{"id":40185,"date":"2026-03-16T18:59:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40185\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T18:59:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:59:58","slug":"warren-patterson-%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e6%ad%a3%e5%9b%a0%e8%8d%b7%e5%a7%86%e8%8c%b2%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%bd%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e4%b8%ad%e6%96%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/40185\/","title":{"rendered":"Warren Patterson \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u56e0\u8377\u59c6\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u53ef\u80fd\u9577\u671f\u4e2d\u65b7\u800c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u7d04 800 \u842c\u6876\/\u65e5\u505c\u64fa"},"content":{"rendered":"\u6cb9\u5e02\u5df2\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of 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\u5e74\u5f8c\u9801\u5ca9\u6cb9\uff08shale\uff0c\u5f9e\u9801\u5ca9\u5730\u5c64\u958b\u63a1\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\uff09\u5feb\u901f\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u53d7\u8cc7\u672c\u7d00\u5f8b\uff08capital discipline\uff0c\u696d\u8005\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u63a7\u7ba1\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u56de\u994b\u80a1\u6771\uff0c\u4e0d\u9858\u5927\u5e45\u64f4\u7522\uff09\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u9650\u5236\uff08supply chain constraints\uff0c\u8a2d\u5099\u3001\u4eba\u529b\u3001\u96f6\u4ef6\u7b49\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e0d\u8db3\uff09\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u8fc5\u901f\u62c9\u5347\u7522\u91cf\u3002\n\n\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff08futures market\uff0c\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u6642\u9593\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u6975\u7aef\u7a00\u7f3a\uff1a\u8fd1\u6708\u5408\u7d04\uff08front-month contract\uff0c\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u8f03\u516d\u500b\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u51fa\u73fe\u6bcf\u6876 5 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u660e\u986f\u6ea2\u50f9\uff08premium\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u66f4\u9ad8\uff09\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08backwardation\uff0c\u8fd1\u6708\u6bd4\u9060\u6708\u8cb4\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u77ed\u671f\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f4\u7f3a\uff09\u8868\u793a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9858\u610f\u4ed8\u66f4\u9ad8\u50f9\u683c\u4f86\u78ba\u4fdd\u7acb\u523b\u62ff\u5230\u539f\u6cb9\u3002\u4e0a\u9031\u6230\u7565\u77f3\u6cb9\u5132\u5099\uff08Strategic Petroleum Reserve\uff0cSPR\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7dca\u6025\u539f\u6cb9\u5eab\u5b58\uff09\u91cb\u51fa\u91cf\u53ea\u6709 1,500 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f37\u5316\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5404\u570b\u6b63\u8a66\u8457\u4fdd\u7559\u7dca\u6025\u5eab\u5b58\u3002\n\n\u6700\u7d42\u5e02\u5834\u5fc5\u9808\u9760\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u4f86\u9054\u5230\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u50f9\u683c\u9700\u8981\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002IEA \u6700\u65b0\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c2 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