\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\uff08Fed\uff09\u5b98\u54e1\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\uff0e\u6c83\u52d2\uff08Christopher Waller\uff09\u5468\u4e94\u5728\u963f\u62c9\u5df4\u99ac\u5dde\u5967\u672c\u5927\u5b78\u8ac7\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u53ca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u7387\u300d\uff08break-even rate\uff0c\u5373\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\u8981\u9054\u5230\u67d0\u500b\u6c34\u5e73\u624d\u7b97\u8db3\u4ee5\u62b5\u92b7\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u4f9b\u61c9\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u4ee4\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0d\u81f4\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u6307\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u6230\u4e8b\u82e5\u672a\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e26\u62d6\u9577\uff0c\u5c07\u52a0\u5927\u901a\u8139\u53ca\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u885d\u7a81\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6c83\u52d2\u7a31\u5c07\u5bc6\u5207\u7559\u610f\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u591a\u58d3\u529b\u8de1\u8c61\u3002\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u4ee4\u5206\u6790\u73fe\u6cc1\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u671f\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u9577\u70ba\u8ca0\u672a\u5fc5\u4ee3\u8868\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff08recession\uff0c\u5373\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6301\u7e8c\u6536\u7e2e\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u885d\u64ca\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u8981\u300c\u5ffd\u7565\u300d\uff08look through\uff0c\u6307\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u653f\u7b56\u6642\u628a\u77ed\u66ab\u3001\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u8996\u70ba\u4e0d\u6703\u9577\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\u901a\u8139\u3001\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u901a\u8139\u8df3\u5347\u6703\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u82e5\u6230\u4e8b\u8fc5\u901f\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u5c07\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u8996\u70ba\u77ed\u66ab\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u8868\u793a\u6703\u5bc6\u5207\u89c0\u5bdf\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5373\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5de5\u8cc7\u53ca\u5b9a\u50f9\u884c\u70ba\uff09\u5982\u4f55\u56de\u61c9\u885d\u7a81\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\u6216\u6703\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u9020\u6210\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c3\u6708\u6574\u9ad4PCE\u901a\u8139\uff08headline PCE inflation\uff0c\u5373\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\uff1bPCE\u662fFed\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u90543.5%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8de1\u8c61\u986f\u793a\uff0cFed\u5c07\u66f4\u96e3\u628a\u8fd1\u671f\u901a\u8139\u56de\u5347\u8996\u70ba\u77ed\u66ab\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u6642\u9810\u671f3\u6708\u6574\u9ad4PCE\u901a\u8139\u53ef\u90543.5%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u65b0CPI\u6578\u64da\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4f4f\u6236\u8cfc\u8cb7\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u4ea6\u986f\u793a\u6309\u5e74\u53473.7%\u3002\u5c0d\u4ee5\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u6307\u8cb7\u8ce3\u300c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u300d\u7684\u4eba\uff1b\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u662f\u50f9\u503c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u300c\u6a19\u7684\u300d\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u770b\u4f86\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u4ecd\u9700\u7dca\u76ef\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\u7684\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u4efd\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u50c5\u65b0\u589e8.5\u842c\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u8f032025\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u8f03\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u589e\u9577\u660e\u986f\u653e\u6162\u3002\u9019\u4ea6\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\u66f4\u96e3\u89e3\u8b80\uff1a\u82e5\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5c31\u696d\u51fa\u73fe\u77ed\u66ab\u8ca0\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u7acb\u523b\u89f8\u767c\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u62d6\u9577\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u6025\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u672c\u6708\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u5df2\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8cfc\u5165\u300c\u4fdd\u8b77\u300d\uff08protection\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u5c0d\u6c96\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u6216\u63a1\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff08options strategies\uff1b\u671f\u6b0a\u662f\u7d66\u4e88\u8cb7\u65b9\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\u524d\/\u7576\u65e5\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6216\u66f4\u70ba\u5be9\u614e\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08CBOE Volatility Index\uff0c\u6216VIX\uff1b\u53c8\u7a31\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6a19\u666e500\u671f\u6b0a\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5347\u81f321\uff0c\u4ea6\u652f\u6301\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u64f4\u5927\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u6c83\u52d2\u8b66\u544a\u5c07\u7dca\u76ef\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u89c0\u5bdf\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u8f49\u5f31\uff1b\u6307\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u903c\u8fd1\u96f6\uff0c\u82e5\u58d3\u529b\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u6216\u5f71\u97ff\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45324\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}