{"id":40704,"date":"2026-03-23T10:58:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T10:58:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40704\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T10:58:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T10:58:48","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e5%9c%8b%e5%95%86%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84-thu-lan-nguyen-%e8%b3%aa%e7%96%91%ef%bc%9a%e5%84%98%e7%ae%a1%e9%9d%a2%e8%87%a8%e6%ad%b7%e5%8f%b2%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/40704\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\u7684 Thu Lan Nguyen \u8cea\u7591\uff1a\u5118\u7ba1\u9762\u81e8\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\uff0f\u7f8e\u5143\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u70ba\u4f55\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u4f4e\u6a94"},"content":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Commerzbank\uff09\u7684\u962e\u79cb\u862d\uff08Thu Lan Nguyen\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6709\u4eba\u5ba3\u7a31\u300c\u9019\u662f\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5c0d\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u300d\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\uff0f\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u7684\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u300d\u50f9\u683c\u5012\u63a8\u3001\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u532f\u7387\u8d77\u4f0f\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff09\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u5979\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u300c3 \u500b\u6708\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff083\u2011month implied volatility\uff1a\u4ee5\u672a\u4f86\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u70ba\u671f\u9650\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u6bd4 2020 \u5e74\u8207 2022 \u5e74\u5371\u6a5f\u521d\u671f\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u300c\u89e3\u653e\u65e5\u300d\uff08Liberation Day\uff09\u5f8c\u4e0d\u4e45\u9084\u4f4e\u3002\n\n\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u628a\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5916\u532f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08FX volatility\uff1a\u5916\u532f\u532f\u7387\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u548c\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u9810\u671f\u300d\uff08monetary policy expectations\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u9023\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u300c\u5229\u7387\u300d\u6703\u5927\u5e45\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u4e26\u6539\u8b8a\u5169\u7a2e\u8ca8\u5e63\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u300c\u5229\u5dee\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5dee\u300d\uff08carry differential\uff1a\u6301\u6709\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u53ef\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5dee\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n<h3>\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4ecd\u504f\u4f4e<\/h3>\n\u6587\u7ae0\u88dc\u5145\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u722d\u7206\u767c\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u90fd\u51fa\u73fe\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u5169\u5730\u300c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u300d\uff08repricing\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u628a\u65b0\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\uff09\u5e45\u5ea6\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u7d04\u7565\u90fd\u5728\u300c50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u300d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff08basis points\uff0cbp\uff1a1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01%\uff0c50 bp = 0.50%\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u76ee\u524d\u4e26\u672a\u6697\u793a\u5229\u5dee\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\n\n\u6587\u4e2d\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u904e\u53bb\u901a\u81a8\u671f\u9593\u66f4\u65e9\u51fa\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u300c\u5347\u606f\u9580\u6abb\u300d\uff08hurdle for rate hikes\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u54ea\u4e9b\u689d\u4ef6\u624d\u6703\u5347\u606f\uff09\u4f30\u5f97\u592a\u4f4e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u5230\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u8b93 EUR\/USD \u8d70\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002\n\n\u6587\u672b\u8aaa\u660e\u672c\u6587\u5728 AI \u5de5\u5177\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u95b1\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; 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