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Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u8981\u9053\uff09\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u7b49\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u4ecd\u672a\u89e3\u6c7a\uff1b\u800c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u8a18\u5f97 2019 \u5e74\u7dca\u5f35\u60c5\u52e2\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u300c\u964d\u6eab\u300d\u6a19\u984c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u88ab\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\u5728\u6cb9\u50f9\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u885d\u7a81\u524d\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cb7\u9032\u539f\u6cb9\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call option\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u63a7\uff08defined-risk\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u901a\u5e38\u9650\u65bc\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u8ac7\u5224\u82e5\u5931\u6557\u3001\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\n\n\u5c31\u5916\u532f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\u6b63\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u3002\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Eurostat\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u4ecd\u5728 3% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u5e74\u5e95\u524d ECB \u5347\u606f\u5169\u6b21\u6709\u5176\u7406\u7531\u3002\u76f8\u5c0d\u5730\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08PCE\uff0cFed \u5e38\u7528\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6c92\u6709\u7406\u7531\u8003\u616e\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u9019\u61c9\u80fd\u652f\u6490\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0d\u6613\u518d\u5927\u8dcc\u3002\n\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff08fundamentals\uff0c\u6307\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u6839\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u82e5\u4e94\u5929\u66ab\u505c\u5f8c\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u518d\u5ea6\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1\u6703\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u6d41\u7f8e\u5143\u9019\u985e\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff08safe-haven\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u504f\u597d\u505c\u6cca\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002DXY \u5f9e 100 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