{"id":44340,"date":"2026-04-08T00:19:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44340\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T00:19:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:19:31","slug":"%e5%b8%83%e6%9c%97%e5%85%84%e5%bc%9f%e5%93%88%e9%87%8c%e6%9b%bc%ef%bc%88bbh%ef%bc%89%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%abelias-haddad%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%ef%bc%8c%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88rbi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/44340\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u6717\u5144\u5f1f\u54c8\u91cc\u66fc\uff08BBH\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u5e2bElias Haddad\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u592e\u884c\uff08RBI\uff09\u3001\u6ce2\u862d\u592e\u884c\uff08NBP\uff09\u3001\u79d8\u9b6f\u592e\u884c\uff08BCRP\uff09\u53ca\u5357\u97d3\u592e\u884c\uff08BOK\uff09\u672c\u5468\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brown Brothers Harriman \u9810\u671f\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u6709\u56db\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba\u5370\u5ea6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBI\uff09\u3001\u6ce2\u862d\u570b\u5bb6\u9280\u884c\uff08NBP\uff09\u3001\u79d8\u9b6f\u4e2d\u592e\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08BCRP\uff09\u53ca\u97d3\u570b\u9280\u884c\uff08BOK\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0cRBI \u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e09\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728 5.25%\u3002\u592e\u884c\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u56e0\u901a\u8139\u524d\u666f\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u7531\u300c\u4e2d\u6027\u300d\u8f49\u70ba\u300c\u9650\u5236\u6027\u300d\uff08\u5373\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\u7684\u53d6\u5411\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Central Banks Expected To Hold<\/h3>\n<p>NBP \u9810\u671f\u5728\u5468\u56db\u628a\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.75%\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u5728 3 \u6708 4 \u65e5\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff1b\u57fa\u9ede\u662f\u5229\u7387\u8a08\u7b97\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c100 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 1 \u5398\uff09\u3002\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08swaps\uff1b\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 12 \u500b\u6708\u7d2f\u8a08\u52a0\u606f\u7d04 60 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79d8\u9b6f BCRP \u9810\u671f\u5468\u56db\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.25%\u30023 \u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u53ca\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u6838\u5fc3 CPI \u6703\u6263\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\uff09\u901a\u8139\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4e26\u9ad8\u65bc\u592e\u884c 1% \u81f3 3% \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u97d3\u570b\u9280\u884c BOK \u9810\u671f\u5468\u4e94\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728 2.50%\u3002\u5176 6 \u500b\u6708\u5229\u7387\u9810\u6e2c\uff08\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u7684\u6307\u5f15\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u300c\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u300d\u8f49\u70ba\u300c\u986f\u793a\u52a0\u606f\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5370\u5ea6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u672c\u5468\u9810\u671f\u628a\u56de\u8cfc\u5229\u7387\uff08repo rate\uff1b\u592e\u884c\u628a\u8cc7\u91d1\u501f\u7d66\u9280\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 6.0%\uff0c\u4f46\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u975e\u5c0d\u7a31\u30023 \u6708 CPI \u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u56de\u5347\u81f3 4.9% \u5f8c\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u5411\u66f4\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff1b\u4ee3\u8868\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u56b4\u63a7\u901a\u8139\uff09\u3002\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u8207 2025 \u5e74\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c64\u56e0\u901a\u8139\u524d\u666f\u8f49\u5dee\u800c\u8003\u616e\u628a\u7acb\u5834\u8f49\u70ba\u9650\u5236\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Forward Guidance In Focus<\/h3>\n<p>\u6ce2\u862d\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.50%\uff0c\u7126\u9ede\u5c07\u843d\u5728\u884c\u9577 Glapinski \u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff1b\u592e\u884c\u7528\u8a00\u8ad6\u6216\u9810\u6e2c\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u3002\u6389\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\u903e 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u9577\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u8207 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6389\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7dda\uff08swaps curve\uff1b\u53cd\u6620\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u9650\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\uff09\u4ea6\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u660e\u986f\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u5bc6\u5207\u76e3\u5bdf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u79d8\u9b6f\u592e\u884c\u6703\u66ab\u505c\u5176\u6e1b\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\uff08easing cycle\uff1b\u4e00\u6bb5\u6301\u7e8c\u6e1b\u606f\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5468\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u628a\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 5.00%\u3002\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u518d\u73fe\uff0c3 \u6708\u6700\u65b0\u8b80\u6578\u70ba 3.2%\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u592e\u884c 1% \u81f3 3% \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u4ea6\u898b\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4ee4 BCRP \u9023\u7e8c\u4e03\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u97d3\u570b\u9280\u884c\u9810\u6599\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.50%\uff0c\u4e26\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u8d85\u904e\u5169\u5e74\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u65bc\u5176\u524d\u77bb\u9810\u6e2c\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u8fd1\u671f\u97d3\u571c\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u8dcc\u7a7f\u6bcf\u7f8e\u5143 1400 \u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u95dc\u53e3\uff08\u5fc3\u7406\u95dc\u53e3\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u6574\u6578\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u5f15\u767c\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u53cd\u61c9\uff09\u3002\u9019\u8207 2025 \u5e74\u6211\u5011\u76e3\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u8f49\u5411\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c64\u8003\u616e\u91cb\u653e\u672a\u4f86\u52a0\u606f\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u53d6\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BBH\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u6ce2\u862d\u3001\u79d8\u9b6f\u53ca\u5357\u97d3\u592e\u884c\u6599\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u901a\u8139\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u5b98\u54e1\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u518d\u8d77\u6ce2\u703e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- 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