{"id":43768,"date":"2026-03-30T21:42:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T21:42:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43768\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T21:42:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T21:42:39","slug":"%e7%b1%b3%e8%98%ad%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e4%b8%8a%e6%bc%b2%e5%b0%9a%e6%9c%aa%e6%94%b9%e8%ae%8a%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%ef%bc%9b%e5%84%98%e7%ae%a1%e5%b0%8d%e5%8b%9e%e5%8b%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/43768\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7c73\u862d\u8868\u793a\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u5c1a\u672a\u6539\u8b8a\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff1b\u5118\u7ba1\u5c0d\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6709\u6240\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ecd\u9810\u671f\u4e00\u5e74\u5167\u901a\u81a8\u5c07\u56de\u5230\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u6e96"},"content":{"rendered":"\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u30fb\u7c73\u862d\uff08Stephen Miran\uff09\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 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\u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u85aa\u8cc7\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u5230\u5e74\u589e 3.8%\uff0c\u5ef6\u7e8c 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u964d\u6eab\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u9019\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u300c\u9700\u8981\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u5de5\u8cc7\u2014\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u300d\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e26\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u542b\u610f<\/h3>\n\u5118\u7ba1\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff1b\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u5b9a\u50f9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u56e0\u5730\u7de3\u885d\u7a81\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876\u7d04 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4f46\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u9019\u6703\u63a8\u5347\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u30022026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u70ba 2.8%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6263\u9664\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u6e1b\u5f31\u3002\u9019\u8b93 Fed \u6709\u7a7a\u9593\u4e0d\u88ab\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u9707\u76ea\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u628a\u91cd\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u5f31\u4e0a\u3002\n\n\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5efa\u7acb\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u4fee\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\uff08\u671f\u8ca8\uff1a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\uff1b\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u672a\u4f86\u8cb7\u6216\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u53ea\u53cd\u6620 2026 \u5e74\u5269\u9918\u6642\u9593\u5927\u7d04\u5169\u6b21\u3001\u6bcf\u6b21 0.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u504f\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u6697\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u9ad8\u9054 1 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u843d\u5dee\u3002\n\n\u8003\u91cf\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\u6230\u722d\u9020\u6210\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u7a69\u5065\u3002\u8cb7\u9032\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call option\uff1b\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6216\u505a\u300c\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u300d\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u63db\uff08receive-fixed interest rate swap\uff1b\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u6536\u6b3e\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u6642\u53d7\u76ca\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u628a\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u9650\u5236\u5728\u5df2\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3002\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u6703\u8b93\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u8b8a\u8cb4\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4ee3\u8868\u82e5 Fed \u771f\u7684\u6697\u793a\u66f4\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff08repricing\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8fc5\u901f\u8abf\u6574\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4e5f\u61c9\u5bc6\u5207\u89c0\u5bdf\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\uff08yield curve\uff1b\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u5e74\u9650\u516c\u50b5\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6392\u5217\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u82e5 Fed 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