{"id":45580,"date":"2026-04-21T23:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T23:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45580\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T23:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T23:00:23","slug":"%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e6%8f%90%e5%90%8d%e7%9a%84%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e5%b1%80%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e4%ba%ba%e9%81%b8%e5%87%b1%e6%96%87%e2%80%a7%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e5%90%91%e5%8f%83%e8%ad%b0%e5%93%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/45580\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\u51f1\u6587\u2027\u6c83\u4ec0\u5411\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9700\u8981\u6539\u9769\uff1b\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u6216\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Warsh\uff08\u51f1\u6587\u30fb\u6c83\u4ec0\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u63a5\u66ff\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u51fa\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u4eba\u9078\uff0c\u5411\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u9280\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u63a8\u52d5\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6539\u9769\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u6539\u9769\u8207\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u58d3\u529b\u9023\u7e6b\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u4ee5\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e26\u5b88\u4f4f\u8077\u6b0a\u7bc4\u570d\uff08remit\uff0c\u5373\u6cd5\u5b9a\u5de5\u4f5c\u7bc4\u570d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u547c\u7c72\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6846\u67b6\uff08inflation framework\uff0c\u5373\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7528\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u3001\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u61c9\u7684\u4e00\u5957\u505a\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e26\u52a0\u5f37\u6e9d\u901a\u6e05\u6670\u5ea6\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u70ba\u5de5\u5177\u6bd4\u8cb7\u50b5\u66f4\u300c\u516c\u5e73\u300d\u3002\u8cb7\u50b5\u5373\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\uff08Quantitative Easing\uff0cQE\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u7528\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u8cb7\u5165\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u7b49\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u58d3\u4f4e\u9577\u671f\u5229\u7387\u3001\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\uff1b\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u9000\u51fa\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u7684\u4e8b\u300d\uff08fiscal business\uff0c\u5373\u66f4\u50cf\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u9322\u3001\u652f\u51fa\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u592e\u884c\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6c83\u4ec0\u53c8\u6307\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u9858\u610f\u6539\u8b8a\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e26\u76e1\u5feb\u7cfe\u6b63\u932f\u8aa4\uff1b\u4ed6\u5c0d\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u9810\u5148\u5411\u5e02\u5834\u63d0\u793a\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u9810\u671f\uff09\u62b1\u61f7\u7591\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u7a31\u5b98\u54e1\u5f80\u5f80\u904e\u65e9\u8ac7\u8ad6\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff08rate path\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u65e5\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u8abf\u6216\u4e0b\u8abf\u7684\u8def\u7dda\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8aaa\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u7565\u6709\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6eef\u5f8c\uff08lags\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u624d\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u751f\u660e\u986f\u5f71\u97ff\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u628a\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation overshoot\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8139\u8d85\u51fa\u76ee\u6a19\u6216\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff09\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff1b\u53c8\u6307\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u5176\u6a21\u578b\uff08models\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u901a\u8139\u3001\u589e\u9577\u8207\u5931\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6c83\u4ec0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7e2e\u5c0f\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\uff08balance sheet\uff0c\u5373\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6301\u6709\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u7b49\u8cc7\u7522\u898f\u6a21\uff09\u6216\u53ef\u4ee4\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4f4e\u3001\u901a\u8139\u8868\u73fe\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u66f4\u5f37\u3002\u4ed6\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e8c\u683c\u6797\u5a01\u6cbb\u6642\u959309:00\u4f5c\u8b49\u3002<\/p>\n

CME FedWatch Tool\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u7b97\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u4f30\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u9810\u671f\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u81f32026\u5e74\u5e95\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57283.5%\u20133.75%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7d04\u70ba60%\u3002\u4eca\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u539f\u672c\u9810\u6e2c\u5e74\u5167\u6e1b\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u3001\u6bcf\u6b2125\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis point\uff0cbp\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c1\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc0.01\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u53730.01%\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5f8c\u56e0\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u91dd\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u4ee4\u539f\u6cb9\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e26\u5f15\u767c\u901a\u8139\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u51fa\u73fe\u8f49\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\u51f1\u6587\u2027\u6c83\u4ec0\u5728\u53c3\u9662\u653e\u8a71\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9808\u6539\u9769\uff1b\u52a0\u5feb\u7e2e\u8868\u6216\u53ef\u62c9\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7dca\u76ef\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u53ca\u8cc7\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u884c\u6a5f\u9047\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}