{"id":40389,"date":"2026-03-18T15:58:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T15:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40389\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T15:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T15:58:58","slug":"%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%8b%e8%88%88%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e9%87%8b%e5%87%ba%e9%99%90%e5%88%b6%e6%80%a7%e8%a8%8a%e8%99%9f%e5%8f%8a%e9%b7%b9%e6%b4%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/40389\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u91cb\u51fa\u9650\u5236\u6027\u8a0a\u865f\u53ca\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\u300b\uff08SEP\uff09\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bcG10\u8207\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u8868\u73fe"},"content":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Societe 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\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u6295\u4e0b\u53cd\u5c0d\u7968\uff0c\u504f\u597d\u964d\u606f\uff1b\u82e5\u5176\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4eba\u64a4\u56de\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff08dovish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u3001\u8f03\u91cd\u8996\u5c31\u696d\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u9810\u671f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff08Powell\uff09\u7684\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u8aaa\u6cd5\u5c07\u63a5\u8fd1\u904e\u5f80\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u5408\u9069\u300d\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u662f\u5426\u964d\u606f\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u5b83\u6307\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u8f03\u4e0d\u5e38\u898b\u4f46\u9700\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff1a2026 \u5e74 PCE \u901a\u81a8\u9810\u6e2c\uff08PCE\uff1a\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0cFed \u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5f9e 2.4% \u4e0a\u4fee\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4 FOMC\uff08\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff1aFed \u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u53d6\u6d88\u539f\u672c\u9810\u4f30\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u7f8e\u5143\u514c G10 \u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\uff08Treasury curve\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u5929\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\uff09\u5f9e\u300c\u725b\u5e02\u8da8\u5e73\u300d\uff08bull flattening\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0b\u964d\u4f46\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u964d\u66f4\u5feb\uff09\u8f49\u70ba\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u8da8\u5e73\u300d\uff08bear flattening\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5347\u4f46\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u5347\u66f4\u5feb\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5b83\u88dc\u5145\uff0cJan Groen 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\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u4f46\u843d\u7a7a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eca\u5e74\u300c\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u6b21\u300d\u9810\u4f30\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\uff1b\u9019\u6703\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u8996\u70ba\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\n\n\u9019\u500b\u98a8\u96aa\u4f86\u81ea\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\uff1a2 \u6708\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\uff08Core PCE\uff1a\u6392\u9664\u98df\u7269\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u770b\u300c\u8f03\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u300d\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u70ba 2.9%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u6027\uff08sticky inflation\uff1a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u53cd\u8986\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0cWTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u7d1a\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u4e0a\u6f32\u5230\u6bcf\u6876 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f7f\u901a\u81a8\u524d\u666f\u66f4\u96e3\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u82e5 Fed \u4e0a\u4fee\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u53d6\u6d88\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\n\n\u4f46 Fed \u4e5f\u5fc5\u9808\u517c\u9867\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u30022 \u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\uff08payrolls\uff1a\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\uff09\u610f\u5916\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u53ea\u589e\u52a0 9.5 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5347\u81f3 4.2%\uff0c\u8b93\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\u6210\u54e1\u66f4\u6709\u7406\u7531\u53cd\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u8f49\u5411\u3002\u901a\u81a8\u504f\u9ad8\u8207\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u653e\u7de9\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u62c9\u626f\uff0c\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff1a\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u532f\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u6b50\u5143\u6216\u65e5\u5713\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1a\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff1b\u652f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u5f8c\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u7528\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u9019\u80fd\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u9650\u5236\u5728\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u82e5 Fed \u53d6\u6d88 2026 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