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England\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u6709\u7406\u7531\u7dad\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u627f\u64d4\u8f03\u9577\u5b58\u7e8c\u671f\u9593\u90e8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u5165\u9577\u5929\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Long Gilt futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u672a\u4f86\u67d0\u65e5\u671f\u4ea4\u5272\u82f1\u570b\u9577\u50b5\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4f86\u8868\u9054\u3002\n\n\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7a7a\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u9ad8\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4\uff08Congressional Budget Office\uff0c\u8a55\u4f30\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u7684\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u9810\u6e2c\u8d64\u5b57\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u65bc GDP \u7684 5.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u5b58\u7e8c\u671f\u9593\u3002\u4f5c\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4f7f\u7528 10 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff0810-year Treasury note futures\uff09\u4f86\u6355\u6349\u8f03\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u907f\u514d\u904e\u5ea6\u66b4\u9732\u65bc\u66f4\u9577\u671f\u7684\u5229\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u5728\u4fe1\u7528\u50b5\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u504f\u597d\u6295\u8cc7\u7b49\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u6307\u6578\uff08US Corporate High Yield Index\uff09\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4e0a\u6708\u6536\u7a84\u81f3\u50c5 310 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0c1 \u57fa\u9ede = 0.01%\uff09\uff0c\u70ba 2025 \u5e74\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u5c0d\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u88dc\u511f\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u4fe1\u7528\u9055\u7d04\u4ea4\u63db\uff08CDS\uff0cCredit Default Swap\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u9055\u7d04\u4fdd\u96aa\uff1b\u8cb7\u65b9\u4ed8\u4fdd\u8cbb\u3001\u82e5\u767c\u751f\u9055\u7d04\u53ef\u7372\u8ce0\u4ed8\uff09\u4f86\u70ba\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u6307\u6578\u505a\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u770b\u597d\u6fb3\u6d32\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u4ee5\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u76ee\u524d\u8d70\u4f4e\u63a5\u8fd1 4%\uff0c\u5176\u9ad8\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08real 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