{"id":39906,"date":"2026-03-12T14:58:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39906\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T14:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:58:58","slug":"%e5%b8%83%e7%86%b1%e6%96%af%e5%9f%ba%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e6%ad%90%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c3%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e4%b8%8d%e8%ae%8a%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/39906\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u71b1\u65af\u57fa\u9810\u671f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c3\u6708\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e2d\u6771\u6230\u722d\u63a8\u5347\u6cb9\u50f9\u7591\u616e\u4e0b\u8a9e\u6c23\u5c07\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e"},"content":{"rendered":"ING \u9810\u671f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08European Central Bank\uff0cECB\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728 3 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u6703\u8b70\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4f46\u6703\u7528\u66f4\u5f37\u786c\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u8ac7\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u3002ING \u628a\u9019\u500b\u8f49\u8b8a\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u548c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u9023\u7d50\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u4e26\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u8b93\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77 2022 \u5e74\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\uff08energy shock\uff0c\u6307\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002  \n\n\u91cd\u9ede\u9810\u671f\u6703\u5f9e\u300c\u964d\u606f\u300d\u8f49\u5411\u300c\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\u8207\u300c\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u300d\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u6c11\u773e\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5be6\u969b\u5b9a\u50f9\u8207\u85aa\u8cc7\u8ac7\u5224\uff09\u3002ING \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8b8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u8f03\u4e0d\u6703\u4e3b\u5c0e\u672c\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u6cb9\u50f9\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>  \nING \u6307\u51fa\u6cb9\u50f9\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u5df2\u5728\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8b8a\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93 ECB \u6700\u65b0\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5728\u767c\u5e03\u5f8c\u4e0d\u4e45\u5c31\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5920\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u793a\uff0cECB \u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7528\u591a\u7a2e\u6cb9\u50f9\u60c5\u5883\uff08scenarios\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8def\u5f91\uff09\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\u98a8\u96aa\u3002  \n\nING \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u300c\u85aa\u8cc7\u2014\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u300d\uff08wage\u2011price spiral\uff0c\u85aa\u8cc7\u4e0a\u5347\u63a8\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u8207\u552e\u50f9\u3001\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u53c8\u4fc3\u4f7f\u85aa\u8cc7\u518d\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\uff09\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u5b83\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u8981\u9053\uff09\u88ab\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6578\u6708\u5167\u5347\u5230\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u904b\u8f38\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff08supply chains\uff0c\u5f9e\u539f\u6599\u5230\u751f\u7522\u3001\u7269\u6d41\u3001\u96f6\u552e\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u4f9b\u8ca8\u6d41\u7a0b\uff09\u9020\u6210\u9023\u9396\u5f71\u97ff\u3002  \n\n\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0cING \u8868\u793a ECB \u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8003\u616e\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u6b21\u6216\u5169\u6b21\u3002\u5b83\u9810\u671f ECB \u6703\u900f\u904e\u5c0d\u5916\u6e9d\u901a\u4f86\u300c\u7a69\u4f4f\u9810\u671f\u300d\uff08anchored expectations\uff0c\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u6c11\u773e\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u5931\u63a7\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u9810\u671f\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7\uff08Christine Lagarde\uff0cECB \u7e3d\u88c1\uff09\u6703\u91cd\u8907\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u8655\u5728\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u300d\uff08\u201cgood place\u201d\uff09\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u3002  \n\n<h3>\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>  \n\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u6b63\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\uff1a\u5357\u6d77\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u5e72\u64fe\u91cd\u8981\u822a\u904b\u8def\u7dda\uff0c\u63a8\u5347\u6cb9\u50f9\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u8d85\u904e 12%\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7d04\u6bcf\u6876 87 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u7a81\u7834\u5e02\u5834\u5f88\u5728\u610f\u7684 90 \u7f8e\u5143\u95dc\u5361\u3002\u9019\u500b\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u5e7e\u9031\u524d\u9810\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u5feb\u3002  \n\n\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u654f\u611f\u6642\u9ede\uff1a2 \u6708\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u81a8\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u4ecd\u5728 2.6%\uff08sticky\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u81a8\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u9ecf\u8457\u5728\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\uff09\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc ECB 2% \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u95dc\u65bc\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u88ab\u64f1\u7f6e\u3002  \n\n\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative 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\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff08repricing\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u8abf\u6574\u5230\u65b0\u60c5\u5883\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u50ac\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u3002  \n\n\u91cd\u9ede\u53ef\u653e\u5728\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u5229\u7387\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5 Euribor \u671f\u8ca8\uff08Euribor futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b50\u5143\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u80fd\u5728\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u4e0d\u518d\u4e0b\u6ed1\u6642\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5229\u8b8a\u52d5\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u592e\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u7528\u66f4\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u5f37\u8abf\u6297\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\u4f86\u7a69\u4f4f\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a 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