2026-04-22T17:07:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T17:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45677\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T17:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T17:07:13","slug":"%e8%8f%af%e5%83%91%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%ab%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e5%b8%83%e8%98%ad%e7%89%b9%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e9%80%bc%e8%bf%91100%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8c%e9%9c%8d%e7%88%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/45677\/","title":{"rendered":"\u83ef\u50d1\u9280\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u6cb9\u50f9\u903c\u8fd1100\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6c34\u9053\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u963b\u5f15\u767c\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u6eef\u8139\u6182\u616e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u5728\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u518d\u8d77\u4e0b\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6b63\u903c\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u6ce2\u65af\u7063\u8207\u963f\u66fc\u7063\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u9053\uff09\u6cb9\u6d41\u63d0\u65e9\u6062\u5fa9\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\u6b63\u88ab\u5851\u9020\u6210\u300c\u6cb9\u50f9\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u5f31\u3001\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u9ad8\u300d\u7684\u7d44\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u505c\u904b\u518d\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u5eab\u5b58\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u300c\u64cd\u4f5c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u300d\uff08operational lows\uff0c\u5373\u7dad\u6301\u65e5\u5e38\u4f9b\u61c9\u8207\u7269\u6d41\u904b\u4f5c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u5eab\u5b58\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u300c\u9700\u6c42\u7834\u58de\u300d\uff08demand destruction\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u50f9\u683c\u904e\u9ad8\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5f31\u800c\u4ee4\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u6cb9\u91cf\u88ab\u8feb\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9014\u5f91\uff0c\u4e26\u52a0\u5927\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u53ca\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u4ea6\u958b\u59cb\u6d6e\u73fe\u3002\u5831\u9053\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u5305\u62ec\u822a\u73ed\u53d6\u6d88\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u7149\u6cb9\u5ee0\u958b\u5de5\u7387\uff08refinery utilisation\uff0c\u5373\u7522\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u7387\uff09\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b50\u76df\u7814\u7a76\u512a\u5316\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u903c\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u6b63\u6b65\u5165\u8271\u96e3\u7684\u300c\u6cb9\u50f9\u2014\u6eef\u8139\u300d\u74b0\u5883\uff08oil-stagflation\uff0c\u5373\u6cb9\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\u540c\u6642\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u8207\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u6cb9\u6d41\u6301\u7e8c\u53d7\u963b\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52d5\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u5728\u6b64\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9700\u6e96\u5099\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u52a0\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u5468\u7f8e\u570b\u80fd\u6e90\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7f72\uff08EIA\uff09\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u539f\u6cb9\u5eab\u5b58\u6e1b\u5c11490\u842c\u6876\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5206\u6790\u54e1\u9810\u671f\u7684210\u842c\u6876\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4f9b\u61c9\u6536\u7dca\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u5eab\u5b58\u6b63\u903c\u8fd1\u300c\u64cd\u4f5c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u300d\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u65b0\u589e\u4f9b\u61c9\u6d88\u606f\u6975\u70ba\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u5373\u8ce6\u4e88\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6b0a\u5229\u800c\u975e\u7fa9\u52d9\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u7684\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u4ee4\u76f4\u63a5\u505a\u591a\uff08outright long\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u55ae\u5411\u8cb7\u5165\u6301\u5009\uff09\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u300c\u8a8d\u8cfc\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08call spreads\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u4e26\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u9650\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u6210\u672c\uff1b\u8a72\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u7372\u76ca\uff0c\u6bcb\u9808\u627f\u64d4\u55ae\u8cb7\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u8981\u7559\u610f\u300c\u9700\u6c42\u7834\u58de\u300d\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u800c\u76f8\u95dc\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u6309\u570b\u969b\u822a\u7a7a\u904b\u8f38\u5354\u6703\uff08IATA\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\uff0c2026\u5e743\u6708\u5168\u7403\u822a\u73ed\u53d6\u6d88\u91cf\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u53478%\u3002\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\u6216\u70ba\u6cb9\u50f9\u5e36\u4f86\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f9b\u61c9\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u7dca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u62c9\u92f8\u610f\u5473\u7149\u6cb9\u5229\u6f64\uff08refining margins\uff09\u6216\u53d7\u58d3\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6a19\u70ba\u300c\u88c2\u89e3\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08crack spreads\uff0c\u5373\u6210\u54c1\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u53cd\u6620\u7149\u6cb9\u5229\u6f64\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u822a\u7a7a\u71c3\u6cb9\u8207\u6c7d\u6cb9\u7b49\u6210\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5feb\u65bc\u539f\u6cb9\u4f9b\u61c9\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u5dee\u6536\u7a84\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u9019\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u66f4\u7d30\u7dfb\u5730\u8868\u9054\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5f31\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u770b2025\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u53ef\u8a18\u8d772022\u5e74\u672b\u6cb9\u50f9\u6025\u901f\u9006\u8f49\uff1a\u7576\u6642\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6182\u616e\u6700\u7d42\u84cb\u904e\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u885d\u7a81\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u521d\u671f\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u82e5\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u901a\u8139\u800c\u88ab\u8feb\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u8d70\u52e2\u6216\u518d\u73fe\u3002\u6b64\u6b77\u53f2\u4f8b\u5b50\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b9c\u5728\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u904e\u5ea6\u770b\u597d\u592a\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u83ef\u50d1\u9280\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u6cb9\u6216\u903c\u8fd1\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u4e00\u65e6\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6c34\u9053\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u6025\u5347\u52e2\u6380\u5168\u7403\u6eef\u8139\u9670\u973e\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9808\u8b66\u60d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45677\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}