{"id":39815,"date":"2026-03-11T19:58:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T19:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39815\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T19:58:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T19:58:51","slug":"bob-savage%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e4%b8%8b%ef%bc%8c%e6%96%b0%e8%88%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%82%b5%e5%88%b8%e9%81%ad%e5%88%b0%e5%bb%a3%e6%b3%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/live-updates\/39815\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Savage\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u50b5\u5238\u906d\u5230\u5ee3\u6cdb\u62cb\u552e\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u8207\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY \u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u56e0\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\uff08\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u66f4\u6015\u98a8\u96aa\u3001\u50be\u5411\u4fdd\u5b88\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\uff08EM\uff0c\u6307\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u884c\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u51fa\u73fe\u540c\u6b65\u62cb\u552e\u3002\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u50b5\u5238\uff08\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\uff1a\u4ee5\u5229\u606f\u6536\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u5df2\u8f49\u70ba\u666e\u904d\u6de8\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u8cc7\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\uff08Treasuries\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\uff08Bunds\uff1a\u5fb7\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u7b49\u54c1\u8cea\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684 G10 \u8cc7\u7522\uff08G10\uff1a\u4e3b\u8981\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u8ca8\u5e63\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u3002\n\n\u9019\u6ce2\u8d70\u52e2\u626d\u8f49\u4e86\u5148\u524d\u628a\u8cc7\u91d1\u5206\u6563\u5230\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u9577\u5929\u671f\u50b5\u5238\uff08duration\uff1a\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff1b\u5929\u671f\u8d8a\u9577\u901a\u5e38\u8d8a\u654f\u611f\uff09\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4e26\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u8de8\u5340\u57df\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ce3\u58d3\uff08\u4ee5\u5e73\u6ed1\u5f8c\u6578\u64da\u8861\u91cf\uff1a\u628a\u77ed\u671f\u96dc\u8a0a\u5e73\u5747\u5316\uff0c\u8b93\u8da8\u52e2\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u63d0\u5230\u885d\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u9010\u6b65\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u8ce3\u58d3\u7bc4\u570d\u4ecd\u5728\u64f4\u5927\u3002\n\n<h3>\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u50b5\u5238\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u6539\u8b8a<\/h3>\nBNY \u6700\u65b0\u66f4\u65b0\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5c11\u6578\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u5916\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u90fd\u51fa\u73fe\u6de8\u8ce3\u51fa\u3002\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\uff0c\u53e6\u6709\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u6838\u5fc3 G10 \u6301\u5009\uff08\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u66f4\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5df2\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728\u4e09\u500b\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u5340\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0a\u9031\u7684\u8ce3\u58d3\u4ee5\u300c\u9031\u5ea6\u5e73\u6ed1\u300d\u53e3\u5f91\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5f37\u3002\u66f4\u65b0\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u8da8\u52e2\u8207\u4e0a\u9031\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u4e4b\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u95dc\u806f\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5347\u7d1a\u5f8c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u62cb\u552e\u5f8c\u7e8c\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u662f\u81ea 2013 \u5e74\u300c\u7e2e\u6e1b\u6050\u614c\u300d\uff08Taper Tantrum\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6697\u793a\u6e1b\u5c11\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u8cb7\u50b5\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u50cf iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF\uff08EMB\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7f8e\u5143\u8a08\u50f9\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff0cETF\uff1a\u53ef\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u50cf\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u6a23\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u5728\u55ae\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u51fa\u8d85\u904e 50 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5165\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\uff0c\u4f7f 10 \u5e74\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08yield\uff1a\u50b5\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u5728 1 \u6708\u4e00\u5ea6\u8dcc\u7834 3.8%\uff0c\u4f86\u5230\u81ea 2025 \u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\n\n\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u5929 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 11 \u65e5\uff0c\u885d\u7a81\u5df2\u7de9\u548c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7126\u9ede\u61c9\u653e\u5728\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8d77\u4f0f\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u3002VIX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u80a1\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u5728\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\u5f9e\u5e73\u975c\u7684 14 \u98c6\u5230 28 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1 20 \u7684\u5340\u9593\uff0c\u5e36\u4f86\u8ce3\u51fa\u504f\u8cb4\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff1a\u7d66\u4f60\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u524d\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\/\u8ce3\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5728\u8f03\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff08\u5982 S&#038;P 500\uff09\u4e0a\u8ce3\u51fa\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put\uff1a\u6a19\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u5be6\u969b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\n\n\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u4e0d\u5206\u597d\u58de\u4e00\u8d77\u8ce3\u300d\uff08indiscriminate\uff1a\u4e0d\u6311\u6a19\u7684\u3001\u5168\u9762\u62cb\u552e\uff09\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8ce3\u58d3\u9020\u6210\u50f9\u683c\u932f\u4f4d\uff08dislocations\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u504f\u96e2\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6216\u6b63\u5e38\u95dc\u4fc2\uff09\u3002\u50cf\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u9019\u4e9b\u8207\u885d\u7a81\u76f4\u63a5\u95dc\u806f\u4e0d\u5927\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4fe1\u7528\u9055\u7d04\u4ea4\u63db\uff08CDS\uff1a\u4e00\u7a2e\u4fdd\u96aa\u578b\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u6295\u6a5f\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u5229\u5dee\u4e5f\u8ddf\u8457\u64f4\u5927\uff1bCDX \u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6578\uff08\u4ee5\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834 CDS \u7d44\u6210\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u8d85\u904e 75 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis point\uff1a1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01%\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u6642\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u8cb7\u9032\u7279\u5b9a\u570b\u5bb6 ETF \u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call\uff1a\u6a19\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6311\u9078\u88ab\u904e\u5ea6\u8ce3\u51fa\u4f46\u570b\u5167\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff08fundamentals\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u8ca1\u653f\u7b49\u652f\u6490\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\u4ecd\u5f37\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5176\u53cd\u5f48\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsglobal.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u63a8\u5347\u907f\u96aa\u6f6e\uff1a\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u906d\u540c\u6b65\u62cb\u552e\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u7b49\u6838\u5fc3G10\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u6700\u5f37\u8ce3\u58d3\u81f4\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u3001\u50f9\u683c\u932f\u4f4d\uff1b\u6ce2\u52d5\u56de\u843d\u5f8c\u53ef\u4f3a\u6a5f\u5e03\u5c40\u53cd\u5f48\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}