{"id":44629,"date":"2026-04-10T09:01:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T09:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44629\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T09:01:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T09:01:01","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e5%9c%8b%e5%95%86%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88commerzbank%ef%bc%89volkmar-baur%ef%bc%9a%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e7%84%a6%e9%bb%9e%e9%87%8d%e5%9b%9e%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%8e%a8%e5%8b%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/44629\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Commerzbank\uff09Volkmar Baur\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u91cd\u56de\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5de6\u53f3\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u53ca\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f91"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5916\u532f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u7531\u6d77\u7063\u5730\u5340\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u8f49\u5411\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\uff09\u53ca\u5f71\u97ff\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b3\u6708\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u6c11\u751f\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u53470.9%\uff0c\u4ee4\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u5e45\u5347\u81f33.4%\uff0c\u70ba\u5169\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6838\u5fc3CPI\uff0c\u6599\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u53470.3%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6cb9\u50f9\u8207\u901a\u8139\u6210\u7126\u9ede<\/h3>\n<p>\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6216\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u67f4\u6cb9\u6210\u672c\u900f\u904e\u8ca8\u904b\u904b\u8f38\u50b3\u5c0e\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5bb6\u5ead\u7528\u6cb9\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u67f4\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6708\u4e0a\u534732%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7269\u6d41\u516c\u53f8\u56e0\u61c9\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u52a0\u50f9\u3002\u81f33\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u8ca8\u8eca\u904b\u8cbb\uff08trucking rates\uff0c\u6307\u8ca8\u904b\u516c\u53f8\u5411\u5ba2\u6236\u6536\u53d6\u7684\u904b\u8f38\u8cbb\u7387\uff09\u8f032\u6708\u5e95\u9ad8\u903e10%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904b\u8f38\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u5168\u7d93\u6fdf\u5404\u985e\u8ca8\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u9818\u5c0e\u4e0b\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e26\u5de6\u53f3\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u542b\u610f<\/h3>\n<p>\u73fe\u6642WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u57fa\u6e96\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u5f98\u5f8a\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u672c\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u76842026\u5e743\u6708\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0cCPI\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u4f01\u65bc3.8%\u3002\u9019\u53cd\u66202025\u5e743\u6708\u67f4\u6cb9\u6210\u672c\u6025\u534732%\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5df2\u6ef2\u5165\u96f6\u552e\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u7522\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08PPI\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u4f01\u696d\u51fa\u5ee0\u6216\u6279\u767c\u5c64\u9762\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u8ca8\u904b\u5361\u8eca\u76f8\u95dc\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6708\u518d\u53470.5%\uff0c\u78ba\u8a8d\u8da8\u52e2\u672a\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cWarsh\u9818\u5c0e\u4e0b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u7dca\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u6307\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6700\u65b0CPI\u5831\u544a\u5f8c\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08fed funds futures\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u8a087\u6708\u524d\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7d0460%\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u56e0\u800c\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52e2\uff0c\u73fe\u65bc108\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u7e8c\u5f37\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5c0d\u592e\u884c\u7acb\u5834\u8f03\u504f\u5bec\u9b06\uff08dovish\uff0c\u6307\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u5982\u6b50\u5143\u6216\u65e5\u5713\uff0c\u6216\u8f03\u70ba\u5408\u9069\u3002\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u672a\u9664\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u6307\u652f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u4ee5\u53d6\u5f97\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584aETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e64\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u80fd\u6e90\u80a1\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u4ea6\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\u6cb9\u50f9\u518d\u6025\u5347\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u4ea6\u9700\u7dca\u76ef\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08interest rate derivatives\uff0c\u8207\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u639b\u920e\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u90e8\u7f72\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6216\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884cBaur\u6307\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u91cd\u56de\u6cb9\u50f9\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u727d\u52d5\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e26\u5de6\u53f3\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u606f\u7387\u8def\u5f91\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9808\u7dca\u76ef\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u6355\u6349\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f2a\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}