{"id":44529,"date":"2026-04-09T19:44:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:44:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44529\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T19:44:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:44:56","slug":"frantisek-taborsky%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e6%b3%a2%e8%98%ad%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%87%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%9c%a83-75%ef%bc%8c%e9%9a%a8%e7%9d%80%e6%94%b6%e7%b7%8a%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/44529\/","title":{"rendered":"Frantisek Taborsky\u9810\u6e2c\u6ce2\u862d\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57283.75%\uff0c\u96a8\u7740\u6536\u7dca\u9810\u671f\u964d\u6eab\u52a9\u529b\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\u56de\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ING \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6ce2\u862d\u570b\u5bb6\u9280\u884c\uff08National Bank of Poland\uff0cNBP\uff09\u5f88\u5927\u6a5f\u6703\u5728\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5167\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u7528\u4f86\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u70ba 3.75%\u3002ING \u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u6c92\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff08forecast\uff0c\u5373\u5b98\u65b9\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u901a\u8139\u7b49\u7684\u63a8\u7b97\uff09\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u81ea 3 \u6708\u6e1b\u606f\uff08rate cut\uff0c\u5373\u4e0b\u8abf\u5229\u7387\uff09\u5f8c\u9996\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u884c\u9577\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u2014\u4f0a\u6717\u505c\u706b\uff08ceasefire\uff0c\u5373\u8ecd\u4e8b\u885d\u7a81\u66ab\u505c\uff09\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5254\u8d70\u7d04 1.5 \u6b21\u539f\u5148\u9810\u671f\u7684\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate hikes\uff0c\u5373\u4e0a\u8abf\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u5e74\u671f\uff08one\u2011year horizon\uff0c\u5373\u672a\u4f86\u7d04 12 \u500b\u6708\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff09\u5229\u7387\u5b9a\u50f9\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc 20 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bp\uff0cbasis points\uff0c\u5373 1bp=0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0cING \u7a31\u9019\u662f\u4e2d\u6771\u6b50\uff08CEE\uff0cCentral and Eastern Europe\uff09\u5340\u5167\u6700\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Policy And Inflation Backdrop<\/h3>\n<p>ING \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4ecb\u5165\u71c3\u6cb9\u5e02\u5834\uff08fuel market\uff0c\u5373\u900f\u904e\u63aa\u65bd\u5f71\u97ff\u71c3\u6599\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u9810\u8a08\u53ef\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\uff08inflation\uff0c\u5373\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u5927\u81f4\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u592e\u884c\u5bb9\u8a31\u5340\u9593\uff08tolerance band\uff0c\u5373\u76ee\u6a19\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6d6e\u52d5\u7bc4\u570d\uff09\u5167\u3002ING \u9810\u6e2c\u5229\u7387\u6703\u5728\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5167\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>EUR\/PLN\uff08\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u6ce2\u862d\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\u532f\u7387\uff09\u9304\u5f97\u4e00\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u55ae\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u62b9\u53bb\u7d04\u4e00\u534a\u7531\u885d\u7a81\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002ING \u6307\uff0c\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u53ca\u5340\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6d88\u606f\uff08geopolitical news\uff0c\u5373\u8207\u570b\u969b\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff09\u5e36\u52d5\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\uff08risk sentiment\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff09\u4fdd\u6301\u652f\u6301\u3001\u505c\u706b\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u8981\u56de\u843d\u81f3 4.220 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u9700\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Strategy And Key Levels<\/h3>\n<p>\u9019\u4ee4\u4ea4\u6613\u74b0\u5883\u8207 2025 \u5e74\u8f03\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff08high interest rates\uff0c\u5373\u8f03\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff09\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u652f\u6301\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\uff0c\u4f46\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u518d\u73fe\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff08jitters\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u5b89\uff09\u6216\u4ee4\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u9650\uff08short\u2011dated\uff0c\u5373\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u8f03\u8fd1\uff09\u7684 EUR\/PLN \u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6b0a\uff08straddles\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u8207\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u535a\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u8f03\u5927\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6ce2\u862d\u8207\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u5229\u5dee\uff08interest rate differential\uff0c\u5373\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u4ea6\u8f03 2025 \u5e74\u66ab\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u6642\u66f4\u5438\u5f15\u3002\u9019\u4ee4\u5728\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04\uff08forward contracts\uff0c\u5373\u9810\u5148\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5916\u532f\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e2d\u300c\u6536\u53d6 PLN\u300d\uff08receiving PLN\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u6301\u6709\uff0f\u6536\u606f\u6ce2\u862d\u5229\u7387\u4e00\u65b9\u4ee5\u8cfa\u53d6\u606f\u5dee\uff09\u6210\u70ba\u8f03\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff0c\u5373\u501f\u4f4e\u606f\u8ca8\u5e63\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u9ad8\u606f\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cfa\u53d6\u5229\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u532f\u7387\u76f8\u5c0d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u8a72\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u671b\u5e36\u4f86\u6b63\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u885d\u7a81\u524d 4.220 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ecd\u662f\u9577\u7dda\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u4f46\u77ed\u671f\u7126\u9ede\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u7684 4.250 \u652f\u6301\u4f4d\uff08support\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u6613\u6b62\u8dcc\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09\uff0c\u8a72\u6c34\u5e73\u81ea 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u5df2\u5169\u5ea6\u5b88\u4f4f\u3002\u82e5\u8dcc\u7a7f\uff08break below\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u6548\u8dcc\u7834\uff09\u6216\u4ee3\u8868\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8f49\u5f37\uff1b\u82e5\u672a\u80fd\u5b88\u7a69\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u6216\u6703\u8f03\u5feb\u4e0a\u8a66 4.320 \u9644\u8fd1\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\uff08resistance\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u6613\u53d7\u58d3\u56de\u843d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Taborsky\u6599\u6ce2\u862d\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u65bc3.75%\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6536\u7dca\u9810\u671f\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u56de\u6d41\u63a8\u52d5\u8332\u7f85\u63d0\u53cd\u5f48\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u95dc\u6ce8\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u5f15\u6703\u5426\u518d\u6380\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}