{"id":40160,"date":"2026-03-16T12:59:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T12:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40160\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T12:59:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T12:59:14","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e6%84%8f%e5%bf%97%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e5%b0%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e4%b8%8d%e8%ae%8a%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/40160\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u9280\u884c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u672c\u9031\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa"},"content":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u9280\u884c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728\u672c\u9031\u6703\u8b70\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0cFed \u6703\u63d0\u5230\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u8072\u660e\u53ea\u6703\u5c0f\u5e45\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u4e5f\u9810\u8a08\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u723e\uff08Powell\uff09\u6703\u628a\u91cd\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u91d1\u878d\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u900f\u904e\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\n\n<h3>\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u901a\u81a8\uff08Core PCE inflation\uff0c\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u300d\u6263\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff0cFed \u5e38\u7528\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u6708\u6708\u589e 0.4%\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u5347\u81f3 3.1%\uff0c\u70ba 2024 \u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08dot plot\uff0cFed \u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u5716\u8868\uff09\u4ecd\u6703\u6307\u5411 2026 \u5e74\u50c5\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6cb9\u50f9\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u672c\u9031\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u672c\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u57fa\u8abf\u3002\n\n\u5728 Fed \u9810\u671f\u672c\u9031\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u843d\u5dee\u3002\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed funds futures\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u4ecd\u6697\u793a\u5230 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u63a5\u8fd1\u964d\u606f\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u5883\u73fe\u5728\u770b\u4f86\u904e\u5ea6\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u53ef\u56e0\u61c9\u300c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u3001\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u300d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u8ce3\u51fa\u8fd1\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u6703\u5982\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u90a3\u6a23\u5feb\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u80a1\u7968\u907f\u96aa<\/h3>\n\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u901a\u81a8\u56de\u5347\u81f3 3.1%\uff0c\u70ba 2024 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u4ee5\u4f86\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u5f71\u97ff\u3002WTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u5728\u4f9b\u7d66\u7591\u616e\u518d\u8d77\u4e0b\u89f8\u53ca\u6bcf\u6876 95 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f7f Fed \u95dc\u6ce8\u7684 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u95dc\u5361\u770b\u4f86\u4e0d\u7a69\u3002\u82e5\u6cb9\u50f9\u7a81\u7834\u8a72\u95dc\u9375\u6c34\u4f4d\u5c31\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff08options\uff0c\u8cb7\u65b9\u6709\u6b0a\u5229\u4f46\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u5c65\u7d04\u7684\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96 Fed \u7dad\u6301\u504f\u9df9\u7acb\u5834\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u907f\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6574\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8d77\u4f0f\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002VIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684 16 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\u9b91\u723e\u53ef\u80fd\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call option\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u53ef\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u8f03\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4fdd\u96aa\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u5e02\u5834\u7a81\u7136\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\n\n\u9577\u671f\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u5c0d\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f 2025 \u5e74\u63a8\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8207\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u3002Fed \u504f\u9df9\u5f0f\u7684\u66ab\u505c\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u6703\u58d3\u7e2e\u4ef0\u8cf4\u8f03\u4f4e\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u5982\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b 100 \u7b49\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put option\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53ef\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u662f\u8f03\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u51fa\u73fe\u56de\u6a94\u3002\n\n\u66f4\u504f\u7dca\u7684 Fed \u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6490\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u5df2\u626d\u8f49 2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u8dcc\u52e2\u3002\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u7e8c\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7b56\u7565\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5c0d\u90a3\u4e9b\u592e\u884c\u91cb\u51fa\u964d\u606f\u8a0a\u865f\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u5efa\u7acb\u4f60\u7684 VT Markets \u5373\u6642\u5e33\u6236<\/a>\u00a0\u4e26\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\u7acb\u523b\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5fb7\u9280\uff1aFed \u672c\u9031\u6599\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u4f46\u5c07\u8b66\u793a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\uff1b\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u504f\u300c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u904e\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u5b9c\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52d5\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u8ce3\u6b0a\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u591a\u982d\u907f\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40160\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}